Chimaev vs Burns UFC 273 Betting Pick

We’re diving deep on Chimaev vs Burns, a non-title fight at UFC 273 that’s getting serious hype. The UFC 273 odds have Chimaev as a solid favorite, but many of the prop bets offer more lucrative outcomes. Our UFC 273 Predictions and odds come from Bovada as of April 8th, 2022. Get your bets in before the fight airs 4/9/2022 at 11:30 PM ET. 

UFC 273 Chimaev vs Burns Betting Pick

Chimaev is the younger fighter on a serious finishing streak. He appears to have a strong advantage in both striking and grappling. Burns hasn’t defeated any fighters at the peak of their games, and at 35 appears to be slowing down significantly. 
Chimaev has strong physical advantages, and an x-factor that is tough to replicate, killer instinct and visible advantages in power. If you’re looking to place bets on the entire thirteen fight card, check out our UFC 273 preview

UFC 273 Odds and Prediction for Chimaev vs Burns

Fighter Khamzat ‘Borz’ Chimaev  Gilbert Burns ‘Durinho’ 
Age 27 35
Height 6’2’’ 5’10’’
Reach/Stance 75’’ Orthodox  71’’ Orthodox 
Record 10-0 20-4
Submissions/TKO in UFC 2/2 4/3
Fighter Training Camp Tiger Muay Thai, Various Sanford MMA 
Strikes Landed/Absorbed per minute  8.6/.08 3.12/2.9
Takedown Offense/Defense % 66%/NA 36%/50%

You can’t make up these stats. Chimaev has been hit fewer than a tenth of a time per minute in his four fight UFC career. Burns has a great striking defense compared to most fighters. Especially in his bouts with Stephen Thompson, where he was only hit 19 times by the striker. In fact, many fighters are so tentative to engage with Burns that he stops them from landing anything significant. Over his last seven, only Usman has hit him more than 47 times, and most fighters hovered around twenty strikes landed. 
Still, Gerald Meershaert has been competitive in the UFC, but was knocked out by Chimaev in seventeen seconds. Hingliang, who we thought might defeat Chimaev, was able to land no punches at all. This is a man that went the distance with Neil Magny, absolutely shut out by Chimaev. 
Burns will have his hands full in the grappling. Especially after reviewing footage of Burns conditioning. Frankly, he looks beat and unmotivated from the word go. He may be pushing his training, but his age is showing in this clip
UFC and Twitter are trending with this knockout from Burns.

But this was April 2018, when Burns was 31. Moret had no major UFC wins at the time.
Meanwhile, footage of Chimaev is a constant stream of the young fighter working over his training partners with nearly effortless levels of technique. 

UFC 273 Betting Odds and Prop Bets

Bet Available at Odds  
Khamzat Chimaev Money Line -575
Gilbert Burns Money Line +400
Over 1 ½ Rounds -130
Under 1 ½ Rounds  EVEN
Chimaev by TKO -115
Chimaev by Submission +300
Chimaev inside the Distance  -270
Chimaev in Round 1  +135
Over 2 ½ Rounds  +170
Under 2 ½ Rounds  -225
Chimaev by TKO or Decision -175

I’m not entertaining Burns win prop bets. Bovada hasn’t offered any and they don’t seem likely. Can he find a way to eke out a decision win? Maybe if Chimaev slips and twists an ankle, who knows. 
The under 2 ½ Rounds at -225 is a good bet. Chimaev has finished nearly all of his fights to date in that time frame. Some fighters have survived into the third, and even to a decision, but mostly they’re just holding on, grabbing gloves, and riding out the time. 
Burns should be swinging for TKOs when he isn’t on his back, and this should open up some stand up exchanges from Chimaev. If you’re concerned that Burns has a chance of clipping Chimaev (I am not) then the Under 2 ½ Rounds bet is safe. 
Chimaev Inside the Distance at -270 doubles your money from his money line bet. It’s the right choice given his even split of submission and knockout victories. I don’t think Burns has the takedown defense people think he does. Most fighters are just scared to grapple with him and his guillotines. Chimaev will not be. 
Last, doubling your money on Under 1 ½ Rounds is the highest risk I would take for this fight. You get only slightly less than a Chimaev in Round 1 prop bet, and you’re covered until 2:30 of round 2. Chimaev’s longest finish was the D’arce of John Phillips, a second round finish that still fell into the 1 ½ Rounds prop betting time range. 

Top Prop Betting Picks for Chimaev vs Burns

  • Under 1 ½ Rounds at +100 for higher risk and reward
  • Chimaev inside the distance for a slight boon against his money line
  • Under 2 ½ Rounds for a very likely -225 return, the safest and most accurate of the prop bets available 


UFC 273 MMA Breakdown for Chimaev vs Burns

Chimaev has only landed 112 punches across four fights, throwing many feints that results in a 77% striking accuracy. In addition his striking defense is 75%. How well can Burns do knowing those numbers, and what kind of combinations can Burns put together to stop Chimaev’s takedowns?

Chimaev’s boxing is better than Burns from a technical perspective. No wasted energy, simply touching the opponent.

Gilbert Burns Striking, Recent Career and Strengths

Burns landed half of his punches against Thompson while on the ground in top position, and about 25% of his strikes on Woodley from top position. These strikes will be all but negated against Chimaev, as I believe Burns can’t take top position for long enough to do damage against Borz. 
Burns has only a 46% striking accuracy, throwing shots from too far out of distance to be effective. In the Usman bout he landed 55 of 124 total shots, offering Usman top position for 100 seconds in round one for a total of 26 strikes absorbed on the canvas. Compared to the majority of Chimaev’s previous opponents, Burns has a world class ground game, however it isn’t one without major holes, and a lack of offensive damaging power. 

Gilbert Burns Record

In the Full Card Preview we go over the position of most Burns opponents. For instance with Woodley, he was the second in a four fight losing streak that ended the champion’s career, sending him off to fight Jake Paul. 
Burns has a solid ground game, and a scary catch submission game, one that would have been a threat to Chimaev in Burn’s early 30’s. Today, his performances are lacking snap over fighters on the tail end of their UFC career. 

Chimaev vs Burns Betting Pick Wrap Up

If you’re lost in understanding the prop bets, we clear it up here
Chimaev is going to fight Usman, if not in the next bout, soon after. This fight with Burns is a respectful protection of everything Kumaru has built. I would feel slighted as a fan if Chimaev was unable to fight Usaman before he retires the belt, and because of that I think this is the last time we’ll see Chimaev under -1000 without fighting the champion. 

Jacob Clark / Author

Jacob Clark had a 15 year career as a professional MMA fighter, coach, and Greg Jackson’s alum. Now, TikTok’s 12th most important BJJ influencer is bringing his sports and betting knowledge to you here at TheSportsGeek. He spends his time cooking vietnamese food and playing D&D with his family. You can meet him at jiu-jitsu open mats all over Indiana.

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