UFC 274 Main Event: Oliveira vs Gaethje Betting Pick

We’ve organized the stats and Oliveira vs Gaethje odds to offer our top betting pick.
UFC 274 is a packed 13 fight card, headlined by Charles Oliveira vs Justin Gaethje. Place your bets by May 7th, 2022 at 11:55 PM ET to get in on this title bout with multiple betting markets and “double chance” special prop bets at Bovada, one of our top MMA betting sites.

Top Oliveira vs Gaethje UFC Betting Pick

Our top pick is the Oliveira money at -170, a $58.82 payout per $100 wagered.
Oliveira is the champ for a reason. His dismantling of Poirier showed that he had the staying power to defend Gaethje’s striking but also the finishing mechanics of an expert level fighter. The Chandler knockout was a far more convincing win than Gaethje’s brawl with the contender. Oliveira’s momentum coming into this fight is strong, a ten fight winning streak compared to Gaethje’s 6-3 UFC record.

Tale of the Tape for Oliveira vs Gaethje

Fighter Charles ‘Da Bronx’ Oliveira Justin ‘The Highlight’ Gaethje
Age 32 33
Height 5’10’’ 5’11’’
Reach/Stance 74’’ Orthodox 70’’ Orthodox
Record 32-8, 1 NC 23-3
Submissions/TKO in UFC 15/3 0/5
Fighter Training Camp Chute Boxe Diego Lima Elevation Fight Team, Trevor Wittman

First, Oliveira is the tallest 5’10’’ in the sport. For context, here is Oliveira squaring off with the 5’11’’ Tony Ferguson. It’s a common tactic to undersell your height so that opponent’s train for the wrong size, but people don’t often get away with it at the highest levels. Oliverira is 6’1’’ or 6’0’’ at the shortest. What a sneaky tactician.

Gaethje’s Finishing Odds

Justin has finished five of his nine UFC appearances, a 56% chance of finishing his opponent based on his record. However, many of these finishes were outside of fighters’ primes. Cerrone had seen better days by 2019, Barboza was in the middle of a 1-5 slump, and Gaethje ended Furguson’s massive seven year winning streak and kicked off a three fight losing streak. Oliveira has been finished before, making some fans consider the under and fight ‘no decision’ prop bets.

Comparing Lima and Trevor Whittman

Both Fighters have high profile training camps. Lima has been Oliveira’s coach for 5 or more years, and boasts other top level fighters like Thomas Almeida and other rising Brazilian stars. Charles is head and shoulders above his team mates, but this happens at many high level gyms, such as Eddy Reynoso’s team and its focus on Canelo.

Trevor Whittman’s Training Style

Whittman has a mitt focused centered style and a specified approach to cardio that Gaethje has clearly taken to heart. Gaethje travels between Grudge gym to work specifically with Trevor, and the Elevation team where he’s alongside Drew Doby, Magny, and Cory Sandhagen. This combination is one of the best in MMA and gives Gaethje a competitive edge against most fighters.

UFC 274 Betting Odds for Oliveira vs Gaethje

Bet Available at Bovada Odds 
Oliveira Money Line -170
Gaethje Money Line +140

Oliviera is the betting favorite. He was the underdog against Poirier at +120, and also upset Ferguson at +161. Analysts and bettors are finally seeing that he’s dangerous after ten straight wins and three upsets.
Gaethje was the underdog in his loss to Khabib, but also in his upsets of Vick and Barboza at +125 and +102. He lost as the underdog to Poirier in 2018.

Oliveira vs Gaethje Over/Under Odds and Predictions

Oddsmakers see a finish and a short fight.

Round Bet Over Bet Under Bet
1.5 -185 +140
2.5 +125 -165
3.5 +180 -240
4.5 +275 -400
Fight Goes Distance, Yes/No +325 -500

I think Gaethje will be more metered than usual. Odds show a lean toward Gaethje’s history of first round TKO’s but as he’s gone up in competition, we’ve seen a decision and a fifth round TKO inside his last three bouts, leading me to believe the over 1.5 Rounds prop bet to be a strong favorite. It pays just less than the Oliveira money line while covering for Gaethje upset knockouts.

Oliveira’s Average Fight Length

Over his last five, Oliveira has four fights that fit the 1.5 Over prop bet. At the championship level he still has an 80% finishing ratio. I’m skeptical of using any early fights, as Olivera is essentially a different fighter entirely than he was five years ago.

Oliveira vs Gaethje Double Chance and Top Props

Bet Available at Bovada Odds
Oliveira by Submission +135
Gaethje by TKO +175
Oliveira by Sub or Decision +275
Gaethje by TKO or Decision +150
Fight Completes 1 Full Round -350

Gaethje’s submission loss to Khabib isn’t a strong indicator that Gaethje can be subbed, but it did count. He was also deep in some chokes against Ferguson, and Olivera has proven that he doesn’t need the takedown to get a sub, he can box you into position for the big win.
Gaethje fans should look closely at the TKO or Decision double chance prop. Gaethje gets a +10 odds boost and will not submit Oliveira. It’s not his game and it offers a small jump over the money line.

UFC Fight Prediction and MMA Breakdown for Oliveira vs Gaethje

Charles has a history of getting knocked down in round one. I think he mostly just falls when he gets hit, hoping to use BJJ to avoid punishment. Here he is making a comeback against Chandler, using his reach to deliver a brutal series of strikes against the former Bellator Champ.

Oliveira has evolved since his early UFC TKO losses. Here he is getting pierced up by Cowboy Cerrone. Notice the butt flop. Oliviera doesn’t get knocked out so much as he gets overwhelmed by blows. His composure has risen so much in the past fifteen fights, now with over twenty UFC appearances we see less of this kind of ‘crumpling.’

Gethje looks fresh here in round five. He’s a well conditioned athlete with champion level composure late in the fight. This is one of the reasons I see a long battle with Oliveira, Gaethje prefers them. He’s been open in saying he wants a first round TKO and I think this is a head game. Gaethje is a bad liar and can barely fool me let alone his opponent.

These kinds of exchanges are great against a fighter that doesn’t have reach on you. I’m concerned that when Gaethje comes in with wild hands, Oliveira will show his knees to the body. The challenger needs to maintain his head or suffer the effects of that four inch reach advantage.

Jacob Clark / Author

Jacob Clark had a 15 year career as a professional MMA fighter, coach, and Greg Jackson’s alum. Now, TikTok’s 12th most important BJJ influencer is bringing his sports and betting knowledge to you here at TheSportsGeek. He spends his time cooking vietnamese food and playing D&D with his family. You can meet him at jiu-jitsu open mats all over Indiana.

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