Polaris 17 and SUG 27 Professional Grappling Event Betting Picks and Analysis

Two of the biggest pro grappling events are taking place this weekend and we’ll see some of the sport’s biggest stars as Craig Jones faces Davi Ramos and Mason Fowler takes on Gabriel Checco. There are twelve other matches this weekend featuring betting odds, but we’ll focus on the main events and Aaron Tiegs vs Micah Brakefield. 

Polaris 17 Main Event: Craig Jones vs Davi Ramos

Two ADCC competitors face off in this middleweight matchup. Davi is going up in weight to face the equally experienced Craig Jones. Davi hasn’t been as active since his 2015 ADCC division win, while Craig has become a mainstay in BJJ competitions in that six year time frame. 

Davi has been medaling in large competitions since 2006, placing in the IBJJF brown belt division.  Craig has only been training BJJ since 2010, though he was immediately competitive on the world stage.

Betting Odds for Jones vs Ramos

Fighter  Wins By Submission  Wins By Points
Craig Jones -160 +175
Davi Ramos +700 +600

Remember that in BJJ betting, you’re often betting on the outcome and the fighter, so you’ll either bet on both and lose the difference, or bet on a specific athlete’s win condition. 

Jones is coming in as a serious favorite. In my eyes, he would be an even greater favorite if not for coming off injury and diverting energy to developing a new gym. I’m currently leaning toward Jones via submission, though the Davi Ramos by points win for six times your wager is enticing. 

Jones vs Ramos Recent Bouts

Ramos is on a four fight losing streak across professional grappling organizations. He’s lost twice this year, once to Dante Leon and Pedro Marinho.

Leon is an interesting loss, because at the 2019 ADCC open class, Jones defeated Leon with ease giving up no points, advantages or positions of any kind. The loss to Marinho made many think that Davi has aged out of this level of competition. 

Jones has won all three matches this year and is on a six fight winning streak. He submitted five of those six opponent’s with heel hooks and RNC finishes. It’s clear he’s one of the men to beat. His 2020 losses to Mason Fowler were driven by wrestling acumen and exceptional strength, neither attribute could be assigned to Davi Ramos. 

Davi Ramos MMA Career

Davi is currently 10-4 in MMA on a two fight skid in the UFC. While I think that staying in elite shape is a great idea for Ramos, it’s clear that the time away from BJJ to focus on striking arts and other mma elements was a detriment to his grappling. 

Jones vs Ramos Style Match Up

Ramos hunts more submissions than many champions, but still wins the majority of his matches on points. He hasn’t faced many leg lockers and the last time he was submitted by leg lock was in 2015 by toe hold. 

Ramos will look to get the armbar or choke, though his preferred open guard position isn’t a good idea against an intense leg locker. 

Jones takes the back or enters into the saddle or 50/50. Early in his career he was focused on triangle choke submissions, and with a recent change to a full time instructor position, we may see some of his older game re-emerge. 

It’s clear Jones will do his best to finish Davi. Davi’s 

SUG 27 Main Event: Mason Fowler vs Gabriel Checco

Checco is an 11-5 mixed martial artist turned full time grappler, going up against Mason Fowler. Both men have competed against Polaris 17 Main Event Craig Jones. Checco was defeated in Overtime while Fowler beat Jones back to back in 2020. Mason lost to Jones in 2019 via Guillotine. 

Betting Odds for Flower vs Checco

Fighter Moneyline
Mason Fowler  -750
Gabriel Checko  +500

This grappling bout features a classic mma style moneyline with Flower showing up as a strong favorite. 

Fowler Training Camp for BJJ

Mason currently trains at Dethrone mma and cross trains with Caio Terra and some of the greatest grapplers alive. He’s moving from school to school, training with various champions in different styles. He’s a brown belt under Gabriel Procópio. 

Gabriel Checco Camp for BJJ

Gabriel trains at Zangief Jiu Jitsu in Las Vegas where he is the only active fighter. I can not confirm his lineage or current coaching staff. His instagram shows that he is a black belt in BJJ and cross trains at the UFC Performance institute in Las Vegas. 

Past Performances for Flower and Checco

Mason has only two losses across his pro grappling career. World Champions Kaynan Duarte and Craig Jones have taken him out. His wins include Ryan Bader, Kyle Chambers and Roberto Jimenez. It’s clear that only the most elite athletes are taking out Fowler. 

Checco has won two of his last five grappling matches. His win over Jake Ellenberger is his claim to fame, but his recent losses to William Tackett and Kevin Casey show a grappler who isn’t on Fowler’s level.

Prop Bets for Fowler vs Checco at SUG 27

Fowler is tough to beat, and I think his winning prop bets are the only ones to focus on. Fowler by submission is -150 and Fowler via decision is +265. It’s important to remember that Checco went the distance with Jones and Kevin Casey but was submitted by the more physical William tackett. 

Aaron Tiegs -300 vs Micah Brakefield +240

I’m excited to see Aaron Tiegs getting more attention. He’s a slick submission hunter and has shown rapid improvement coming from a gym that is yet to produce any major competitors. 

 Micah is an MMA fighter at 7-8. He’s a black belt under Don Whitefield and wrestled in college. He coaches at a 10th Planet school. His lanky frame offers some interesting submission outcomes. He’s 5-3 in Pro grappling. 

Jacob Clark / Author

Jacob Clark had a 15 year career as a professional MMA fighter, coach, and Greg Jackson’s alum. Now, TikTok’s 12th most important BJJ influencer is bringing his sports and betting knowledge to you here at TheSportsGeek. He spends his time cooking vietnamese food and playing D&D with his family. You can meet him at jiu-jitsu open mats all over Indiana.

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