Teixeira vs Prochazka Odds and Prediction

UFC 275’s highly anticipated main event between Glover Teixeira and Jiri Prochazka is just a day away. There are 19 betting markets and lines have moved only slightly since early in the week. We’re taking a second look at the fight to offer lucrative alternatives and a deep dive into our top betting pick 

How to Watch and Bet on Teixeira vs Prochazka

UFC 275 is PPV only but can be purchased through ESPN+. Jiri vs Teixeira airs June 11th, 2022 at 11:45 PM ET. Bet on the fight by clicking any of our Place Bet buttons, linking you to our top MMA betting site for the bout. 

Top Betting Pick for Teixeira vs Prochazka

Our top betting pick is the no decision prop bet at -600. Jiri hasn’t been tested enough in the UFC to be sure he’s ready for the title. Glover is a surprising fighter, and few can handle his grappling skill in the late rounds. His consistently underrated striking power could offer a knockout that no one sees coming. The No Decision prop pays $16.67 per $100 wager. This bet is down from -485 earlier in the week, so get your bets in now before it peaks!

Top pick for Glover Teixeira Odds and Predictions

If you’re betting on Glover consider the money line bet at +166 or his TKO/Submission prop bet finish at +255. I’d prefer the lower paying money line. If anyone takes home the decision, it will be Glover. The veteran fighter has better submission work and more upsets than any contender in the division. 

Top pick for Jiri Prochazka Odds and Predictions

The Jiri Prochazka knockout prop pays out at -165, a $60.61 payout per $100 wagered. He is a consistent knockout striker on a nine fight finishing streak. Jiri has never been one to focus on submission finishes, and his money line or decision win would be a rare for this fighter that leaves it all out there, fighting every single round as if it’s the last. 
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Tale of the Tape for Glover Teixeira vs Jiri Prochazka

Fighter Glover Teixeira  Jiri “BJP, Denisa” Prochazka 
Age 42 29
Height 6’2’’ 6’4’’
Reach/Stance 76’’ Orthodox  80’’ Orthodox 
Record 33-7 28-3-1
Submissions/TKO in Career  10/18 2/25
Sub/TKO losses in Career 0/3 1/2
Fighter Training Camp Teixeira MMA and Fitness  Jetsaam Gym BRNO 

Glover’s last bout with a fighter this much bigger than him was Corey Anderson. In bouts where the opponent is much larger than him in both height and reach, Glover tends to fall short. These fighters include Anderson, Gustaffson, and Jon Jones. 

UFC Stat Comparison for Teixeira vs Prochazka Betting

UFC Stats Glover Stats Jiri Stats
Significant Strikes Landed per Minute  3.72 7.19
Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute  3.83 6.8
Takedown Accuracy and Defensive Percentage 39%, 60% 100%, 50%
UFC Record  19-6 2-0

Jiri rarely uses the takedown, but look at the 6.8 strikes absorbed. Jiri’s style creates significant openings and his opponents do land shots. In two bouts, Jiri absorbed 104 significant strikes in just 15:19 of total ring time. 
Glover has a lower takedown accuracy than Jiri’s defense, but only because of the massive number of fantastic wrestlers he’s been up against. Expect Glover to secure the takedown, and that fact should affect your Teixeira vs Prochazka betting pick. 
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Teixeira vs Prochazka Betting Odds

Fighter  Teixeira Bet Prochazka Bet 
Money Line Odds +166 -210
Win by Submission  +300 +2500
Win by TKO +800 -165
Win by Points +650 +675
Draw  +6600 +6600

Jiri is a weak favorite, but Glover has historically upset weak favorites. Strong favorites like Jon Jones blast Glover out of the water. Weak favorites under +200 like Misha Cirkunov, Thiago Santos, and Anthoney Smith were each upset by Glover. 
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Teixeira vs Prochazka Round Betting and Over/Under Odds

Round  Over/Yes Bet Under/No Bet 
1.5 -135 +105
2.5 +170 -225
3.5 +230 -325
4.5 +300 -450
Goes the Distance +335 -600

These odds have moved marginally, +5 to -15 points since Monday. We still feel the under bets and ‘goes the distance, no’ prop bets are your best choices. Jiri’s dedication to fast and furious fights will open him up to Glover’s surprise knockouts and submissions, or will crush the aging champion. 
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Teixeira vs Prochazka Special Prop Bets (Bovada Only)

Bet  Odds
Glover to Have a Takedown in Round 1 -161
Gloveer to have 2 or More takedowns -137
Each Fighter to Have 1 or More Takedowns -110
Jiri to Win by KO in 1,2 or 3 +110
Jiri Takedown in Round 1 +220
Glover to Have a Knockdown +400
Glove to win in First 30 seconds of Round 1 +4500
Jiri by Submission in Round 4 or 5  +12500

Glover to score 1 Takedown is our top Teixeira vs Prochazka special prop bet. He scores an average of 2.11 per fifteen minutes, and has scored no fewer than one per fight over his last four bouts. Aggressive fighters like Jared Cannonier were met with multiple attempts early, totally three successes in one fight. The Teixeira vs Prochaska odds can be bet on the same ticket, even parlaying the special prop bets and other prop bets for the fight! 

Teixeira vs Prochazka Prediction MMA Breakdown 

Prochazka is an interesting fighter. His training methodology isn’t normal, and he has the kind of supranatural self belief we see in other champs like Ronda Rousey and Connor McGreggor. Short lived, yes, but effective in their own right. 

When Prochazka is in the zone, his head movement picks up. He rarely blocks shots, and for Glover this is a boon. Glover likes to tie up to wear on fighters and punch out of clinch breaks when it’s tougher to pull off ducks in rolls like this. 

Here’s Glover baiting Bader into throwing combinations in his range. He can’t box, but he can brawl. The champion lands shots that don’t look like they’ll knock fighters out, but he finds the chin with surprising accuracy. 

We chose a bet that believes in the champion and his skill. Glover isn’t easily put away, and Jiri comes to every fight with the same strategy, a finish and a blinding pace. Teixeira may be the first man to poke holes in that approach in a long time.  

Bet the Fight Goes to Decision, NO prop bet at -600.
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Jacob Clark / Author

Jacob Clark had a 15 year career as a professional MMA fighter, coach, and Greg Jackson’s alum. Now, TikTok’s 12th most important BJJ influencer is bringing his sports and betting knowledge to you here at TheSportsGeek. He spends his time cooking vietnamese food and playing D&D with his family. You can meet him at jiu-jitsu open mats all over Indiana.

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