PFL Main Event Betting Pick: Collard vs Stephens

PFL regular season is back, and we’re covering the main event betting pick for Clay Collard vs Jeremy Stephens. Most sites are offering only Money line betting on this fight and the full PFL event. Place your bet by April 20th, 2022 at 10:30 PM to get in on the main event action. Collard vs Stephens odds come from Bovada, scroll to see our top pick and expert MMA breakdown. 

Top PFL Week 1: Collard vs Stephens Betting Prediction

Yes, Stevens is on a brutal five fight losing streak, but he was fighting the best the UFC had to offer. Bellator is another world, with Collard losing his last two matches to mid level boxers, and his last four boxing matches overall, I don’t think he has the hands to deal with Stephens. His win over Pettis, and his three round bout with Max Halloway were some of his best showings, but Stephens appears to have more of his career left, as Collard level of competition has been slowly declining. 

Tale of the Tape for Collard vs Stephens 

Fighter ‘Cassius’ Clay Collard  Jeremy ‘Lil Heathen’  Stephens
Money Line EVEN -130
Age 29 35
Height 5’11’’ 5’9’’
Reach/Stance 73’’ 71’’
Record 20-9, 1NC  28-19, 1NC
Submissions/TKO  3/10 2/19 
Fighter Training Camp The Pit Elevated Fight Team  Alliance MMA 

Stephens is the smaller, older fighter. He’s the favorite due to a much higher rate of finishing at high levels. His 21 career finishes have been primarily in the UFC. Stephens joined the UFC in 2007 and has stoppages over RDA, Marcus Davis and Dennis Bermudez among others. Collard had a short lived UFC career with no stoppages 2013 to 2014. He’s focused primarily on boxing over the past eight years, amassing a 9-6-3 record with few notable wins and four total knockouts. Stephens has a noticeable power and strength advantage when you’re watching their fight tape. 
Stephens pays out $77 per $100 wagered in comparison to Collard’s even, $100 per $100 wagered payout. 

Betting Odds History for Collard vs Stephens

Collard only has odds for his UFC and PFL appearances. His biggest upset win was over Anthony Pettis at +425, a controversial decision win. He ranged from -125 to +625 in the UFC, and has recently fumbled a decision against Raush Manfio at -175. Stephens has been the underdog in his last four losses after being upset by Jose Aldo at -117. He upset Doo Ho Choi at +145 and beat Gilbert Melendez at -110. The names on Stephen’s win column far outweigh Collard. 

PFL Collard vs Stephens Prediction and MMA Breakdown

Stephens’ aggression has been one of his main tools among victories. He’s a bit too small for some featherweight and lightweight matches, but his forward moving overhand strikes are fight-ending. His flying knees, slams and counter hooks have been proven dangerous time and again, and without a smart fight plan, many fighters end up folding under his ‘take one,land one’ fighting style. 

Collard has an issue with looking slow. He sits on the outside and has trouble finding his range for MMA, even though he often has the reach advantage. Time spent studying boxing has left him a sucker for the leg kick, as proven by Raush Manfio. Stephens will no doubt take advantage of this ongoing issue. Yair Rodriguez’s jab flustered Stephens, but I’m not convinced Clay will be able to recreate it in a meaningful way. 
Take the favorite position on Jeremy Stephens, who I believe will have a fine comeback career for PFL. 

Jacob Clark / Author

Jacob Clark had a 15 year career as a professional MMA fighter, coach, and Greg Jackson’s alum. Now, TikTok’s 12th most important BJJ influencer is bringing his sports and betting knowledge to you here at TheSportsGeek. He spends his time cooking vietnamese food and playing D&D with his family. You can meet him at jiu-jitsu open mats all over Indiana.

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