UFC Betting Pick: Chan Sung Jun vs Brian Ortega

This week’s main event from Fight Island is Abu Dhabi is a fight fans have been waiting to see for a year.

These two men signed up to fight each other last September, and here we are in mid-October of 2020 and it is finally going down.

Frankie Edgar stepped in for the injured Brian Ortega for a Christmas fight with the Korean Zombie.

Chan Sung Jung proved to be too powerful for the aging legend and put him away in the first round, something Brian Ortega was also able to do a couple of years earlier.

There has been a bunch of drama leading up to this fight.

Jay Park, a Korean rapper and true OG to the K-pop game, was slapped by Brian Ortega…

An international incident, man?

Why would Ortega do that?

Talk spit, get hit.

Just like the Diaz brothers don’t play games, Brian doesn’t either.

Sure, he is reformed now but his roots are the streets.

Park didn’t really get personal so I don’t think there should have been any physical consequences.

Well, it was stupid, anyway, to hit someone if you’re not physically threatened.

All Park said as The Korean Zombie’s new manager was that Brian was dodging the fight and he wasn’t really injured.

Big deal, man. Ortega is going to have to be like a duck and let that water roll on off.

Sans drama, this is still one of the most anticipated UFC fights of 2020.

Let’s take a look at the tale of the tape and note any major differences.

Chan Sung Jung Brian Ortega
Fight Record: 16-5 Fight Record: 14-1
Age: 33 Age: 29
Height: 5’7” Height: 5’8”
Reach: 72” Reach: 69”
From: Pohang, South Korea From: Los Angeles, California
Fight Camp: Zombie MMA Fight Camp: Huntington Beach Ultimate Training Center

As you can see, Brian is an inch taller but The Zombie has very long arms and wide shoulders as well.

Brian has just one loss on his pro record and that was in his last fight with Max Holloway for the UFC’s Featherweight World Title.

Ortega was completely beaten down in that fight by Max who overloaded him with volume controlled by his pace and the superior range.

It’s been nearly two years since Brian was “Blessed” with the worst Christmas present ever.

That wasn’t pretty but I believe Ortega has a strong enough character to grow from it and I think we will see the best Brian Ortega on Saturday night that we have ever witnessed.

Pardon my conspiratory thoughts, but I am starting to connect the dots as they say.

Brian Ortega overreacted and slapped a civilian and manager of a UFC fighter for what?

Because they questioned his knee injury.

If no surgery, then why can’t you fight?

It’s an understandable question that undoubtedly received a ridiculous response.

I understand that there is a certain level of insecurity that comes from having to pull out of a fight.

You do feel kinda like a punk even though you know you would be severely compromised if you decide to go on with the fight.

There is that small level of insecurity but most grown-ups should still be able to let it go if someone pokes at the bear.

We have all been on the giving and receiving end of a joke that hit a little too close to home and are familiar with how we react to such.

I don’t think Brian Ortega hurt his knee that badly.

He has changed fight camps since then.

He has stated that he wouldn’t name names but someone in his circle was toxic and it was affecting the entire process.

That is typical fighter stuff.

It is hard for them to blame themselves especially publicly because it is a constant sell.

They are always selling themselves and you are only as good as your last fight.

Also, they have to be extremely confident. If they don’t believe they can and will beat anyone, they are in the wrong sport.

It sounds completely irrational and ridiculous but it’s fighting.

What do you expect?

Speculation aside, Brian is posting on social media and has stated in interviews that he is training in Huntington Beach at the HB Ultimate Training Center.

Tiki Ghosen, his manager, and coach is down there.

He goes way back and knows the game as well as anyone.

Cub Swanson is in that camp as well and boy oh boy, what depth of knowledge!

Ortega has looked good on the focus mitts lately. I have always thought he had really good power.

Brian, along with The Korean Zombie, are the only fighters to ever finish The Answer.

Both men can crack but I give the edge to Zombie.

Both can submit you but I give the edge to Brian.

Now, who is the better wrestler?

The Korean Zombie has 77% takedown defense and unless Brian Ortega has made serious strides, he will likely have a very hard time getting the South Korean to the mat.

I don’t see how he couldn’t have made such strides.

He was a phenom is BJJ so why couldn’t he do the same in wrestling?

He’s a good athlete.

I think the time off is really going to help Brian Ortega in this fight.

He will probably lose the first round but The Zombie could slow down if he is throwing a lot of big shots.

Here is the difference between Max and Chan Sung Jung on the feet, though.

Max is a volume guy.

The Zombie is a knockout guy.

Holloway never had to come out of his frame to jab up and 1-2 Ortega to death for 5 rounds.

He never loaded up so Ortega never had a chance to get his hands on him.

Max also has legendary takedown defense.

I believe that Ortega matches up a lot better with The Korean Zombie.

T-city got hit with 290 significant strikes in that fight, though, so a massive improvement in performance could still leave him coming up short.

Ortega’s chin has been solid and he has a massive caveman head and jaw so it is going to take a perfect shot from The Zombie to put him away, in my opinion.

Let’s look at the betting odds provided to us by the good folks over at BetOnline.AG.

Betting Odds

Moneyline

  • Chan Sung Jung (-180)
  • Brian Ortega (+160)
Round Total

  • Over 1.5 Rounds: (-200)
  • Under 1.5 Rounds: (+150)
Decision Prop

  • Fight goes (+195)
  • Fight doesn’t go (-275)

Brian Ortega has some value here and it is arguable that The Korean Zombie does as well.

Brian Ortega is incredibly durable. His cardio has been solid.

I think he can go the distance with The Zombie.

They will be in the bigger cage so there will be a few more square feet in which to move around.

You can get the fight going to a decision for nearly (+200).

That isn’t a bad line.

Also, if you’re just going to bet The Zombie straight (-180) then why don’t you bet the over 1.5 rounds at (-200)?

Both fighters are very durable.

Ortega has never been KO’ed and The Zombie never submitted. The Zombie has done some submitting of his own though of course.

You can get over 2.5 rounds at (+100) at 5dimes.EU.

That is your pick there.

I wanted to give you guys Ortega because I really think this fight should be closer to a pick’em.

Brian can knock him out.

He has done it to some of the most durable chins in the sport.

And The Zombie has been finished with strikes 3 times in the past.

Ortega has several routes to victory.

Path to Victory

Brian Ortega

  • He can box him up and knock him out.
  • He can maybe take The Zombie down and control him on his way to a decision win.
  • He can take him down and submit him.
  • He can jump his back standing and work from there.
  • He has several options so betting the method of victory isn’t the smartest way to go.

Chan Sung Jung

  • He can knock him out.
  • He can out-strike Brian on his way to a decision.
  • That is about it, though.
  • I don’t see him engaging with Ortega on the mat unless he already has him hurt.

Prediction

I like Jung by decision for (+400).

I also like Brian Ortega straight up at (+160).

I like the over 2.5 rounds better, though.

Give me that at even money.

My Pick
Over 2.5 Rounds

In Conclusion

Lots of variables, huh?

I apologize for being a little all over the place.

There are a lot of unknowns coming into this fight and I have theorized at length about most of them.

Any way you cut it, this is an intriguing fight.

The winner will probably get a title shot and in my opinion, should be the favorite over the current champ, Alex The Great Volkanoski.

Brian has good boxing and good power.

Max was his krypto, though.

Both fighters are tremendous martial artists.

This one, like many before and ahead, will likely come down to wrestling.

Get your bets in now and enjoy the scrap on Saturday!

Mike Pruitt / Author

Mike has been covering sports professionally since 2017 but on the amateur scene for 25 years since when he was 12. Before the internet changed the world, he would keep detailed statistical box scores of NFL and NBA contests, write recaps, and voluntarily commentate games and fights alone in his room. Mike's military experience, Bachelors Degree, and employment thereafter were always rooted in engineering, science, and teaching. Now he enjoys being able to express himself through writing about football, golf, and car racing among other sports but most of all fighting as his life has been rooted in mixed martial arts including competing and teaching for the past 15 years.