Sterling vs Yan UFC 273 Betting Pick

Our Co-Main event for UFC 273 is the title shot rematch, Sterling vs Yan. Yan lost the fight after landing an illegal knee and Aljamain Sterling has held onto the belt. He’s been the underdog in this rematch as well as the original bout. This betting pick covers the odds and stats for prop bets and our top betting pick for UFC 273’s bantamweight title fight. 
The fight takes place April 9th, 2022. Have your bets in by 11:45 PM ET to ensure you’re in on the action. 

UFC 273 Sterling vs Yan Betting Pick 

Pert Yan is undefeated outside of his disqualifications. His kickboxing is far superior than Sterling’s and only faltered twice during their first match up. Sterling took round one of their first match up, if only by overt aggression. Yan out pointed Sterling for the next three rounds of fight one, collecting seven takedowns and considerable control time. 
Sterling’s camp is in question, and Yan is working with some of the best coaches on the planet. I don’t see an easy path to victory for Sterling other than a flash, catch grappling submission.  

UFC 273 Tale of the Tape for Yan vs Sterling II

Fighter Aljamain ‘Funk Master’ Sterling  Petr ‘No Mercy’ Yan
Age 32 28
Height 5’7’’ 5’7’’
Reach/Stance 71’’ Orthodox  67’’ Switch
Record 20-3 16-2
Submissions/TKO in UFC 4/1 0/4
Fighter Training Camp Team Bombsquad American Top Team, Various 
Significant Strikes Landed/Absorbed 4.8/2.2 5.9/4.1
Takedown Defense  41% 89%

Yan is aggressive with trip takedowns, not focusing on control time but on damaging opponents as they attempt to get back to their feet, or as they turtle up to avoid punishment. Sterling is notorious for giving up the takedown. In Ryan Hall like fashion, Sterling is happy to be on his back, using sweeps and scrambles to find back mount positions. 

UFC 273 Predictions: Is Sterling’s Chin a Concern?

Sterling doesn’t take much damage in the majority of fights, with many fighters too scared of his takedown work to properly engage. However, in fights with Munhoz and other high level bantamweights, he’s found himself absorbing nearly 100 strikes per bout. 
If Sterling can’t outclass you with his BJJ, there’s a fight to be had. 

UFC Stats for Fight 1

Yan gets hit more often, but many of these blows are less significant than UFC stats are accounting for. He uses his arms to block, and that can make it tough to judge a clean shot from a deflected one. UFC stats reported 97 significant strikes in fight one from Sterling, but I counted less than thirty that caught Yan flush, not clipping his gloves, shoulders or forearms. 
We go deeper on comparing fighter camps in the Full Card Preview

UFC 273 Betting Odds and Prop Bets

Bet Available at Odds  
Aljamain Sterling Money Line +355
Petr Yan Money Line -500
Over 3 ½ Rounds -170
Under 3 ½ Rounds  +130
Petr Yan to Score A Knockdown -170
Yan by TKO  +110
Sterling by Submission or Yan by Points  -120
Sterling by Submission +700
Fight Completes 3 Full Rounds  -200

Some of the more interesting prop bets delivered by Bovada are called special bets, bets that apply specific to this fight. I particularly like ‘Yan by points or Sterling by submission’ covering the majority of the outcomes I can see for this main event. Yan knocks out fighters like Faber and Aldo, but mostly these are fighters looking to stand with him without the threat of takedown attempts. Sterling will occasionally catch an early submission. My only concern is the Moraes knockout in 2017. Sterling was stopped after just one minute, showing that he can be caught off guard early in the fight. 
Fight Completes 3 Full Rounds at -200 is a good prop bet. It matches the outcome of their first fight, and we can think less about who’s winning and more about how they will fight. Sterling has had eight of his last eleven fights go the distance or past the third round, while Yan has had six of his last six at least see the third round. 

Best Value UFC 273 Prop

I would be skeptical of most other bets except the special bet Petr Yan to Score a Knockdown. This -170 prop may be a good bet to parlay alongside your Yan money line if you are a Yan fight fan. He scored a knockdown in fight one, and he’s scored a knockdown every fight for his last five fights and six of his nine UFC appearances. 

Top Prop Betting Picks for Sterling vs Yan

  • Fight Completes 3 Rounds if you’re thinking about a bet safe from Aljamain Sterling’s improved performance. 
  • Yan by points or Sterling by submission if you believe in Sterling as a champion
  • Yan scores a knockdown if you’re looking for a highly likely prop, easily one of the safest of the night 


UFC 273 Yan vs Sterling MMA Breakdown

Sterling seemed close to defeat win Yan threw it away. It’s difficult to understand the psychology of a fighter, and Yan has the kind of killer instinct that makes him a difficult fighter to prepare for.

In Yan’s UFC career he has never had a submission attempt counted against him. No one has come close to being successful in catching him, because he is rarely out of position. His takedowns are mostly trips and throws, and as a result he’s rarely left open for back takes or guillotines.


Sterling hasn’t scored a knockout since 2014. His finishes via guillotine or back mount have been the highlights of his career, but losses to fighters like Assuncao and Caraway leave us questioning his striking acumen. He’s a lanky fighter, but was clearly over extended in his bout with Yan. 

Aljamain Sterling UFC Fights and Stats

Sterling has scored no takedowns over his last three fights, relying heavily on his striking to out point fighters like Munhoz and Rivera. His wins over Stamann at -170 and Sandhagen at -111 show how dynamic his grappling can be on its best days. Rivera’s loss to Yan landed half as many punches as Sterling, but with two knockdowns. A trend in Yan’s performances is that UFC stats show him getting hit more often but winning the fight. It’s because he hits hard, and those strikes are more notable than the opponents.
Sandhagen was a fight for Yan, one that took all five rounds. But also a fight that Yan clearly won. If Sterling can’t get the early submission, we have to take into account how much Yan’s strikes had Sterling rocked. After rewatching the fight, a Round 5 Prop bet finish isn’t a bad bet. 

Sterling vs Yan Betting Pick Wrap Up

If you’re struggling to understand why Yan is such a strong favorite, start here. I think that Yan has weaknesses in his game that could cost him in the long run, but not ones that Sterling can advantage in this bout. The first fight was a telling one, and the Sandhagen bouts are tough to compare, as its clear Sandhagen made major leaps in ability in the eighteen months between fights. 


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Jacob Clark / Author

Jacob Clark had a 15 year career as a professional MMA fighter, coach, and Greg Jackson’s alum. Now, TikTok’s 12th most important BJJ influencer is bringing his sports and betting knowledge to you here at TheSportsGeek. He spends his time cooking vietnamese food and playing D&D with his family. You can meet him at jiu-jitsu open mats all over Indiana.

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