Brave CF 54: Amin Ayoub vs Ahmed Amir Main Event Pick and Analysis

The BCF Lightweight Championship is on the line with two of the middle east’s ranked welterweights competing for the belt. The champion Amin Ayoub is a talented grappler and wrestler with newly steeled conditioning.

Ahmed Amir is a scrappy new lightweight hoping to make his mark before he ages out of any serious competition. We’re going over the stats, odds, past fights, and fighting style of each fighter and choosing a bet based on the full analysis.

Amin Ayoub vs Ahmed Amir Odds and Props

Fighter Moneylines and Payout per Dollar Wagered Over/Under 2 1/2
Amin Ayoub -350, $0.29 NA
Ahmed Amir +275, $2.75 NA

No prop bets are currently available in this fight.

Amir is a strong favorite:
Especially considering how even their records are: In the Middle East, Amin is the #2 ranked welterweight while Amir is the #18. This would be a massive jump in competition for Amir.

Ahmed pays out plenty, but is there any chance of him winning? As we dig into the stats, we’ll determine if the risk is worth the payout.

Tale of the Tape for Amin Ayoub vs Ahmed Amir

  Amin Ayoub Ahmed Amir
Age 25 30
Height 5’11’’ 5’9’’
MMA record 16-4 11-3-1
SUB/TKO 8/2 7/2
Inactivity 174 370
Loses by 4 Decisions 1 Decision 2 TKO

Amin takes the height and age advantages. He’s won less and lost more fights, and we’ll dive into whether or not it was a different level of competition later.

Submission and TKO victories are close.:
Amin has been more active, and has never been knocked out. Ahmed has fought once a year for the last three, and twice a year in 2018 and 2017.

It’s clear the submission game may play a factor, but I’m more concerned with Ahmed’s ability to avoid the knockout.

Amin Ayoub vs Ahmed Amir Recent Bouts

Amin has won his last five, and is on a nine fight winning streak.

Ahmed is 2-2-1 of his last five.

Note that Amin has won six fights since the beginning of 2019. Ahmed’s last five span all the way back to 2018. It’s clear he’s taken plenty of time to find the right fights but that hasn’t served him. Amin has the momentum.

  • Notable opponent’s for Amin include 10-2 ​​Mashrabjon Ruziboev and 7-1 Ahmad Labban.
  • Notable opponent’s for Ahmed include then 6-2, now 6-4 Erik Carlson.

After close examination of their records, Ahmed hasn’t fought near the opponent caliber of Amin.

Who’s The Better Fighter Between Amin Ayoub vs Ahmed Amir?

Amin Ayoub’s Fighting Style

Amin has crisp transitions between striking and grappling. He throws many salat or muay thai inspired strikes like spinning back kicks, and grounded shin strikes to the head.

He shift steps into strikes using knees and kicks, similar to something Petr Yan likes to do.

When taken down, Amin likes to lay on his back and hunt for guard submissions. He’s quite successful, though I’d like to see him utilizing a technical stand up against stronger wrestlers or defensive BJJ players like Ahmed.

Ahmed Amir’s Fighting Style

Ahmed’s striking is unorthodox and unrefined. He’s not going to be outboxing Amin. He has solid body lock takedowns and often gets his submission wins from the top position.

He’s often too focused on passing guard to do good ground and pound damage, and when he’s on bottom position he holds on to mitigate damage rather than setting up sweeps. He will wrestle out of the bottom position when applicable.

He has serious heart, but that often means a fighter accumulates more punches early in their career. Remember that each beating you take causes your overall durability to drop.

Amin Ayoub vs Ahmed Amir Current Fight Camps

A final nail in the coffin for Ahmed Amir is that Amin’s fight camp is Bulgarian Top Team.

One of the best fight teams in Eastern Europe, Bulgarian Top Team has produced dozens of ACA, ACB and Bellator competitors.

Ahmed is training out of Saracens team. It’s a great team of new fighters. They’ve produced eight fighters total, and may have something down the road. It’s currently not competitive at the highest levels.

My Final Pick for Amin Ayoub vs Ahmed Amir:
Amin Ayoub!

Odds are courtesy of BetOnline. Check out our BetOnline review here

I pick Amin Ayoub -350

It’s clear that Amir is the more talented fighter. Ahmed could win at this new weight class. He was far too small for welterweight and was often outsized by opponents with a major reach and height advantage.

Jacob Clark / Author

Jacob Clark had a 15 year career as a professional MMA fighter, coach, and Greg Jackson’s alum. Now, TikTok’s 12th most important BJJ influencer is bringing his sports and betting knowledge to you here at TheSportsGeek. He spends his time cooking vietnamese food and playing D&D with his family. You can meet him at jiu-jitsu open mats all over Indiana.

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