MVP vs Storley Odds and Betting Pick

Page vs Storley is the main event for Bellator 281, this Friday, May 13th, 2022. Place your bets on this fight by 5:40 PM ET to get in on the action. After a close look at the stats and fight tape, we’re going with the underdog on this Bellator 281 main event pick. 

Top Betting Pick for Bellator 281: MVP vs Storyley 

Michael Page is the underdog despite his dismantling of the division. He is a massive welterweight at 6’3’’, and his grappling acumen, ability to fight at range and scramble, and his fight finishing striking should make a tough night for Storley. Storley’s decision with Asamov revealed holes in his game, unable to cause damage without first establishing significant control, and gassing in the later rounds. 

Tale of the Tape for MVP vs Storley at Bellator 281

Fighter Michael Venom Page  Logan ‘Storm’ Storley 
Age 35 29
Height 6’3’’ 5’9’’
Reach 79’’ 71’’
Record 20-1 13-1
Submissions/TKO  4/11 0/8
Fighter Training Camp London Shootfighters  Sanford MMA 

Logan is six years younger, but Michael has the other advantages. The average champion age in high level mme is 29-36, putting both of them in range for a fighters peak. Page’s eight inch reach advantage is tough to ignore. I see Storley having a painful time making it to the inside, especially considering how Page manages distance with footwork. 

Comparing the Fighters Training Camps

Storley is at a top camp, Sanford MMA alongside Robbie Lawler and Michael Chandler, both coming off impressive wins. Many of the best welterweights and lightweights in the world are right there at Sanford. 
London Shootfighters is home to several up and coming fighters, including Bellator and ABA athletes. However, none of these fighters are at the UFC level. Storley has a training advantage- though when too much talent pools in one gym many fighters are left unattended to. 

MVP’s Boxing Career

Page has also spent time as a professional boxer, an area where Storm is particularly lacking. He is currently 2-0 with two knockouts, fighting on local british cards. Storley has trouble with anyones jab, but MVP’s eight inch reach is going to look ridiculous out there. 

Comparing Fighter Finishing Rate

Storley has finished 61% of his fights, compared to 71% for Page. Page’s early career featured more submission work, though as he rises through the ranks they’ve become less common. I do see Page’s jiu-jitsu as a threat to Storley, more so than anyone that Storley has faced to date, and if he overlooks it, he’ll get caught. 

Money Line Betting Odds for Storley vs MVP

If you’re looking for a detailed odds history, check out our full betting preview! All odds are from Bovada, one of our top MMA betting sites

Fighter Money Line  Odds 
Michael Page +180
Logan Storley -240

Page has dropped from +210 to +180 in just seventeen hours. Hustle and place this bet because they’re likely to get closer even as time goes on. 
Both fighters are nearly undefeated, but the tried and tested Michael Page may never see odds like this again. He’s proven he can establish and execute a game plan against high level fighters, upsetting Douglas Lima in his last bout, he’ll do it again over Storley. 

Over Under Betting Odds for Storley vs MVP

Round Over Odds Under Odds
2.5 -230 +160
3.5 -155 +115
4.5 -120 -120

Consider first that Storley has seen three decisions in a row over decent fighters, dropping from 8/10 finishes to 8/13. If you’re a fan of Storely, I recommend the Over 3.5 rounds at -155 for better odds and a likely outcome if he’s to win. 
MVP is coming off a split decision, which can cause some people to forget his power. He’s finished three of his last five with single strike, Karate style knockouts. When Page has a good night, it ends quickly, which is why I’m staying away from the Over/Under. I think this fight has an equal chance of ending early or going to a decision. 

Other Prop Bets for MVP vs Storley

These are a few of our top prop betting picks from a fight with 14 betting markets on Bovada. Plenty to choose from. 

Betting Pick Odds 
Page By TKO or Submission +350
Storley by Decision or TKO -250
Page in Round 1 +800

These are longshot bets that we’re not going to advise unless you’re feeling like a gamble. Page is looking to finish, and I think that will send a message to Amasov. I think he has a chance of winning in round 1 via knockout, let’s call it 15%. 
Storley by Decision or TKO at -250 offers no odds boost over his money line, however, I think this bet will look more lucrative as MVP’s money line continues to drop, so keep an eye on the Bovada odds to see if it improves. 

MMA Breakdown for MVP vs Storely Betting Pick 

First, Storley needs to be cautious shooting on MVP. Cyborg caught one of the most devastating jump knees of all time in MMA. I suspect MVP will be looking to time this shot. Storley should look for the clinch and cage press, but that’s tough to do with such a reach disadvantage. 

This hands down style is great for covering distance and being elusive, but it’s also effective blocking incoming shots. His hands are low enough to frame his hips during any takedown attempts, and I think we’ll see a light, bouncing style from MVP with low hands to block the double leg. 

Lima caught Page in fight one, fair and square. I don’t see Storley winning like this. To date, no grappler has been able to outwork MVP and put him on his back for long. Expect the height to play a big role in sprawling over Storley to tire him out. 

Here’s a great exchange with Amasov. Logan keeps moving, and is putting lots of energy into putting him on the canvas. Storley is small for welterweight, and moving the bigger man had him exhausted by round 4. Note that he did no damage with the exchange. 

Logan is the best wrestler in the Bellator welterweight division, but he’s not the top fighter. MVP is more dangerous and better suited for the weight class. Storley will cut to 155 after this loss and run the show. 

Jacob Clark / Author

Jacob Clark had a 15 year career as a professional MMA fighter, coach, and Greg Jackson’s alum. Now, TikTok’s 12th most important BJJ influencer is bringing his sports and betting knowledge to you here at TheSportsGeek. He spends his time cooking vietnamese food and playing D&D with his family. You can meet him at jiu-jitsu open mats all over Indiana.

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