ACA 129: Magomedov vs. Sarnavskiy Main Event Pick and Analysis

Yet another Absolute Combat Akhmat is underway, and the main event is a close fight. I’m confident that after looking at the odds, stats, and fight performance history of these two athletes we can make a quality prediction.

Tune in this September 24th on PPV to watch the fights unfold. I’ll throw in a couple top picks for the evening at the end of the analysis. Rashid Magomedov is the #80 lightweight in the world. He’s facing off against Alexander Sarnavskiy, the #138 world-ranked lightweight.

Starting with the odds, we’ll get more technical throughout the analysis.

Rashid Magomedov vs. Alexander Sarnavskiy Odds and Props

Fighter Moneylines and

Payout per Dollar Wagered

Over/Under 2 1/2
Rashid Magomedov -125, $0.87 NA
Alexander Sarnavskiy -105, $0.95 NA

You’ll notice there is no over under. No props have been posted on major betting websites for this card.

Rashid is a slight favorite:
In a straight stat comparison you won’t see why. The tale of the tape will favor Alex, but the fight history will favor Rashid.

The fighters are so close in odds that the payout shouldn’t have any effect on your final bet.

Tale of the Tape for Rashid Magomedov vs. Alexander Sarnavskiy

  Rashid Magomedov Alexander Sarnavskiy
Age 37 32
Height 5’9’’ 5’11”
MMA record 25-5-1 38-8
SUB/TKO 1 Sub, 9TKO 20 Sub, 11 TKO
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Reach 71” 75”
Inactivity 182 Days 210 Days
Last odds -185 -295

The number that stands out first is Alexander’s 20 submission victories. He’s finished 31 of 46 fights, a 67% finishing ratio of all fights and an 81% finishing rate among his wins. Alexander is younger, taller and has a four inch reach advantage.

They’ve been about equal in the activity department. Both fighters are coming off wins as the favorite.

Alexander has lost three more times than Rashid, going up against fighters like Will Brooks and Rich Clementi. It’s clear that they have about the same knockout power, and that Alex seeks the submission far more often. The submissions span back through Alex’s career all the way to his first fight in 2008.

Rashid Magomedov vs. Alexander Sarnavskiy Recent Bouts

Rashid is 3-3 in his last six. He’s struggling with higher-level opponents, and his wins were all by decision. He was in the UFC from 2014 to 2017 going 5-1 with the promotion. His last five have been with the PFL and ACA.

While it may be a popular belief that the PFL has a higher quality of fighter than ACA and ACB, I believe that mostly Bellator and UFC are tentative about ACA and ACB due to visa and travel restrictions.
Alexander is also 3-3 of his last six, but with a much higher quality of fighters. He’s also finished all three opponents in his victories. Alex has fought in major organizations like Bellator and M-1, all the way back in 2011-2013 before the height of their popularity.

To analyse how each of these fighters can win, we’ll look at their few losses. We would include the odds history, but it isn’t readily available.

Rashid Magomedov’s Last Three Losses

Fight Date 10/17/2019 07/25/2019 12/31/2018
Opponent and record Akhmed Aliev 20-7 Nate Andrews 16-4 Natan Shulte 21-4-1
Time Finished Unanimous Decision Unanimous Decision Unanimous Decision

Note that all three losses were by decision. Each bout was for the PFL. Shulte went on to win the division for the year in the fall of 2019.

Please Note:
Each fighter has nearly the same experience level as Rashid. Alexander’s 46 fights is an unusual level of mma to prepare for, especially when you are the older fighter.

Alexander Sarnavskiy’s Last Three Losses

Fight Date 9/19/2020 02/16/2018 04/15/2017
Opponent Abdul-Aziz Abdulvakhabov 18-2 Shamil Nakaev 10-0 Eduard Vartanyan 22-4
Time Finished and Outcome Decision Split Decision 2:46 Submission

Right away, you can see that Alex is taking fights against fighters with less losses. Many of these are ACA champions and contenders. Natan Shulte is the toughest competitor of the three in Rashid’s losses.

Nate Andrews went on to lose his next two fights. Shamil went on to win his Bellator debut. Alex is the only fighter that has fought Shamil to a split decision and came very close to winning it in my mind.

Magomedov has only lost via decision, while Alex has been TKO’d and submitted. I think Mogomedov has the right fighting background, but the wrong skill set.

My Final Pick for Rashid Magomedov vs. Alexander Sarnavskiy:
Alexander Sarnavskiy!

Odds are courtesy of BetOnline. Check out our BetOnline review here

I pick Alexander Sarnavskiy -105

I see a decision victory for Alex that night. There is a small possibility he wins by submission. If Rashid has knockout power in his kicks, but Alex is crafty enough to have prepared for the unorthodox techniques.


Jacob Clark / Author

Jacob Clark had a 15 year career as a professional MMA fighter, coach, and Greg Jackson’s alum. Now, TikTok’s 12th most important BJJ influencer is bringing his sports and betting knowledge to you here at TheSportsGeek. He spends his time cooking vietnamese food and playing D&D with his family. You can meet him at jiu-jitsu open mats all over Indiana.

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