We almost had a clean sweep last week on our Dana White’s Contender Series predictions but a one gruesome arm break later in the main event and our underdog play was lost.
- We took Adrian Yanez and TJ Laramie on a parlay that paid at (-136). That’s not the greatest value on a parlay ever but these two fighters won quite convincingly so I wasn’t mad.
- We took a stab at Joe Pyfer as a 2 to 1 dog in the main event against a very technical opponent.
Joe was winning until Stoltzfus attempted to slam him on his head in a wrestling reversal as they stood up. Pyfer managed not to land on his head. He chose to brace with his hand instead and his elbow popped right out.
I was disappointed but not mad at this result. If you have an underdog who is (+200) or more, then you have to be content with an almost because, over time, enough of those fights will be wins. And we all know that we don’t need as many dog wins as we do with the favs.
This week, we have two brothers fighting!
No, unfortunately, they aren’t fighting each other. That would be pretty rad. Easy folks, it’s not to the death and you can be darn well sure that these two go HAM in sparring. Most brothers I know that train can really go at one another sometimes.
Louis and Orion Cosce are fighting out of Arcata, California up there with the Redwoods in old Humboldt County. Crazy place that is. Just watch the Netflix documentary.
I love the name of their school. The Lost Boys Jiu-Jitsu and Muay Thai… It looks like it is an up and coming gym as the Cosce brothers are the only pros fighting out of that camp.
Maybe these two brothers are good but they have NOT been fighting good competition at all.
Daniel The Animal McWilliams is now 18-46 and has been finished in his last 7 fights. My goodness, man. He started his career 2-7. Then, he was 12-30… Much respect for Daniel to keep going out there.
I digress, sorry. I’ve just never seen a pro record like that before.
The rest of the card is line pretty closely by Contender Series standards with Orion’s opponent, Matt Dixon, who is the biggest favorite on the night at (-270).
BetOnline.AG has the betting odds for us this week. Let’s make our UFC betting predictions for Season 4 Week 3 of Dana White’s Contender Series.
Kevin Syler (-175) vs Kenny Cross (+155)
This fight was supposed to happen a couple of weeks ago in week one of the Contender Series.
Syler got the VID and was pulled. It was a late cancellation, though, and Kenny Cross, who is a large lightweight, still made weight for the fight.
Syler has fought on the Contender Series before and he won but missed weight at 145. So, the UFC sends him off to the regional scene where he won a fight at ‘55 and now he is back.
He will be undersized against Cross who is an absolute powerhouse but I think Kevin has the better wrestling and BJJ.
Just one year ago, Cross was fighting guys who were 2-5 and 1-4 at the time while Kevin Syler was fighting guys with better records but it was in his home country of Bolivia where I don’t think the level is quite as high as it is here in the States. At least not yet.
Syler is undefeated and he has shown he can win a higher level fight when he defeated a 5-0 Lance Lawrence on the Contender Series.
Kevin gets it done and remains undefeated.
Josh Parisian (-150) vs Chad Johnson (+120)
There is a massive size differential in this one!
Josh is a big boy standing 6’4” with an 80-inch reach and he weighed in at the Heavyweight limit of 265 pounds so it’s likely that he cut some weight for this fight.
Chad, conversely, weighed in at 215 pounds. That’s easy work to make light heavy at 205 and some Lightweights cut 30+ pounds so I know there are Middleweights who do the same.
Johnson is a house, though, all muscle which should help.
Josh is going to have probably something like a 65+ pound weight advantage. I think he will catch the “wild on his feet” Johnson with a good shot and put him away.
The weight difference is too much for me to ignore here.
Orion Cosce: +230
I did a little bit more digging on the Cosce brothers and they do cross-train down “The 5” interstate in Sacramento. The two were also on the national wrestling team.
I know Matt Dixon is a very good fighter but you’re giving me an undefeated guy who is a much better wrestler on paper than his opponent for (+230)? I will take it all day long.
Dixon is definitely more polished and has faced much much superior competition but I just see Cosco getting some takedowns.
If he can keep top control, that’s great, but if not, I still think he can win on the scorecards should it make it that far.
There you go, guys.
Just some quick picks and action for Tuesday night’s action.
It really does make it more exciting when you have some cash on the fight.
The main event features the other Cosce brother, Louis, taking on Victor Reyna who has fought several UFC fighters already in his career. He has the resume but the UFC guys he beat like Daniel Rodriguez and Miguel Baeza aren’t high-level wrestlers.
Taking a punch or slipping them are completely different skills than defending a takedown and/or getting up from the bottom. I’m just going to sit back and enjoy that fight.
The girls are going in the co-main and I like the favorite but her odds aren’t really playable.
I love the value here on the undefeated Orion and I think another undefeated guy, Kevin Syler, gets it done as well.
Enjoy the show, y’all!