You mean to tell me that we can bet on multiple events in just one parlay card? Yup.
This is such a good opportunity for us to get excellent value on some parlays. We do pretty well on parlays and always have but I don’t like to lose, guys. 61 parlay plays over the past 19 months and betting one unit per bet, we have a 29% return on your investment with parlay plays.
This is a great number, of course, especially when people say that parlays are betting traps and should be avoided altogether. For as many stupid stupid stupid inclusions I have made in parlays, sitting near 30% feels pretty darn good.
This told us that we probably shouldn’t go big with our bets at UFC 262 and parlays should be reserved for fun. We didn’t do one because we aren’t here for fun. This is about making money.
To play Monday morning QB, though, really quick, if we were to have done a parlay, I will tell you which one I would have done before knowing the results and after. I probably would have picked Beneil Dariush and Mike Grundy.
By split decision 🗣 @GroovyLando locks in the win in his featherweight debut.
— UFC (@ufc) May 16, 2021
Half of that was perfect, of course, but the Mike Grundy pick…I am infamous for either anchoring or having my second leg of a longer parlay, a very unproven guy. About a month ago, Ignacio Bahamondes caught my eye.
As far as what parlay would have been best from the weekend having consulted with Hindsight Harold, I would say Benny Dariush again and I would say Tucker Lutz because he had such a dominant performance but he is very inexperienced.
I know Shane Burgos is a higher level fighter than Kevin Aguilar but Edson always would have increased our hypothetical payout from (+285) to (+373).
Now, this week is another difficult week but for different reasons than last. We had a lot of close matchups but they were mostly mid to high level fights and this week just seems to be a lot of unreliable fighters matched with inconsistent ones.
Can we get back to the inverses sometime soon, please. We were on it last week. It may have seemed like we escaped but our wins were convincing and clean but our losses were not.
Well, it’s not working. We are going to have to do a parlay today that spans several events and we may not even include any fighters from this week’s event.
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Petr Yan + Leon Edwards: -144
Okay, guys. We know what happened in the first fight between Petr Yan and Aljamain Sterling. My guy was looking good for a while but eventually, the pace and pressure along with the technique was too much for him…and then yeah…
The fight wasn’t over yet but Aljo was on his way to a loss and the reason I am going with Yan here as my anchor to a multi-event parlay is because Aljo knows it. You can hear it when he talks and I don’t like this new heel turn he took.
Maybe his manager said that was a good idea. Maybe a friend…I don’t know but that isn’t him. He is a super respectful and nice guy. As a fan, I don’t want to see Aljo go down that road but as a bettor on his opponent, he can act out of character all he wants.
Yan is in his head and I think he stays there for a while after these two rematch.
Our second leg is Leon Edwards of the UK. This guy is absolutely massive for the weight class and has worked his way not to the top but towards the top. In my opinion, Leon still remains unproven.
Fortunately for him, though, Nate Diaz has a very very hard time at 170 pounds. The last UFC Welterweight as in natural welterweight who never fought at 145 pounds was…wait for it…
Nate Diaz is outsized and gets completely overwhelmed by the strength of those guys, especially the long and lean ones who can match his leverage and win on strength. The leverage guys can hold up for a while but eventually they need strength and Nate has never had it.
The line is too wide to bet at (-450) but good enough for our far out free money parlay today.
Add Dusko Todorovic for a (+150)
Dusko, you failed us against Punahale Soriano but that guy is a problem! Congrats to those who were on Puna in that fight. I won with Dusko in his first UFC fight and had a little man/bettor crush on him after that.
I thought he would be technical enough to get the decision but too much reliance on his head movement against a power puncher like Puna was a bad idea. That’s what happens when you’re undefeated.
I expect an improved Dusko here against Maki Pitolo, Puna’s Hawaiian statesman and teammate on the 9th Isle of Las Vegas, Nevada at Xtreme Couture working under the excellent guidance of Eric Nicksick and Nate Petitt.
Todorovic is still a hot prospect. He just ran into a problem in his last fight. Maki, while underrated but still finds a way to lose, is not his teammate Puna.
Add Movsar Evloev for a (+242) Payout
Our fourth leg, Movsar Evloev, is an undefeated fighter working his way up through the UFC’s overgrown mountainous jungle landscape they call the Lightweight Division. He most recently defeated Mike Grundy but the Brit who is a terrific wrestler, was able to get him down on 6 of 15 tries.
— UFC (@ufc) May 16, 2021
Movsar still won the fight comfortably other than being caught in a D’arce choke from Mike but I wouldn’t worry too much about the submission skills of the Taekwondo-based Hakeem Dawodu. Dawodu is underrated. I will admit that but stylistically, it is going to be hard for him to get off against Evloev.
The seamless mix of striking and grappling from this guy tells me he has had some high level training since he was a kid.
I left the undefeated fighter until the end because he will have a difficult opponent in Hakeem Dawodu who only has one loss himself.
Petr Yan is a bad man and he might have lost some of the fight early on against Aljamain but it was for a lack of trying.
When you do that and then take it away, it is a longer fall to the bottom and a better chance you can break them. Knocking them down is cool but Yan is a master of setting them up as well. He can worry you, though, dropping the first round or two before he makes his move.
That was what that fight was before it was stopped due to the illegal knees. I think they pick up right where they left off.
As for Edwards and Nate Diaz, the latter is now 36 years old and has fought in plenty of wars. He was a winner of a lot of those back and forth fights because of his conditioning and heart but I don’t think it will matter against Leon Edwards who will be too physical for him.
Dusko is a guy who I think will bounce back strong and the UFC likes him because Maki Pitolo is definitely a step down from his previous challenge inside the Octagon.