It’s time for the number one contender to earn his shot at the title. We’re analyzing the odds for Blachowicz vs Rakic, UFC Fight Night’s main event for May 14th, 2022. Wagers must be placed by 11:55 PM ET. We’ve looked at the fight tape and stats to offer our top betting pick.
UFC Main Event: Blachowicz vs Rakic Betting Pick
Jan Blachowicz is the former champion, and underestimated time and again. He’s upset favorites in five UFC appearances across eight years, and we think he’ll do it again.
Rakic, while athletic and powerful, shows some key defensive issues that will cost him the fight to the crafty veteran.
Blachowicz vs Rakic Betting Odds, Money Lines and Props
|Bet Available at Bovada||Odds|
|Blachowicz Money Line||+157|
|Rakic Money Line||-200|
|Blachowicz by Points||+400|
|Rakic by TKO||+250|
|Over 1.5 Rounds||-275|
|Over 2.5 Rounds||-165|
|Under 2.5 Rounds||+125|
|Over 3.5 Rounds||-115|
|Under 3.5 Rounds||-115|
Blachowicz has fallen to a stronger underdog position, 13 points since monday. Jan has more high profile wins and more TKOs at the UFC level. Rakic has gone up nearly 50 points since opening odds were released, now paying $50 per $100 wagered. For more on understanding MMA odds, start with our MMA Guide.
Fight Length for Rakic vs Blachowicz
Blachowicz has only seen two decisions in his last five fights- one with a high level kickboxer in Adesanya and one with grappler Jacare Souza. Both fights were five round decisions. Rakic has yet to fight a five round decision. The longer the bout, the more it should favor Blachowicz. I believe the Over 1.5 Rounds betting prop could be a good bet, but both fighters have their share of early knockouts, forcing us to avoid it as our betting pick.
Tale of the Tape for Blachowicz vs Rakic
|Fighter||Jan Blachowicz||Aleksandar ‘Rocket’ Rakic|
|Reach/Stance||78’’ Orthodox||78’’ Orthodox|
|Submissions/TKO in UFC||2/4||0/2|
|Fighter Training Camp||Berkut WCA Fight Team||American Top Team, Gym 23|
|Strikes Landed/Absorbed Per Minute||3.5/2.7||4.2/2.2|
|Takedown Average per Fifteen Minutes||1.14||.75|
|Strikes Landed in Last 3 Fights||172||155|
|Takedown Defense %||65%||90%|
Despite fighting three decisions, Rakic has less punch output when compared to Jan. Blachowicz has a high striking rate, and forces his opponent’s to engage him early and often. While many factors are the same, Rakic will be better at avoiding the bottom position on the ground. He gave up 2 takedowns inside the UFC to Barroso in his debut, both in the second round.
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Blachowicz and Rakic vs Santos
Santos knocked out Jan in the third round back in 2019, but was out striking him prior to that. Jan struggled to deal with Santos’ style, and couldn’t seem to land much of anything. Santos was having a very one night stand as well.
Rakic was outstruck by Santos but won the decision. The fight was razor close,with Santos winning round 3 and Rakic winning round 1. Rakic didn’t take Santos’ best shots, and ultimately, Thiago Santos body and performances haven’t been the same after the loss to Jon Jones, just after his win over Blachowicz.
MMA Breakdown for Blachowicz vs Rakic
Jan puts Reyez down with a jab in this exchange. A punch that leads to a ground striking flurry. He’s a fighter that isn’t afraid to be in the pocket and find out who can land. This is coming just after Reyez loses the controversial decision against Jon Jones, outlanding the champion in three of five rounds.
— UFC Europe (@UFCEurope) May 10, 2022
Rakic and Jan both use shift steps to move into strikes. Shift steps include standing outside of range, and switching stances to make your strikes connect. As both fighters move to the inside, it will be more of a test of chins than a battle for technical superiority. I see both fighters connecting early and often.
🚨 𝗦 𝗨 𝗡 𝗗 𝗔 𝗬 🚨
— UFC_Asia (@UFC_Asia) May 11, 2022
Rakic likes to drop his lead hand while throwing a cross. Expect Blachowicz to look for the lead head kick or right hook counter as he steps away from the strike. Rakic is the superior athlete, but I believe Jan’s ring craft and fight game plan will win the day.
Anyone else really excited for the return of Aleksandar Rakic this weekend?
He hasn’t fought in over a year where he beat Thiago Santos on the undercard of Blachowicz vs. Adesanya.
He now takes on Blachowicz 14 months later.
— The MMA Media (@The_MMA_Media) May 11, 2022