Oliveira vs Poirier Betting Pick, Latest Odds, Fight and Prop Bet Analysis

This pick is a deep dive into prop betting and betting picks for UFC 269’s Oliveira vs Poirier. We’re looking closely at the fight, each fighter’s performances in recent bouts, and all the available options to produce our most accurate betting picks. 
All odds available as of December 9th on Betonline.ag. For more on prop betting, start here. 

Story of the Fight

The title of Lightweight UFC Champion is on the line between the champ, Charles Olliveira and the Interim Champion Dustin Poirier. Both fighters have been amicable, with Poirier joking, “I need some Coly Covington to rub off on this guy” in order to sell pay-per-views. WIth these two holding the #1 and #2 spots in the division, it appears they’re head and shoulders above everyone else at lightweight. 
This Saturday December 11th, 2021 only on pay-per-view at UFC APEX in Las Vegas, the title is on the line. 

Betting Odds and Props for Oliviera vs Poirier at UFC 269

We’ve excluded a couple of longshot calls and narrowed it down to the top ten most likely bets. 

Bet Available  Odds 
Charles Oliveira Money Line +130
Dustin Poirier Money Line  -150
Over 1 ½ Rounds  -185
Under 1 ½ Rounds  +155
Fight Goes the Distance +300
Fight Doesn’t Go the Distance  -400
Poirier by Points +500
Olveira by Points +650
Oliveira by Submission +310
Dustin by TKO or DQ +115

Now let’s look at each grouping of prop bets and moneyline bets to determine our top pick. 

Money Line Bets

With Poirier’s favorite status coming as a surprise to analysts, fans will agree that Poirier is the right kind of knockout artist to defeat Oliviera. Oliveira has won nine straight, putting down every challenger and finishing eighth of his last nine wins. 
Porier has the kind of knockout power that has stifled Oliviera in the past, such as with Max Holloway in 2015. However, the wrestling and submission focus of Oliveira should play a major role. 
Khabib used counter wrestling to defeat Porier with a third round submission. My money line bet remains the Charles Oliveira +130 underdog pick. 

Over/Under Betting for Poirier vs Oliveira

The Over is at 1 ½ Rounds for -185, a $0.54 payout. It’s sur[rising to me that oddsmakers see such a short fight. With Tony Ferguson going the full five rounds with Oliveira, and Khabib going three rounds with Poirier, why is this fight expected to be over so quickly?
The answer is Connor McGreggor and Michael Chandler.  Dustin’s lighting wins over the champion have oddsmakers thinking many people see a quick fight. Chandler is the kind of power puncher that everyone expected to give Oliveira the fight of his life, and he finished at :19 of the second round- that’s inside the Under 1 ½ Rounds prop bet. 
Still, I see a longer fight. These two are careful, thoughtful fighters who are willing to exchange but aren’t finished easily. I see a three to four round bout, so bet the over if you’re betting the round props. 

Fight Does or Doesn’t Go the Distance

Ferguson and Max  Hollloway are the only fighters to go the distance with either fighter over the last five bouts. These two love to finish fights, and with both fighters having been knocked out and submitted multiple times on their way to the title, I predict something that won’t make the full five rounds. There’s no such thing as a guaranteed banger, but this is as close as it comes. 

Fighter By Points Bets

To me, these are the riskiest bets on the ticket. You’ll be wagering that one fighter will win via decision while only gaining around four times your money. It doesn’t align with any of the outcomes we’ve seen from these two fighters over the past six years. Expect a kill or be killed fight. 

Oliviera by Sub or Dustin by TKO

I would have said  that an Oliviera submission is also most likely vs Chandler, but the champ knocked him out early. While I feel that the likelihood of a Dustin knockout or Oliviera sub is high, you have to look at the kinds of fighters Dustin couldn’t knock out. 
Holloway, Hooker, and Miller are the fighters Dustin couldn’t finish- all lanky grapplers. Oliveira is tall and shoots often. 
Meanwhile, the fighters that Oliviera couldn’t finish include Tony Ferguson. The scrappy madman wouldn’t tap to fight and career ending submissions. I wonder if Dustin will be equally dedicated. 

As you look at each fighter’s finishes, look closely at the range. Oliveira is lanky and must control the distance.

Longshot Props for Olviera vs Poirier at UFC 269

Now we cover some of the many method of victory, points spread calls, and other prop bets that can be useful depending on your betting strategy. 

Bet Available Odds
Dustin Poirier in Round 1 +400
Dustin Poirier in Round 2  +550
Dustin Poirier in Round 3 by KO/TKO or DQ +900
Oliveira in Round 1 +500
Oliveira in Round 4  +2200
Oliveira in Round 2 by Submission +2000
Oliveira in Round 1 by Submission +1600
Dustin Poirier -5.5 Points -130
Fight to Start Round 5 Yes +200, No -260
Unanimous Decision Props Poirier +500, Oliveira +850

These higher paying bets require some real insight into the elements of each fight. 

Method of Victory and Round Calls for Poirier

Dustin in round 1,2 or three makes the most sense to me. Oliveira enjoys the double leg to defend advances. I can see a Poirier counter wrestling or guillotine win. Poirier has used the D’arce choke twice in the past against people who like to shoot under his strikes. Expect Poirier to look for it inside the sprawl. 
This is why I’ve selected these two round calls rather than ‘Poirier TKO.’ If Poirier can see the oversprawl position, a D’arce choke is likely against the lanky, narrow framed Oliveira. 

Method of Victory and Round Calls for Oliveira

While Dustin’s wrestling is strong, I see a high chance of Oliveira submission. He should have submitted Ferguson, and has submitted five of his last nine opponents each in the first and second round. This excludes the third round Kevin Lee submission. 
The reason I see the fourth round sub as a high possibility is Poirier’s history of slowing in championship rounds. He faltered in the third vs Khabib, and gave Dan Hooker rounds three and four. He was submitted by Chan Sung Jung in the fourth round in 2012. 
Porier comes out strong, but fades when fighters mix wrestling and striking effectively. 

Dustin Poirier -5.5 Points bet

This means that at the time of winning, either finish or decision, that Poirier isn’t behind by more than five points on the card. It’s a little difficult for new bettors to understand, but think of it like this: a finish is an automatic win, and the fighter can give up no less than 5.5 points across all score cards of the three judges. 
Think of it like a moneyline with a small extra parameter. If you’re betting on Charles, go with the moneyline, but a Poirier points spread bet may sweeten the pot for his fans. 

Fight Doesn’t Start Round Five

I think this is a safe bet regardless of how you see the fight going. Round start bets are a great way to cover your bases regardless of who wins, and this fight looks like an early night. So basically, betting “no” on the Fight Starts round 5 prop will net you $0.38 per dollar wagered. That’s a fantastic payout for two fighters who’ve seen three decisions collectively since 2017. 

UFC 269 Oliveira vs Poirier Wrap Up

Poirier’s attitude almost makes me switch my bet.
Fight fans can’t be more excited for this title unifier, and the only way to make it better is by winning some money! If you’re new to MMA betting, start with our MMA betting Guide. If you’re ready for more MMA and sports betting events, scroll over to the blog. 

Jacob Clark / Author

Jacob Clark had a 15 year career as a professional MMA fighter, coach, and Greg Jackson’s alum. Now, TikTok’s 12th most important BJJ influencer is bringing his sports and betting knowledge to you here at TheSportsGeek. He spends his time cooking vietnamese food and playing D&D with his family. You can meet him at jiu-jitsu open mats all over Indiana.

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