Oktagon 28: Stephan Puetz vs Viktor Pesta Main Event Pick and Analysis

This Saturday, September 25th, 2021 the #1 light heavyweight in Germany is taking on the #1 ranked light heavyweight of Eastern Europe for the Oktagon Championship belt. Stephan Puetz is the current Champion and underdog, while Viktor Pesta is a slight favorite and Interem Champion.

The O2 Universum in the Czech Republic will be packed for this fifteen fight event. We’re going to analyse the main fight and place our best best given the odds and likely outcomes. If you’d like to place your bet and follow allong, this fight is free for the USA. Here’s a link to click at 10AM EST on the 25th to watch the stream.

 Stephan Puetz vs Viktor Pesta Odds and Props

Fighter Moneylines and Payout per Dollar Wagered Over/Under 2 1/2
 Stephan Puetz +120, $1.20 NA
Viktor Pesta -150, $0.67 NA

This fight has no current prop bets. Stephan Puets is a $1.20 underdog.

A great price for a current champion:
Viktor pays out just over half of that at $0.67 per dollar wagered. Viktor was 1-4 in UFC and oddsmakers tend to place anyone who’s been to the big show above all others. His performances weren’t great, and that was 4 years ago.

I’m tempted to bet on the reigning champ in such a close fight, but first let’s see the tale of the tape.

Tale of the Tape for  Stephan Puetz vs Viktor Pesta

   Stephan Puetz Viktor Pesta
Age 34 31
Height 6’5’’ 6’3’’
MMA record 20-4 17-6
SUB/TKO 7/8 6/7
Inactivity 357 180
Loses by 1 TKO 1 SUB 2 Decision 4 TKO 1 SUB 1 Decision

Stephan has the height advantage, has more finishes, fights, and fewer losses.

Viktor has been more active and is younger. Viktor being knocked out four times in 23 fights is concerning. Puetz has a 33% knockout ratio across all fights. I could see the chin of Pesta being tested yet again.

Based on these stats we have to assume that either the oddsmakers have flubbed the money line or Pesta has fought a much stronger group of competitors. Lets take a closer look.

Stephan Puetz vs Viktor Pesta Recent Bouts

Stephan has won his last five straight since 2018. He’s handed Walter Dos Anjos Jr. his first loss in Stephan’s most recent match-up.

Four fights ago, he beat UFC vet Joachim Christensen with a round two-arm triangle.

Four of Stephan’s last five fights have been finishes, two by submission and two by TKO. He handed Idris Amizhaev his second-ever TKO loss, a good finish against a Fight Club Berkut fighter.

Please Note:
Viktor Pesta is 4-1 of his last five after a loss to Aleksandr Emilianenko. Viktor has also finished four of the five bouts, two by each TKO and submission. He defeated 2004 UFC vet Mike Kyle. This is his most prominent win to date.

Viktor fumbled against Michal Martinek, a 9-2 Oktagon and ACA fighter. He had injured his left arm, but was also losing the fight up until that point.

Who’s The Better Fighter – Stephan Puetz or Viktor Pesta?

Stephan has the tendency to get outpointed by more elusive strikers. He likes to push forward and work into clench and control positions. He doesn’t appear to have great wrestling but can attempt body locks and trips if he gets you against the cage.

His grappling control and ground striking is solid.
He was losing the fight with Idris, until he suddenly achieved a winning mount position and delivered finishing strikes.

Viktor was finished by Derrick Lewis in the mounted position. Viktor has better boxing and a decent double leg. He seems to have many of the same issues that plague light heavyweights far and wide, an issue with late fight conditioning and the inability to keep one’s hands up.

Stephan Puetz and Viktor Pesta Current Fight Camps

Puetz fights out of FIght Spirit camp, the most prestigious German MMA school. This is the same school that produced Drake Weichel of Bellator.

Viktor Pesta trains out of Penta Gym in Czech Republic. They haven’t produced any fighters for major organizations outside of Pesta’s work in the UFC.

My Final Pick for Stephan Puetz vs Viktor Pesta:
Stephan Puetz!

Odds are courtesy of BetOnline. Check out our BetOnline review here

I pick Stephan Puetz at +120

I’m tempted by the payout, but I also see Stephen winning as the fight goes on. In a five-round bout, Viktor will need to bring newfound conditioning to finish Puetz. The German is decent BJJ fighter, but mostly I could see him swinging for the fences against an opponent he knows can be knocked out.

PLACE YOUR BETS NOW!

Give us your thought on the fight in the comments, and as always, happy betting!

Jacob Clark / Author

Jacob Clark had a 15 year career as a professional MMA fighter, coach, and Greg Jackson’s alum. Now, TikTok’s 12th most important BJJ influencer is bringing his sports and betting knowledge to you here at TheSportsGeek. He spends his time cooking vietnamese food and playing D&D with his family. You can meet him at jiu-jitsu open mats all over Indiana.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.