Rafael dos Anjos vs Fiziev UFC Odds and Predictions

RDA vs Fiziev headlines UFC on ESPN 39. We’ve covered the full card, but now we’re diving deep in the stats and prop bets of the Rafael Dos Anjos vs Fiziev Odds. We gathered the stats from Bovada, our UFC betting site of choice, including 30 bout specials you can only find at Bovada. 

Top Betting Pick for Rafael Dos Anjos vs Rafael Fiziev 

RDA as the underdog is tough to skip. Fiziev is mostly unproven against fighters inside the top fifteen despite skyrocketing to #10 in the division. RDA will be the first top fifteen athlete that Fiziev faces. Fiziev lost to Magomed Mustafaev, a grappler that was outworked by Riddell and submitted by Kevin Lee. I see Dos Anjos putting on a grappling clinic of Fizev, andthe RDA vs Fiziev Odds reward that bet with $180 per $100 wagerd. 

Top Betting Pick for fans of Fiziev

Fiziev has to get the KO if he’s going to win. I could see a bad decision that discounts RDA’s control time as well. For that, I enjoy the double chance prop Fiziev by TKO or Decision at -200, an odds boost to his money line of thirty points. 

Tale of the Tape for Dos Anjos vs Fiziev 

Fighter Rafael Dos Anjos  Rafael ‘Ataman’ Fiziev 
Age 37 29
Height 5’8’’ 5’8’’
Reach/Stance 70’’ Southpaw 71’’, Switch
Record 31-13 11-1
Submissions, TKO in UFC 4/4 0/2
Fighter Training Camp Evolve MMA, Nova União Sanford MMA 

Dos Anjos was last knocked out by Eddie Alvarez in 2016 during a title fight. How The Dos Anjos vs Fiziev odds are so strongly in support of a fighter that has a 33% TKO ratio is confusing. Fiziev’s submission defense will be tested early, and fighters with questionable submission defense, like Magny, Lee and Terry Etim, have been dispatched quickly. 

Dos Anjos vs Fiziev Method of Victory Odds

Bets  Dos Anjos Odds Fiziev Odds 
Money Line  +180 -230
KO/TKO  +750 +225
Decision or Points Win  +340 +135
Submission  +550 +1800
Draw  +6600 +6600
Inside the Distance +385 +200
TKO or Decision  +220 -200
Submission or Decision  +200 +105

Dos Anjos submission props demonstrate the gap between the two fighters’ submission skills. However, RDA is under-represented. He’s finished 4 of 31 UFC appearances by submission, stunning considering these fighters are almost exclusively top ten from 155 and 170 lbs.  

Dos Anjos vs Fiziev Bout Special Bets

There are nearly 30 bout specials, but we’ve narrowed it down to our top six. 

Bet  Odds
Fiziev by TKO or RDA by Points  -110
RDA by Submission or Fiziev by Points  -110
Fiziev by TKO or RDA by Submission  +140
Either Fighter in 1 or 5 +275
RDA by Submission in 2 or 3  +1400
RDA in Last Minute of 4 or Round 5 +2100

There are many bets one might consider, but the Fiziev by TKO or RDA by submission is the most interesting for me. It’s only 30 points better than a ‘Fight Goes the Distance, No’ prop bet, but it accurately reflects the outcomes I see coming. Either Fighter in 1 or 5 is a good bet, considering analysts see an early Fiziev KO (if at all) and I see a late RDA submission. 

Dos Anjos vs Fiziev Over/Under Odds

Bet  Over, Yes Odds Under, No Odds 
1.5 Rounds -525 +340
2.5 Rounds -285 +210
3.5 Rounds -200 +150
4.5 Rounds -155 +120
Fight to Complete 1 Full Round -1100 +600
Fight to Complete 2 Full Round -400 +275
Fight to Complete 3 Full Round -250 +185
Fight to Complete 4 Full Round -200 +150
Fight to Go the Distance  -145 +110

I don’t think the first round is a safe bet, and RDA has seen four decisions in a row. It’s tough to beat the Over/Under because of the massive difference in quality of competition both fighters have faced.

RDA’s bouts with Usman, Covington, Edwards and Chiesa don’t have any crossover in the quality of Fiziev’s opponents.

Dos Anjos vs Fiziev Round Betting odds 

There are dozens of group round betting and round bet odds. We’ve narrowed it down to our top six bets. 

Bet and Rounds RDA Odds Fiziev Odds 
Round 1 +1100 +650
Round 5  +2500 +2800
Rounds 1, 2 or 3 +350 +200
Rounds 4, 5 or Decision  +200 -110
Round 1 by TKO  +2500 +750
Round 5 by Submission  +5000 +12500

RDA in 4, 5 or Decision is my top prop bet. I see a controlling decision or a late submission from him. Fiziev fans should avoid most of these bets, or take the hail mary of Round 1 TKO at +750. I agree that Fiziev needs to win early if he’s to pull this off. 

Dos Anjos vs Fiziev UFC Stats  

Fighter   RDA  Fiziev 
Strikes Landed, Absorbed per Minute  3.62, 3.24 5.35, 5.57
Takedown Accuracy, Defensive Percentage  37%, 58% 50%, 95%
Takedowns in Last 3 11 0
Control Time in Last 3  28:14 0:21
Record in Last 6 3-3 5-1
# of Top 15 Fighters in Last 6 3 0

Fiziev’s 95% takedown defense is impressive. Consider he was taken down once by Riddell off four attempts, and stuffed four of Diakiese’s attempts. Alex White made 11 attempts for 0 successes, but has a 28% takedown accuracy and has never fought a top fifteen fighter. The fact is, Fiziev has untested grappling, and that will change against RDA. 

Dos Anjos vs Fiziev MMA Breakdown 

I think that Dos Anjos striking is something to be respected.

He’s built for MMA striking, landing sudden short shots during the spaces in between grappling and standing exchanges.

Look for RDA to initiate grapples, and land his strikes during Fiziev’s defense. 

Dos Anjos was a welterweight and Fiziev fought at 149 at some points in his career. We’ll see a power differential that will result in moments like this. Magny is known as a machine of conditioning, but good grappling will undermine any athletic advantages Fiziev may have. 

Fiziev has fantastic head movement for kickboxing, but I’m interested to see if RDA fients and advantages. Big head movements setup doubles and body locks in MMA. Look to see RDA catching Fiziev leaning for a takedown. 

Riddell showed us how careful you have to be against Fiziev. We thought he would beat him, but Riddell chose to clinch far less often than we predicted. RDA can’t fight the outside or get stuck against the cage. Against Fiziev, you must clinch your way out. 

Dos Anjos vs Fiziev Betting Odds Wrap Up 

If you’re looking for a combat sports parlay through the weekend, check out our prop coverage of Magsayo vs Vargas. Dos Anjos vs Fiziev odds give the kickboxing champ a lot of credit for grappling he’s never done. I see a ‘ya’ll must have forgot’ moment as RDA dismantles his game entirely. 

Jacob Clark / Author

Jacob Clark had a 15 year career as a professional MMA fighter, coach, and Greg Jackson’s alum. Now, TikTok’s 12th most important BJJ influencer is bringing his sports and betting knowledge to you here at TheSportsGeek. He spends his time cooking vietnamese food and playing D&D with his family. You can meet him at jiu-jitsu open mats all over Indiana.

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