Blachowicz vs Rakic UFC Odds and Betting Pick

It’s time for the number one contender to earn his shot at the title. We’re analyzing the odds for Blachowicz vs Rakic, UFC Fight Night’s main event for May 14th, 2022. Wagers must be placed by 11:55 PM ET. We’ve looked at the fight tape and stats to offer our top betting pick. 

UFC Main Event: Blachowicz vs Rakic Betting Pick 

Jan Blachowicz is the former champion, and underestimated time and again. He’s upset favorites in five UFC appearances across eight years, and we think he’ll do it again. 
Rakic, while athletic and powerful, shows some key defensive issues that will cost him the fight to the crafty veteran. 

Blachowicz vs Rakic Betting Odds, Money Lines and Props

Bet Available at Bovada Odds  
Blachowicz Money Line +157
Rakic Money Line -200
Blachowicz by Points  +400
Rakic by TKO  +250
Over 1.5 Rounds  -275
Over 2.5 Rounds -165
Under 2.5 Rounds  +125
Over 3.5 Rounds  -115
Under 3.5 Rounds  -115

Blachowicz has fallen to a stronger underdog position, 13 points since monday. Jan has more high profile wins and more TKOs at the UFC level. Rakic has gone up nearly 50 points since opening odds were released, now paying $50 per $100 wagered. For more on understanding MMA odds, start with our MMA Guide.

Fight Length for Rakic vs Blachowicz

Blachowicz has only seen two decisions in his last five fights- one with a high level kickboxer in Adesanya and one with grappler Jacare Souza. Both fights were five round decisions. Rakic has yet to fight a five round decision. The longer the bout, the more it should favor Blachowicz. I believe the Over 1.5 Rounds betting prop could be a good bet, but both fighters have their share of early knockouts, forcing us to avoid it as our betting pick. 

Tale of the Tape for Blachowicz vs Rakic

Fighter Jan Blachowicz Aleksandar ‘Rocket’ Rakic 
Age 39 30
Height 6’2’’ 6’4’’
Reach/Stance 78’’ Orthodox  78’’ Orthodox 
Record 28-9 14-2
Submissions/TKO in UFC 2/4 0/2
Fighter Training Camp Berkut WCA Fight Team  American Top Team, Gym 23
Strikes Landed/Absorbed Per Minute 3.5/2.7 4.2/2.2
Takedown Average per Fifteen Minutes  1.14 .75
Strikes Landed in Last 3 Fights 172 155
Takedown Defense % 65% 90%

Despite fighting three decisions, Rakic has less punch output when compared to Jan. Blachowicz has a high striking rate, and forces his opponent’s to engage him early and often. While many factors are the same, Rakic will be better at avoiding the bottom position on the ground. He gave up 2 takedowns inside the UFC to Barroso in his debut, both in the second round. 
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Blachowicz and Rakic vs Santos

Santos knocked out Jan in the third round back in 2019, but was out striking him prior to that. Jan struggled to deal with Santos’ style, and couldn’t seem to land much of anything. Santos was having a very one night stand as well.
Rakic was outstruck by Santos but won the decision. The fight was razor close,with Santos winning round 3 and Rakic winning round 1. Rakic didn’t take Santos’ best shots, and ultimately, Thiago Santos body and performances haven’t been the same after the loss to Jon Jones, just after his win over Blachowicz. 

MMA Breakdown for Blachowicz vs Rakic 

Jan puts Reyez down with a jab in this exchange. A punch that leads to a ground striking flurry. He’s a fighter that isn’t afraid to be in the pocket and find out who can land. This is coming just after Reyez loses the controversial decision against Jon Jones, outlanding the champion in three of five rounds. 

Rakic and Jan both use shift steps to move into strikes. Shift steps include standing outside of range, and switching stances to make your strikes connect. As both fighters move to the inside, it will be more of a test of chins than a battle for technical superiority. I see both fighters connecting early and often. 

Rakic likes to drop his lead hand while throwing a cross. Expect Blachowicz to look for the lead head kick or right hook counter as he steps away from the strike. Rakic is the superior athlete, but I believe Jan’s ring craft and fight game plan will win the day. 

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Jacob Clark / Author

Jacob Clark had a 15 year career as a professional MMA fighter, coach, and Greg Jackson’s alum. Now, TikTok’s 12th most important BJJ influencer is bringing his sports and betting knowledge to you here at TheSportsGeek. He spends his time cooking vietnamese food and playing D&D with his family. You can meet him at jiu-jitsu open mats all over Indiana.

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