Nunes vs Pena Betting Pick, Latest Odds and MMA Analysis

We’re taking a close look at the Pena vs Nunes co-main event from Saturday’s UFC 269 card at UFC APEX in Las Vegas. At this point no one is betting against Amanda Nunes, but we’ll be taking a detailed look at the available prop bets, the stats and fight performances leading up to Saturday’s bout while we develop the most lucrative Nunes vs Pena Betting Pick. 

Story of the Fight

Nunes is now at five title defenses, breaking into the top ten UFC title defenders surpassing Daniel Cormier. She’s fighting Pena, a fighter who defeated Cat Zingano in 2016. Zingano handed Nunes one of her only losses. 
Pena is fired up, saying that Nunes used Covid to postpone their title bout and that the champion is hiding to protect her belts. 
Nunes responded at the UFC press conference saying, “She’s delusional….She never fought a Lioness before.” 
Strong words from the two division champ show her confidence going into UFC 269. 

It was this fight that solidified Nunes as one of the greatest of all time.

Betting Odds and Prop Bets for Nunes vs Pena

First let’s look at some of the more common bets. These are less risky, and require less skill to call. 

Bet Available Odds
Amanda Nunes Money Line -1000
Julianna Pena Money Line +600
Over 1½ Rounds  -140
Under 1½ Rounds  +110
Goes the Distance +325
Doesn’t Go the Distance -450
Nunes -5.5 Points -600
Nunes Wins inside the Distance -350
Pena Wins inside the Distance  +900

You can see that the oddsmakers expect a Nunes win and a fight that ends early. 

Money Line Betting 

Nunes money line pays around ten cents per dollar wagered. Not bad for a champion that has made every challenger look foolish. Pena pays out at six times your money. 
Pena lost to number one contender Germaine De Randamie by third round submission and even the much smaller Valentina Shevchenko. 
Her last upset win was against Cat Zingano in 2016. Cat beat Nunes in 2014, which makes this fight interesting in many ways.
Still, Nunes defeated both Randamie and Shevchenko via decision. It looks as if Pena will go the same way. 

Over/Under and Goes the Distance Betting 

The Over is set to -140 and matches with Pena’s last six bouts. Nunes is a tough call. She has four first round finishes and four five round fights over her last eight, split right down the middle between late fights and quick fights.
Pena’s chin will be tested early, and while many women hit hard, Nunes is another level of women’s KO artist. I’m tentative to bet the over/Under at all, because I’d be betting on how good I think Pena’s chin is. It’s a coin toss. 
Pena’s takedown ability could force a long decision. I think her BJJ game is better than Megan Anderson’s, but it’s interesting that Pena’s been submitted off the shot and Nunes finished her last fight off her back. 

Nunes -5.5 Points Spread

To get the points spread, Nunes must finish the fight or give up no more than five points total on judges scorecards at fight end. This method covers decision victories, pays out on TKOs and Submissions, while still offering a seventeen cent per dollar wagered payout. 
Nune’s decisions have been heavily one sided. The only fighter to score more than five points in the last ten fights is Germaine. This is our top prop bet pick for the evening. 

Inside the Distance Bets

While Nunes inside the distance feels like a great bet with a lucrative payout, consider the takedowns of Pena, averaging roughly three per fifteen minute fight. 
Pena has the ability to get a takedown each round she survives against Nunes, and while this won’t win her the round, you can see how Nunes may not get the opportunity to finish what she wants. 
The last person to take Nunes down is Raquel Pennington. I hope Pena can pull it off, otherwise this will be an awfully one sided fight. 

Method of Victory, Round Betting and Other Prop Bets and Odds for Nunes vs Pena

Now we’re taking a look at a few of the oddball props and long shot calls. 

Bet Available  Odds
Nunes in Round 1 by TKO  +225
Pena in Round 5  +4500
Fight to Start Round 2 Yes -175 No +145
FIght to Start Round 3 Yes +125 No -155
Fight to Start Round 4 Yes +195 No -250
Fight to Start Round 5 Yes +250 No -325

Fight to Start Round Props

The ‘Fight will not Start Round 4’ prop is a slight odds boost over a Nunes point spread win. However, given that Nunes generally finishes early or late, this is rare.
The ‘Fight won’t start round 2 Prop’  is at +145 and if you’re positive in a Nunes first round finish, this may be one of the better betting lines for you. 

Pena in Round 5

I’m feeling confident Pena isn’t going to win, but if she does, it will be late in the fight. Nunes doesn’t have the tendency to fade, but everyone has off nights. Pena is aggressive, and could  catch Nunes sleeping with a late fight finish. We’ve seen Pena turn it up in the last round of the fight versus McMann and Montano. Pena’s best round is often her last. 

UFC 269 Co Main Event Nunes vs Pena Wrap Up

Pena is a talented fighter that will likely be bested by Nunes. There is a growing question as to who in the world can challenge the evolved Nunes. We want to make sure we aren’t just riding the hype train and are analyzing each bout and bet carefully. 
What do you think? Let us know in the box below and we’ll send you some betting picks and articles in the future. 
If you’re looking for more MMA coverage, check out the blog.

Jacob Clark / Author

Jacob Clark had a 15 year career as a professional MMA fighter, coach, and Greg Jackson’s alum. Now, TikTok’s 12th most important BJJ influencer is bringing his sports and betting knowledge to you here at TheSportsGeek. He spends his time cooking vietnamese food and playing D&D with his family. You can meet him at jiu-jitsu open mats all over Indiana.

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