Welcome back, guys!
We are going to hopefully continue our winning ways on Dana White’s Contender Series this week. Last week, we sniped it!
In hindsight, we could have probably made it a three-leg parlay instead of 2 but with a payout of (+145), I had to be content.
Anthony Romero looked incredible and didn’t show a lot of weakness in his mixed martial arts game.
He cruised to a win while Collin Huckbody burst out of the gate with a takedown and quick arm triangle submission in the first couple of minutes after the opening bell.
This week, we have 2 fights with big favorites around (-280) and 3 scraps that are lined mostly as pick’ems.
I like the favorites a lot. They are definitely on the “A” side for the Contender Series.
BetOnline has the best UFC betting odds just about every single week. Always bet straight from this article and let’s keep making some money!
Here is our UFC betting play for the Contender Series.
Tucker Lutz and Ronnie Lawrence: -112
Both fighters are currently sitting in the (-250) range so we can almost get even money on a parlay here.
Tucker Lutz has his opponent outmatched in likely every single place this fight could go. Chase Gibson is just 9-4 and is taking this on short notice. He fought a fighter who was 0-19 less than two years ago.
I remember capping the recent fight on a Fight Night and one young up-and-comer nicknamed the Beverly Hills Ninja fought two fighters back-to-back with records of 0-21 and 0-10. He looked great, though!
We are trained to look at the records of a fighter’s past opponents. That is a good strategy but we have to remember that just because a fighter’s opponents aren’t very good doesn’t mean he stinks.
When a coach realizes they have a potential future world champion on their hands, they don’t want their fighter getting snakebit or KO’ed early in their career.
They slowly build confidence and after about 10 fights or so, the level of competition slowly rises. This is a thing and it is happening more and more in mixed martial arts.
The Cosce brothers who each won contracts on the Contender Series a couple of weeks ago are both great examples of this. They fought some chumps and it was easy to hold it against them but here’s the long and short of it.
Watch the fight tape and let that govern at least 80% of your handicapping.
Yes, the little things do matter and will we see some prospects with more talent get a wake-up call?
Sure, but there will be more Cosce brothers and Jordan Wrights coming and their questionable records of their opponents at least keep the betting lines more affordable.
Back to our parlay play now.
Lutz is a stout guy with not a lot of weaknesses in his MMA game. His opponent, Chase Gibson, is not really a high level fighter. He has only defeated 2 fighters who had winning records and they were 1-0 and 6-3.
Chase Gibson didn’t provide the perfect opportunity to make the point I just did because he isn’t a blue chip prospect at all.
I have Lutz winning this one rather comfortably.
In the other contest, Ronnie Lawrence is the dog against the Michigan-born Jose Johnson.
Jose is a tall long fighter for the Bantamweight division. How tall and long do you ask? Well, he’s 6’ tall with a 74” reach.
That’s a big frame for 45 and 55 as well. He has good power too and has shown his heart in previous matchups.
Ronnie Lawrence is long too! For his weight class.
I’m a long guy and just about every time I have to go up against a guy with longer reach, I struggle, at least for the first few minutes.
A dominant wrestler with a lot of strength could be Jose’s kryptonite but Ronnie Lawrence is neither.
I think both Lutz and Johnson will both be dominant in their respective spots here.
Pick: Johnson and Lutz
I looked at a lot of the even-ish betting lines on the other fights and it was hard to get a really good read either way.
In a couple of the matchups, it’s skills vs athleticism and I would like both of those attributes on my side for a confident play.
We could take some stabs, sure, but I really like the parlay and you’re better off just betting another unit on it.
Jose Johnson is a physical freak for the 135-pound class. I’m 6’1 and have made 142 for a Muay Thai fight before and that was not pretty. That will never happen again.
When your ribs are sticking out, it’s not the best look to go and try to defend knees in the clinch.
Looking at Johnson, though, he is built fairly well to be as long as he is. I think he keeps Lawrence at the end of his punches.
Lutz is a beast so don’t blink during his fight with the lower level Chase Gibson.
Get your bets in now and enjoy the scraps!