Holm vs Vieira UFC Main Event Pick

Former champion Holly Holm faces #5 Ketlen Vieira at the UFC Fight Night 209 main event. Holm vs Vieira airs May 21st, 2022 at 10:00 PM ET. Our top betting pick is based on odds from Bovada, one of our top UFC betting sites

Top Betting Pick for Holm vs Vieira

Vieira is on a tear, but Holm has proven she’s evolving into a pure mixed martial artist. Her newfound takedown game clears up any holes that Ketlen would have exploited a few years ago. Expect Holms first showing since October 2020 to be one of her best to date. 

Vieira’s Shortcomings

While this up and coming fighter is good, she’s not shown the kind of stopping power that keeps people in the top five. She’s lost two of her last four fights to #3 and #6. The only top ten fighter she has defeated is #8 Sara McMann, five years ago when McMann’s BJJ defense was still developing. I don’t see a clear path to victory for Vieira. 

Tale of the Tape for Holm vs Vieira 

Fighter Holly Holm ‘The Preachers Daughter’  Ketlen ‘Fenomeno’ Vieira 
Age 41 30
Height 5’8’’ 5’8’’
Reach/Stance 69’’ Southpaw 68’’ Orthodox 
Record 14-5 12-2
Submissions/TKO in UFC 0/2 1/0
Fighter Training Camp Jackson-Wink MMA Academy  Nova Uniao Manaus. 

Ketlen is the much younger fighter by eleven years. Holly has a fantastic combat sports pedigree, including her 33-2-3 pro boxing record and 14-1-7 pro kickboxing record. Ketlen has higher ranks in BJJ and Judo. Holm has developed her grappling game extensively since her 2015 loss to Tate. The Holm vs Vieira odds support a decent chance of submission for Vieira, but a likely Holm win by decision or TKO.  

Comparing Fighter Training Camps

Jackson-WInk is a world class MMA academy producing Jon Jones, Evans, GSP, and dozens of champions. Nova Uniao Manaus has a number of local champions, ACA fighters and Shooto fighters. None of them other than Ketlen have found their way to the highest ranks. Holm’s camp should tilt your betting pick in her favor, and when it comes to high level strategy, the Jackson-Wink camp is leagues above Nova Uniao. 

Key UFC Stats for Ketlen vs Holm Betting Pick 

Stats  Holly Holm Ketlen Vieira 
Average Strikes Absorbed per Minute 2.8 4.07
Takedown Accuracy/Defense 30/76% 46/90%
Significant Strikes landed in last two fights  184 120

Against Yana Kunitskays, Vieira was unable to impose her takedowns, causing her to lose in the clench and at a distance. Yana landed 215 total strikes, and offered Holm a strategy of chipping away at Ketlen, landing a high rate of leg and body strikes. 
Holm’s takedown defense has improved, offering only 1 takedown up since 2017 across seven fights. Vieira’s low striking defense leaves her scrambling for double legs against Holm, a fighter that’s improving at getting up from the ground and fence, offering Pennington only 1 minute of control time in their 2020 bout. Be wary of any over props, I think Holm can get the knockout at any time. 

UFC Fight Night Holm vs Viera Money LIne

Betting Picks on Bovada  Odds 
Holly Holm  -200
Ketlen Vieira Money Line +166

Holm is the favorite, as the former champion, she’s never left the UFCs top ten and is on track for another title shot with this win. Our Holm betting pick pays out $50 per $100 wagered. 

Betting Odds History for Holm

Holm has been a -125, -145 and -152 in her last three wins. She was a +310, +265 and +105 in her last three losses. Shevchenko upset Holm in 2016, with Holm as a -180, long before people understood that Shevchenko was in line to be the reigning champion at 125. 
She’s 5-5 over her last ten UFC appearances. 

Betting Odds History for Vieira

Vieira is 2-2 in her last four bouts, upsetting Tate at +102, losing to Yana and Irene at -275 and -240, and defeating Eubanks at -210. The oddsmakers and betting lines have been wrong only once in either fighter’s last eight UFC fights. 

UFC Fight Night Holm vs Vieira Prop Betting Picks 

The over under isn’t useful for us here. The threat of submission from Vieira and knockout from Holm feels high. Vieira’s fight history shows six decisions in eight fights, but Holm is every bit the level of striker as Aldana, who like Holm has only 2 UFC knockouts. 
Betting the Holm TKO or the Vieira submission prop bets are decent choices for the UFC Fight Night odds, depending on who you’re a fan of. 

MMA Breakdown for Holly Holm vs Ketlen Vieira

This is a striker versus grapper match up at its heart, though Holm has evolved into the more complete MMA fighter. Expect a recreation of the Yana win, with Holm unafraid to take top position against the BJJ black belt Vieira. 

Holly Holm Distance Management

The Preacher’s Daughter is unafraid to manage distance for as long as it takes. She plays the outside, drawing fighters into unseen missteps. Expect Holm to be all the way in or all the way out, meaning outside the pocket or deep in the clinch range, forcing Vieira to the cage. 
Dangerous kicks from Holm are a staple of her striking. 

Holly Holm Takedowns

Her new found focus on takedowns and a willingness to show her power in the clinch. Before, Holm was dedicated to distance ranges, but her confidence in grappling and submission defense is going to make her striking more dangerous. Ketlen will absorb more strikes if Holly isn’t afraid of her submission work.

This full fight shows the advancement Holm has made in six short fights.

Vieira’s Head Movement

As a fighter that tends to have her hands down, Ketlen is open to hooks and head kicks at all times. She uses her grappling to avoid strikes, sitting on the outside then driving into the clinch or takedowns. Vieira also plods, stepping with each strike while boxing. Her striking, just eighteen months ago, was still not at a level that’s competitive with Holm. 

Ketlen vs Tate

Tate beat Holm, and Ketlen beat Tate. Why isn’t this an obvious win for Vieira. Tate’s weakness is her striking. She took Holm down and got the sub in an era when Holm’s groundwork was still reaching world class levels. I expect Vieira to have her moments in the clinch, but Holm will quickly put Vieira on the grappling offense, forcing takedown attempts. Bet the Holm money line for a fighter who’s ready for another title shot. 

Jacob Clark / Author

Jacob Clark had a 15 year career as a professional MMA fighter, coach, and Greg Jackson’s alum. Now, TikTok’s 12th most important BJJ influencer is bringing his sports and betting knowledge to you here at TheSportsGeek. He spends his time cooking vietnamese food and playing D&D with his family. You can meet him at jiu-jitsu open mats all over Indiana.

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