PFL Challenger Series 5 Main Event Pick

PFL Challenger Series #5 is here, featuring eight lightweight fighters. We’re focusing on the most promising fighter of the tournament, the main event, Bruno Miranda vs Carson Frei. We’ve gathered the odds and crunched the stats to develop our best betting pick. 

PFL Challenger Series #5 Top Betting Pick

Miranda wants the knockout and Frei wants the submission. Miranda has been in one decision since 2011 and Frei will only move slowly against fighters who will let him hold them down. Miranda is active and five of his last seven finishes were in the very first round. 
Miranda is also prone to upset knockout losses and submissions, which plays into the hand of Frei’s heavy ground striking and choke centered submission game. 

PFL Challenger Series Tale of the Tape for Miranda vs Frei 

Fighter Bruno ‘Robusto’ Miranda Carson Frei
Age 31 NA
Height 5’9’’ 5’8’’
Record 13-3 9-4
Submissions/TKO  1/6 2/1
Fighter Training Camp Tiger Muay Thai Rose City FC, Gracie Barra Portland 
Last Five Fights 4-1 3-2

Miranda is the older, more experienced fighter. His finishing percentage among wins is nearly 25% greater than Frei’s. Over their last five bouts, Frei was finished by 5-2 Matt Jones. Jones is good, but Miranda is a better striker from a technical perspective. It will make it tough to bet on any Over or goes the distance props, Frei is just a bit too fragile. 
Bruno is also a glass cannon. He’s finished in all three of his losses, twice via submission. 

PFL Challenger Series 5 Betting Odds

Bet Available at Odds  
Carson Frei Money Line +160
Bruno Miranda Money Line -185
Over 1 ½ Rounds -150
Under 1 ½ Rounds  +120
Miranda by Points +275
Miranda by TKO +145
Frei by Points  +375
Frei by Submission +550
Fight Goes to Decision  +145
Fight Doesn’t Go the Distance  -175
Miranda Win Inside Distance – Goes Distance = No Action -240
FreiWin Inside Distance – Goes Distance = No Action +190

Neither fighter has displayed betting odds in past bouts. Frei is the underdog, likely to succumb to a Miranda knockout win. Miranda by points should be a rare bet, given he’s only been to decision once since 2011.
Steer clear of the points and distance betting picks for the PFL Challenger Series 5 main event, and don’t waste our time on the distance = no action bets either. It’s a classic striker versus grappler match up, and unless Miranda has reinvented his grappling at Tiger Muay Thai, he’s just as open to the finish as Frei. 

PFL Prop Betting Predictions

The under doesn’t cover either of the Frei losses from 2017. Both times he finished it was during the third round. We would bet on over 1 ½ Rounds, but then we’d miss out on any flash knockouts from Bruno, or even an early flying triangle win from Frei. These fighters are so finish focused that the Over isn’t as safe a bet as the Under, but the no decision prop is a stronger favorite than any other bet than the Bruno Money line. 
If you’re convinced there could be a decision, consider the Miranda Moneyline at -180. Oddsmakers have ‘Miranda Win Inside Distance – Goes Distance = No Action’ at -240, a stronger favorite than the moneyline. This is a mistake in the odds and proves that the money line is currently undervalued. The lines will move closer to the fight. 

PFL Challenger Series 5 Fight Prediction and MMA Breakdown 

Miranda’s last four wins include 22-7 Ricardo Tirioni for a third round finish. Tirioni is similar to Frie. He’s a submission finisher who has the occasional knockout victory. Miranda’s third round TKO shows improvement over time against submission oriented fighters. His win over Ki Won Bin four fights ago showed that Miranda can handle young athleticism. Bin went on to go 7-2 after the loss to Miranda. Frei will need to bring more than youth and submission skills to survive the fight. 

Frei has shown improved wrestling, especially in his last fight. He took time off from 2019 to 2021, and in that time became a very aggressive striker/wrestler. It seems unfair to compare his past fights to his new level of performance, one that can finish Miranda on his first mistake come Friday Night. 
Either fighter could end the bout, and given Frei’s recent evolution, he’s still in this fight. 

PFL Challenge Series 5 Main Event Wrap Up

If you’re new to MMA, start with our guide. To parlay this fight with other MMA bouts through the weekend, check out the UFC Betting Preview

Jacob Clark / Author

Jacob Clark had a 15 year career as a professional MMA fighter, coach, and Greg Jackson’s alum. Now, TikTok’s 12th most important BJJ influencer is bringing his sports and betting knowledge to you here at TheSportsGeek. He spends his time cooking vietnamese food and playing D&D with his family. You can meet him at jiu-jitsu open mats all over Indiana.

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