Lemos vs Andrade UFC Betting Pick

UFC Lemos Vs Andrade Saturday

We’re ready to make our final pick for Lemos vs Andrade. We’re taking a close look at the stats and odds, as well as the styles of both fighters. We’re also offering a couple last minute prop betting options from Bovada, a top MMA betting site. Betting for Lemos vs Andrade, the main event for UFC Fight Night 205, closes at 11:45 PM ET on April, 23rd 2022. 

Top MMA Pick for Lemos vs Andrade 

‘Fight Doesn’t go to Decision’ is a prop that pays out at -220. It matches the Andrade money line while aligning with the majority of UFC bouts for both fighters. We’re expecting a KO regardless of who comes out on top. Lemos is too dangerous to bet against, and Andrade has all the tools to do what Leslie Smith did to Lemos in 2017. 

Tale of the Tape for Lemos vs Andrade 

Fighter Amanda Lemos Jessica ‘Bate Estaca’ Andrade 
Age 34 30
Height 5’4’’ 5’1’’
Reach/Stance 65’’ Southpaw 62’’ Orthodox 
Record 11-1-1 22-9
Submissions/TKO in UFC 1/2 2/5
Fighter Training Camp Marajo Brothers Team  Parana Vale Tudo 
Sub/TKO UFC losses  0/1 2/3

Lemos has been finished in her only loss and Andrade has been knocked out three times, twice within the last five fights and three years of competition. I think Andrade is getting easier to finish, and she ends up rocked at least once in the majority of performances over the last seven. Lemos is on the rise, but Andrade has more knockouts at the UFC level than any opponent to date, including Leslie, who finished her in 2017.  
Betting on Andrade discounts Lemos’ power, and betting on Lemos discounts Andrade’s strength from top position. 

UFC Fight Night 205 Betting Odds for Lemos vs Andrade 

The following odds are courtesy of Bovada:
Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds  
Lemos Money Line +175
Andrade Money Line -220
Over 2 ½ Rounds -150
Under 2 ½ Rounds  +115
Over 3 ½ Rounds  Even
Under 3 ½ Rounds  -130
Andrade by Points  +250
Andrade by TKO +225
Lemos by TKO  +400
Lemos by Points  +475
Andrade Inside the Distance  +140
Lemos Inside the Distance  +225
Fight Completes 2 Full Rounds -175
Fight Doesn’t Go the Distance  -220
Andrade by TKO or Submission +130
Lemos by TKO or Decision  +175

The Andrade Money line has moved -20 points since Monday. She’s an even stronger favorite, reducing the payout to $45 per $100 wagerd. For a full betting odds history, check out our full card coverage

Andrade by TKO or Sub pays out at +130.
I believe a submission is possible for Andrade. Her grappling is stronger than any of the Lemos fighters to date, and her two submission victories were both via guillotine. Lemos is known for doubles and singles on the fence, so this isn’t impossible.

Lemos by TKO or Decision is a prop bet for fans of Lemos, who is highly unlikely to get a submission win. However, it currently matches her money line but may move as the fight approaches. 

MMA Betting Analysis for Lemos vs Andrade

The stalking style of Lemos puts her in danger of Andrade counter takedown work. Lemos will walk forward and swing at all costs, including offering up counters. Andrade’s slams can be devastating and I expect fireworks from both fighters. 
Check out Lemos’ counter work, which is fantastic if she can get fighters to engage with her. 

Both fighters are willing to move forward to be the aggressor. If Lemos is overly aggressive, she’ll end up on her back. If Andrade moves forward, she risks check hooks and counter knees. It’s a tough puzzle for both fighters. 

Bet ‘Fight Goes the Distance, No” at -220 for the UFC Fight Night 205 main event, Lemos vs Andrade.

Jacob Clark / Author

Jacob Clark had a 15 year career as a professional MMA fighter, coach, and Greg Jackson’s alum. Now, TikTok’s 12th most important BJJ influencer is bringing his sports and betting knowledge to you here at TheSportsGeek. He spends his time cooking vietnamese food and playing D&D with his family. You can meet him at jiu-jitsu open mats all over Indiana.

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