Bellator 282 Main Event Odds and Betting Pick

Bellator 282 is headlined with Gregard Mousasi’s title defense against the undefeated Johnny Eblen. We’re lookin at all the Mousasi vs Eblen odds, breaking down our top Bellator betting picks. 

How to Watch and Bet on Mousasi vs Eblen 

Our top bet button takes you to bovada, one of the top MMA betting sites. Tune into the fight on Showtime, and place your bet before 11:00 PM ET to make sure you’re in on the action by the main event. 

Top Mousasi vs Eblen Prediction

The Mousasi money line at -275 has an implied 73.3% chance of success and $36.36 in winnings per $100 wagered. He’s proven himself against top middleweight talent, including ranked UFC competitors. Eblen has only faced two opponents in the Bellator top ten, and has a long way to go before he’s on Mousasi’s level. 

Top Bet for Eblen Fans

The Eblen money line has a fine payout, but the Over 1.5 rounds prop at -270 covers the majority of Mousasi’s wins for Bellator and the most common Eblen strategy of winning via control points over a hard fought decision. 

Eblen vs Mousasi Over Under Betting Odds Table 

Bet Available at Bovada Over, Yes Odds Under, No Odds 
1.5 Rounds -270 +180
2.5 Rounds -140 EVEN
3.5 Rounds -105 -135
4.5 Rounds  +125 -165
Will the Fight Go the Distance  +137 -180

Eblens 11 fight winning streak has seen five decisions over the last eight fights. He’s scored two Bellator knockouts over Daniel Madrid and Collin Huckbody. Neither fighter has Bellator top ten or UFC level experience. The Bellator 282 odds break even at the Under 2.5 rounds prop bet, which captures eight of Mousasi’s last thirteen bouts. 

Alternate Round Betting for Mousasi vs Eblen

Fighter Gregard Mousasi  Johnny Eblen
Round 1,2 or 3 Finish +110 +400
Round 4, 5 or Decision +140 +900
Draw +6600 +6600

The Mousasi in rounds 1,2 or 3 bet pays out just slightly more than the under 2.5 rounds bet, so taking this prop isn’t much better than having a bit of insurance against the Eblen upset. The under or over 2.5 rounds prop is far more secure than either of the Alternate Round props. 

Method of Victory Betting Odds for Mousasi vs Eblen 

Fighter  Gregard Mousasi  Johnny Eblen 
TKO  +125 +600
Submission  +600 +1500
Points (Decision)  +250 +500
Money Line  -275 +210
Draw  +6600 +6600

Bellator 282 betting odds for a Mousasi knockout look show that Eblen is undefeated, but untested. Of the fighters Eblen faced for Bellator, Taylor Johnson has the most TKO’s at 5. Mousasi’s career 28 KOs is more than Eblens combined Bellator opponents. 

Mousasi vs Eblen Tale of the Tape 

Fighter Gregard ‘The Dreamcatcher’ Mousasi  Johnny ‘Diamond Hands’ Eblen 
Age 36 30
Height 6’2’’ 6’3’’
Reach/Stance 76’’ 74’’
Record 49-7-2 11-0
Submissions/TKO  12/28 1/5
Fighter Training Camp Red Devil International,  Jurojin, Kops Gym   American Top Team 

Eblens six year youth advantage could be a factor, especially if he can draw the fight out. It’s one of the reasons we’ve prioritized the over prop bets. Eblen is patient, and will look to extend the fight if he can. Mousasi faded in rounds four and five against Rafael Lovato Jr. Look to see Eblen shooting less often to avoid the over sprawl finishes of Mousasi. If his 12 submission wins, six have been guillotines and triangle chokes after takedown attempts from his opponent. 

You can see that Mousasi looks healthy and in shape, not losing any visible conditioning with his age. 

MMA Breakdown for Mousasi vs Eblen

Gregard doesn’t allow for many slip ups. This knockout off the shot attempt shows his aggression and ground striking power. Mousasi has finished his last two via TKO, but more importantly, his methods of moving forward to manage distance will make it tough for Eblen to employ his wrestling.

Mousasi in top position makes anyone look to avoid grappling. His mount striking is second to none. Look at the short, sharp right hand that initiated this whole exchange. In the midst of a leg lock defense, Mousasi landed a surprising shot that stung his opponent, initiating the finish. 

Eblen employs some wild striking to finish opponents. This kind of head down and center combination punching isn’t going to fly against the champ. If Eblen hasn’t managed to develop an effective jab, he’s going to learn what decent counterpunching looks like. 

Here’s Mousasi against Salter, the fighter that Eblen defeated via decision. The Eblen fight with Salter was close and competitive, but Mousasi looked fresh and undamaged in the third round. Mousasi beat Salter in each round and it could have been stopped in the second. 

Bet the Mousasi Money line or Over 1.5 rounds if you believe Eblen is ready. iFrom where we’re sitting, Mousasi will be champ as long as he wants to be. 

Jacob Clark / Author

Jacob Clark had a 15 year career as a professional MMA fighter, coach, and Greg Jackson’s alum. Now, TikTok’s 12th most important BJJ influencer is bringing his sports and betting knowledge to you here at TheSportsGeek. He spends his time cooking vietnamese food and playing D&D with his family. You can meet him at jiu-jitsu open mats all over Indiana.

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