Tsarukyan vs Gamrot Odds and UFC Prediction

The UFC on ESPN 38 main event, Tsarukyan vs Gamrot, has 18 betting markets on Bovada, and we’ll be looking at each of them to produce our top betting pick for every category. 

How to Watch and Bet on Gamrot vs Tsarukuyan

Watch UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs Gamrot on ESPN+, 11:55 PM ET on June 25th, 2022. Any bet now buttons will take you to Bovada, an MMA betting site with some of the highest paying odds for this bout. 

Arman Tsarukyan vs Mateusz Gamrot Top Betting Pick 

Due to recent finishes, the Over bets are undervalued for this fight. In competitive bouts these fighters have seen decision, with neither being finished at the UFC level. In their first five round bout, expect both fighters to have a fight strategy that supports a five round decision win, focused on winning rounds over finishing early. 

Top UFC on ESPN 38 Money Line Pick  

Mateusz is the underdog for the first time in recorded MMA, including his time at Cage Warriors and KSW. He lost once in the UFC to Guram Kutateladze back in 2020 in a very narrow split decision. This is his only career loss. 
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UFC Betting Odds for Tsarukyan vs Gamrot

Fighter  Arman Tsarukyan Mateusz Gamrot 
Money Line -290 +230
Points or Decision +170 +450
TKO +250 +650
Submission +500 +900
Inside the Distance  +135 +375
In Round 1 +450 +800
In Round 2  +700 +1200
In Round 3  +1000 +1600
In Round 4  +1400 +2200
In Round 5 +2200 +2800

Armen is the favorite in every category. We see Gamrot as a very high submission threat, and would be willing to bet the Gamrot submission prop because of Armen’s risky clinch and ground work escape habits. He is fantastic at getting off of his back, but does so by exposing himself to chokes. 

Over Under Bets for Tsarukyan vs Gamrot

Bet Over, Yes Odds  Under, No Odds 
1.5 Rounds  -350 +250
2.5 Rounds -210 +160
3.5 Rounds -155 +120
4.5 Rounds -120 -110
Fight Goes the Distance  -105 -125
Fight Completes Round 1 -650 -450
Fight Completes Round 2 -300 +220
Fight Completes  Round 3 -175 +135
Fight Completes  Round 4 -130 EVEN

The over is our top betting pick, and the Over 2.5 rounds isn’t a terrible bet either. Analysts see the fight ending some time in the championship rounds, which is sensible, considering only Gamrot has five round fight experience in any promotion, namely the Polish promotion KSW.
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Other UFC on ESPN 38 Main Event Prop Bets 

Bet Gamrot Odds  Tsarukyan Odds 
TKO or Decision +250 -175
Submission or Decision +300 -120
Rounds 1, 2 or 3 +400 +200
Rounds 4, 5 or Decision +350 +110
Round 1 Submission +1500 +1000

The ground game of Gamrot is underrated by these betting lines to a ridiculous rate. He’s offering a bigger submission or decision prop than Tsarukyan despite having more overall career submissions, better takedown stats and UFC submissions. Tsarukyan hasn’t even attempted a submission at the UFC level. The odds have gotten more unpredictable in the wake of Jiri Prochaszka’s submission upset. 

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Tsarukyan vs Gamrot Tale of the Tape 

Fighter Arman Tsarukyan ‘Ahalkalakets’  Mateusz ‘Gamer’ Gamrot 
Age 25 31
Height 5’7’’ 5’10’’
Reach/Stance 72’’ Orthodox  70’’ Southpaw 
Record 18-2 20-1, 1NC 
Submissions, TKO in UFC 0, 2 1, 2
Fighter Training Camp Lion Heart (Russia) American Top Team 

Note the Gamrot height and reach differential. Armen has fantastic reach for a short lightweight. Gamrot’s time at ATT has re-built his submission game, winning clinch exchanges (and rounds) will threaten catch submissions.  

Betting on UFC Stats for Tsarukyan vs Gamrot

Fighter  Armen Tsarukyan Matheusz Gamrot 
Takedown Accuracy 37% 40%
Average Takedowns  3.47 5.84
Takedown Defensive % 78% 100%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute 1.36 2.69
Strikes Landed per Minute 3.75 3.79

Tsarukyan is the better defensive striker, taking only twenty four significant strikes in his last three fights. Even Islam Makhachev landed only fourteen in their three round decision. Gamrot absorbed 36 shots in his last fight alone, but will likely look to initiate early grappling exchanges with Armen. 

MMA Breakdown for Gamrot vs Tsarukyan

Gamrot’s power is still undisplayed in the UFC. If a fighter lets their guard down, a flush shot from Gamrot will be an early end. I don’t think this will happen to Tsarukyan, but I do think Tsarukyan will see this and respect that power, drawing the fight into the later rounds with good defensive kickboxing. 

Against quality grapplers, Armen struggled to deal with Islam’s lanky frame. Gamrot isn’t as proven as Islam yet, but his grappling stats are similar. Armen likes to scramble to the feet rather than sweep, which will make Gamrot seek the submission. We think he’s open for it, especially considering Gamrot will have this fight to study. 

Bet the Over 1.5 Rounds prop bet for a 77.8% likelihood of success and winnings of $28.57 per $100 wager. Take the Gamrot money line for a big payout on the upset. 
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Jacob Clark / Author

Jacob Clark had a 15 year career as a professional MMA fighter, coach, and Greg Jackson’s alum. Now, TikTok’s 12th most important BJJ influencer is bringing his sports and betting knowledge to you here at TheSportsGeek. He spends his time cooking vietnamese food and playing D&D with his family. You can meet him at jiu-jitsu open mats all over Indiana.

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