Initially UFC 153 was supposed to feature a title fight between Aldo and Edgar, but Aldo ended up injuring himself. The co-main event between Rampage and Teixeira was also cancelled because Rampage was injured leading up to the fight.
We now have a mostly new UFC 153 fight card with many fighters stepping up on short notice. There is no longer a title fight on the Brazilian card, but Anderson Silva will now fight Stephan Bonner in the main event at the HSBC Arena in Rio de Janeiro.
UFC 153 Main Event Odds & Picks
• Anderson Silva -1000
• Stephan Bonnar +775
Anderson Silva (32-4) has won his last three fights by TKO/KO and now he’ll be jumping up to LHW to fight Stephan Bonnar (15-7) in what should be a quick, but exciting fight. Silva has jumped up weight class on two prior occasions and he finished both of the fights in the 1st round. Bonnar has only lost once in the 1st round, which was in his 1st career loss against Machida in 2003.
Silva is going to win this fight, but I think Bonnar makes it to the final round of the fight. Silva is very technical and precise in the cage and Bonnar will only be able to hang on for so long. Bonnar has lost two fights by TKO/KO and five fights by decision in his career and I think the best bet in this fight is to go with O1.5 rounds at -165 odds (5Dimes).
UFC 153 Main Card Odds & Picks
• Glover Teixeira -350
• Fabio Maldonado +375
Glover Teixeira (18-2) is a huge favourite over Fabio Maldonado (18-5) this weekend. Maldonado has lost his last two fights, but I think the odds are too short on Teixeira to bet him. Both fighters are going to stand in the cage and swing.
Teixeira is the better overall fighter, as he can submit fighters as well. In Glover’s last four fights he has finished his opponent in the 1st round and I think the bet with the best value is U1.5 rounds at +100 (Pinny) although I do like Teixeira to win as well.
• Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira -275
• Dave Herman +276
Big Nog (33-7-1) took a fight against Dave Herman (21-4) on short notice this weekend. Nogueira has been declining with age and I think this is a great shot for the much younger Herman to pick up a quality win. Herman has been knocked out his L2 fights, but Nogueira doesn’t have much more and only has 3 career TKO/KO wins. I’m betting on the underdog here to win.
• Erick Silva -125
• Jon Fitch +115
This fight is probably best to avoid and simply just watch because it could really go either way. Erick Silva (14-2) has been great in the UFC although this is a big step up in competition for Silva and Fitch is hungry to get a win after losing his last fight at UFC 141.
I think the big question is can Silva keep the fight standing up? Silva has the edge in striking and his takedown defence is great. If he can keep Fitch from landing takedowns Silva should be able to win this fight, but it’s very close and tough to bet on.
• Phil Davis -360
• Wagner Prado +336
Phil Davis (9-1) has to fight Wagner Prado (8-0) in Brazil after first bout was stopped from an eye poke by Davis. Prado is a tough prospect in the LHW division and this should be an exciting fight. Prado has great striking while Davis will need to win this fight by utilizing his wrestling and ground work. Prado isn’t a good wrestler and I think Davis gets it done although at -360 I’d pass.
• Demian Maia -145
• Rick Story +135
Rick Story (14-5) is going to look to utilize his wrestling against Maia, but I can’t imagine him being successful. Demian Maia (16-4) has beaten up bigger wrestlers in the past with his use of BJJ and relentless submission attempts. Maia at -145 is good value in my opinion or you could also look to bet on him by submission at plus money although Story has never lost by stoppage.