Hill vs Santos Odds and Prediction

UFC on ESPN 40 is headlined by Jamahal Hill vs Thiago Santos, and we’ve gathered the Hill vs Santos odds from all betting markets from Bovada. We’ll include betting picks for each risk profile, whether you’re looking for a parlay bet or a longshot prop bet with a high payout. 

How to Watch UFC Fight Night: Hill vs Santos 

Top Betting Pick for Jamahal Hill vs Thiago Santos 

Jamahal Hill’s money line is climbing fast, now -350 and up forty points from Monday. He’s the younger fighter by seven years, and his kickboxing centered style matches well against Thiago and his low rate of fire. Currently, the money line pays $28.57 per $100 wager, down $7 from early today. 

Betting Pick for Thiago Santos Fans 

Santos money line isn’t a bad bet, but we would consider the Santos Most Takedowns Landed prop bet at -260. This bet pays out if Thiago lands even 1 takedown.

Hill is yet to shoot in any of his seven UFC competitions to date, and his 60% defense leaves him open to clinch work takedowns.

Steer clear of any method of victory props from Santos. 

Tale of the Tape for Santos vs Hill

Fighter Thiago ‘Marreta’ Santos  Jamahal ‘Sweet Dreams’ Hill 
Age 38 31
Height 6’2’’ 6’4’’
Reach/Stance 76’’ Orthodox  79’’ Southpaw
Record 22-10 10-1, 1 NC 
Submissions, TKO in UFC 0, 11 0, 4

Thiago has far more TKO’s in the UFC and has been active since 2013. He was 29 when he joined the promotion. Hill is seven years younger, and considering how physical he likes to be in the cage, this is a real factor. Santos has faced a string of losses lately against top five fighters, so it’s difficult to tell if Hill has faced the same caliber of athlete, aside from their mutual bout with Johnny Walker. 

Steer clear of the submission props and inside the distance bets.

Knockout props are the only ones worth while. 

Top Hill vs Santos Odds 

Bet Available at Bovada Odds  
Hill Money Line -350
Santos Money Line +265
Over 2 ½ Rounds +130
Under 2 ½ Rounds  -170
Hill by TKO or Decision -260
Santos by TKO or Decision  +240
Santos by points  +650

Hill has never made it to the championship rounds, so the Hill vs Santos odds are surprising when considering the Santos by decision props. We don’t know what hill will look like after round three, and that’s a huge boon to Santos who has been there time and again. 

Still, the Under 2 ½ Rounds prop looks better, with few people believing this fight will go the distance. 

For some reason Hill by TKO or decision isn’t updated and nets you a 90 point gain against his money line. It’s absolutely the top bet right now, but will likely change overnight. 

Hill vs Santos MMA Breakdown

Hill is a fantastic fighter in the flurry. He rushes everyone, regardless of kickboxing pedigree, and stings them. His biggest strength is accuracy. Watch Hill time and again land right on the button, working with weird angles around fighters guards. 

Santos is all about backing up and using range. There are various times in these fights where he opens his guard and moves forward, which won’t fly against Hill. Some of his best decision work is done in the clinch, but it’s unclear whether we’ll see the rangefinding Santos or the heavy, clinch fighting version. 

UFC Fight Night: Hill vs Santos

Click If you’d like to see our full card for UFC on ESPN 40. Hill is an easy fighter to bet on, with his only loss coming from Paul Craig. He’s not the best grappler, but against Thiago we should see a Muay Thai fight at best. We think the Hill money line is right for a parlay. 

Jacob Clark / Author

Jacob Clark had a 15 year career as a professional MMA fighter, coach, and Greg Jackson’s alum. Now, TikTok’s 12th most important BJJ influencer is bringing his sports and betting knowledge to you here at TheSportsGeek. He spends his time cooking vietnamese food and playing D&D with his family. You can meet him at jiu-jitsu open mats all over Indiana.

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