Ortega vs Rodriguez Odds and Predictions

This Saturday, at UFC on ABC 3, the Ortega vs Rodriguez odds show a good return on the #3 featherweights money line. Bovada has 19 betting markets on this UFC main event, and UFC betting sites are offering a high return on some of our most favored props. 

Top Ortega vs Rodriguez Betting Pick

Ortega is the better grappler by a long shot. Yair’s striking failed against fighters that Ortega beat, like Frankie Edgar. Expect Rodriguez to struggle with Ortega takedowns and submission work. 

Top Pick for Yair Rodriguez Fans 

The Under 4.5 Rounds prop bet pays $76.92 per $100 wagered at -130. Both fighters are finishers, and Ortega has been knocked out before. Ortega’s finishing rate in the UFC is 66%, and Yair has seen 3 of his last 5 finishes early. 

Tale of the Tape and UFC Stats Ortega vs Rodriguez 

Fighter Brian ‘T-City’ Ortega  Yair ‘El Panter’ Rodriguez 
Age 31 29
Height 5’8’’ 5’11’’
Reach/Stance 69’’ Switch  71’’ Orthodox 
Record 15-2-0, 1NC  14-3, 1 NC
Submissions, TKO in UFC 3, 3 0, 3
Sig. Strikes Landed, Absorbed 4.15, 6.69 4.65, 4.09
Takedown Accuracy, Defense 24%, 56% 28%, 60%
Strikes Absorbed in Last 3 566 406
Takedowns in Last 3 7 1

Yair is the larger framed fighter, but is known to cut significantly more weight. At weigh-ins, T-City was looking larger than usual, and it points to his focus on wrestling and finding top position. Yair’s takedown defense is moderate, but only points to Ortega seeing about one of every three attempts. He made fifteen attempts in his last three fights, and even pulled guard against Volkanovski. 

UFC Betting Odds for Ortega vs Rodriguez 

Fighter  Ortega odds Rodriguez odds
Money Line -175 +145
Points or Decision +290 +325
TKO +625 +325
Submission +195 +2500
Inside the Distance  +155 +265
In Round 1 +450 +1200
In Round 2  +650 +1600
In Round 3  +1200 +2000
In Round 4  +1800 +2500
In Round 5 +2500 +3500

The odds show Ortega having a better chance of finishing in any given round, and in all methods except TKO. Ortega’s 70% UFC finishing percentage is far better than Yair’s 29% finishing rate. Expect Rodriguez to sprawl and brawl, planning to win rounds by avoiding takedowns. 

Over Under Bets for Ortega vs Rodriguez 

Bet Over, Yes Odds Under, No Odds 
1.5 Rounds  -325 +230
2.5 Rounds -175 +135
3.5 Rounds -125 -105
4.5 Rounds Even -130
Fight Goes the Distance  +115 -150
Fight Completes Round 1 -650 +400
Fight Completes Round 2 -250 +185
Fight Completes Round 3 -165 +125
Fight Completes Round 4 -125 -105

The UFC on ABC 3 odds show a fight that ends inside three rounds. Of their five round fights, both men have seen one finish, and both were past the third round mark. Ortega has four third round finishes in the UFC and only one first round finish. Yair will be saving his energy for takedown defense, so the -650 bet for 1 Round Completed is very safe.

MMA Breakdown for Ortega vs Rodriguez 

Brian Ortega has a tough style to train for. He’s athletic, sure, but he’s also risky. He takes very high submission risks that other fighters refuse to commit to. Training for submission MMA styles are difficult to emulate, and Yair’s VSS coaches aren’t exactly well versed in striking against flying submissions. 

Twice in the Volkanovski fight did Ortega nearly win via submission, and both times it was in the middle of Volkanovski’s offense. This will make most fighters unsure of attack. Not only that, Yair’s lanky frame is ripe for chokes when compared to the traps and neck of shorter 145 pound fighters. 

Rodriguez has some of the more creative striking in all of the UFC. Ortega is going to look to clinch often, and expect Yair to work standing elbows as T-City closes the distance. 

In the end, we have a classic striker versus grappler match up. With Brian’s improving wrestling, I see him getting the win. 

Jacob Clark / Author

Jacob Clark had a 15 year career as a professional MMA fighter, coach, and Greg Jackson’s alum. Now, TikTok’s 12th most important BJJ influencer is bringing his sports and betting knowledge to you here at TheSportsGeek. He spends his time cooking vietnamese food and playing D&D with his family. You can meet him at jiu-jitsu open mats all over Indiana.

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