Yet another Absolute Combat Akhmat is underway, and the main event is a close fight. I’m confident that after looking at the odds, stats, and fight performance history of these two athletes we can make a quality prediction.
Tune in this September 24th on PPV to watch the fights unfold. I’ll throw in a couple top picks for the evening at the end of the analysis. Rashid Magomedov is the #80 lightweight in the world. He’s facing off against Alexander Sarnavskiy, the #138 world-ranked lightweight.
Starting with the odds, we’ll get more technical throughout the analysis.
Rashid Magomedov vs. Alexander Sarnavskiy Odds and Props
Payout per Dollar Wagered
|Over/Under 2 1/2|
|Rashid Magomedov||-125, $0.87||NA|
|Alexander Sarnavskiy||-105, $0.95||NA|
You’ll notice there is no over under. No props have been posted on major betting websites for this card.
The fighters are so close in odds that the payout shouldn’t have any effect on your final bet.
Tale of the Tape for Rashid Magomedov vs. Alexander Sarnavskiy
|Rashid Magomedov||Alexander Sarnavskiy|
|SUB/TKO||1 Sub, 9TKO||20 Sub, 11 TKO|
|Inactivity||182 Days||210 Days|
The number that stands out first is Alexander’s 20 submission victories. He’s finished 31 of 46 fights, a 67% finishing ratio of all fights and an 81% finishing rate among his wins. Alexander is younger, taller and has a four inch reach advantage.
Alexander has lost three more times than Rashid, going up against fighters like Will Brooks and Rich Clementi. It’s clear that they have about the same knockout power, and that Alex seeks the submission far more often. The submissions span back through Alex’s career all the way to his first fight in 2008.
Rashid Magomedov vs. Alexander Sarnavskiy Recent Bouts
Rashid is 3-3 in his last six. He’s struggling with higher-level opponents, and his wins were all by decision. He was in the UFC from 2014 to 2017 going 5-1 with the promotion. His last five have been with the PFL and ACA.
While it may be a popular belief that the PFL has a higher quality of fighter than ACA and ACB, I believe that mostly Bellator and UFC are tentative about ACA and ACB due to visa and travel restrictions.
Alexander is also 3-3 of his last six, but with a much higher quality of fighters. He’s also finished all three opponents in his victories. Alex has fought in major organizations like Bellator and M-1, all the way back in 2011-2013 before the height of their popularity.
To analyse how each of these fighters can win, we’ll look at their few losses. We would include the odds history, but it isn’t readily available.
Rashid Magomedov’s Last Three Losses
|Opponent and record||Akhmed Aliev 20-7||Nate Andrews 16-4||Natan Shulte 21-4-1|
|Time Finished||Unanimous Decision||Unanimous Decision||Unanimous Decision|
Note that all three losses were by decision. Each bout was for the PFL. Shulte went on to win the division for the year in the fall of 2019.
Alexander Sarnavskiy’s Last Three Losses
|Opponent||Abdul-Aziz Abdulvakhabov 18-2||Shamil Nakaev 10-0||Eduard Vartanyan 22-4|
|Time Finished and Outcome||Decision||Split Decision||2:46 Submission|
Right away, you can see that Alex is taking fights against fighters with less losses. Many of these are ACA champions and contenders. Natan Shulte is the toughest competitor of the three in Rashid’s losses.
Nate Andrews went on to lose his next two fights. Shamil went on to win his Bellator debut. Alex is the only fighter that has fought Shamil to a split decision and came very close to winning it in my mind.
Magomedov has only lost via decision, while Alex has been TKO’d and submitted. I think Mogomedov has the right fighting background, but the wrong skill set.
I see a decision victory for Alex that night. There is a small possibility he wins by submission. If Rashid has knockout power in his kicks, but Alex is crafty enough to have prepared for the unorthodox techniques.