This Saturday, at UFC on ABC 3, the Ortega vs Rodriguez odds show a good return on the #3 featherweights money line. Bovada has 19 betting markets on this UFC main event, and UFC betting sites are offering a high return on some of our most favored props.
Top Ortega vs Rodriguez Betting Pick
Ortega is the better grappler by a long shot. Yair’s striking failed against fighters that Ortega beat, like Frankie Edgar. Expect Rodriguez to struggle with Ortega takedowns and submission work.
Top Pick for Yair Rodriguez Fans
The Under 4.5 Rounds prop bet pays $76.92 per $100 wagered at -130. Both fighters are finishers, and Ortega has been knocked out before. Ortega’s finishing rate in the UFC is 66%, and Yair has seen 3 of his last 5 finishes early.
Tale of the Tape and UFC Stats Ortega vs Rodriguez
|Fighter||Brian ‘T-City’ Ortega||Yair ‘El Panter’ Rodriguez|
|Reach/Stance||69’’ Switch||71’’ Orthodox|
|Record||15-2-0, 1NC||14-3, 1 NC|
|Submissions, TKO in UFC||3, 3||0, 3|
|Sig. Strikes Landed, Absorbed||4.15, 6.69||4.65, 4.09|
|Takedown Accuracy, Defense||24%, 56%||28%, 60%|
|Strikes Absorbed in Last 3||566||406|
|Takedowns in Last 3||7||1|
Yair is the larger framed fighter, but is known to cut significantly more weight. At weigh-ins, T-City was looking larger than usual, and it points to his focus on wrestling and finding top position. Yair’s takedown defense is moderate, but only points to Ortega seeing about one of every three attempts. He made fifteen attempts in his last three fights, and even pulled guard against Volkanovski.
Here are the odds for Brian Ortega vs. Yair Rodriguez:
Brian Ortega -180 (5/9)
Yair Rodriguez +155 (31/20)
— Chamatkar Sandhu (@SandhuMMA) July 15, 2022
UFC Betting Odds for Ortega vs Rodriguez
|Fighter||Ortega odds||Rodriguez odds|
|Points or Decision||+290||+325|
|Inside the Distance||+155||+265|
|In Round 1||+450||+1200|
|In Round 2||+650||+1600|
|In Round 3||+1200||+2000|
|In Round 4||+1800||+2500|
|In Round 5||+2500||+3500|
The odds show Ortega having a better chance of finishing in any given round, and in all methods except TKO. Ortega’s 70% UFC finishing percentage is far better than Yair’s 29% finishing rate. Expect Rodriguez to sprawl and brawl, planning to win rounds by avoiding takedowns.
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Over Under Bets for Ortega vs Rodriguez
|Bet||Over, Yes Odds||Under, No Odds|
|Fight Goes the Distance||+115||-150|
|Fight Completes Round 1||-650||+400|
|Fight Completes Round 2||-250||+185|
|Fight Completes Round 3||-165||+125|
|Fight Completes Round 4||-125||-105|
The UFC on ABC 3 odds show a fight that ends inside three rounds. Of their five round fights, both men have seen one finish, and both were past the third round mark. Ortega has four third round finishes in the UFC and only one first round finish. Yair will be saving his energy for takedown defense, so the -650 bet for 1 Round Completed is very safe.
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MMA Breakdown for Ortega vs Rodriguez
Brian Ortega has a tough style to train for. He’s athletic, sure, but he’s also risky. He takes very high submission risks that other fighters refuse to commit to. Training for submission MMA styles are difficult to emulate, and Yair’s VSS coaches aren’t exactly well versed in striking against flying submissions.
Brian Ortega’s open workouts are purely satisfying to watch pic.twitter.com/cY8uXRO9pR
— Manolo 🥃 🏝 (@manny_mma_) July 15, 2022
Twice in the Volkanovski fight did Ortega nearly win via submission, and both times it was in the middle of Volkanovski’s offense. This will make most fighters unsure of attack. Not only that, Yair’s lanky frame is ripe for chokes when compared to the traps and neck of shorter 145 pound fighters.
Ortega almost took Volk to T-City 😮💨 pic.twitter.com/GRv8RYoFk0
— Heavyweight Thanos (@MMAThanos) July 15, 2022
Rodriguez has some of the more creative striking in all of the UFC. Ortega is going to look to clinch often, and expect Yair to work standing elbows as T-City closes the distance.
Yair Rodriguez fight week💥 pic.twitter.com/WUVD41o5rQ
— ᴛʜᴇᴀʀᴛᴏꜰᴡᴀʀ🗿🏝 (@TheArtOfWar6) July 15, 2022
In the end, we have a classic striker versus grappler match up. With Brian’s improving wrestling, I see him getting the win.
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