UFC 155 Odds & Picks – Dos Santos vs. Velasquez 2

The long awaited rematch between Junior Dos Santos and Cain Velasquez is tonight in Las Vegas on UFC 155. The 5-fight card is packed with great fights and there is still plenty of time today to place your wagers at 5Dimes (US Accepted).

Due the holidays I’m posting my picks late this week, but I wanted to make sure I got them up today. While most casual fans will be watching the PPV for the main event I think there is some great value on the other main card fights.

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Latest UFC 155 Betting Lines & Best Bets

• Junior Dos Santos (15-1) -185
• Cain Velasquez (10-1) +175

Dos Santos will put his UFC Heavyweight title on the line tonight against Velasquez in a highly anticipated rematch. In the first fight between these two heavyweights, Dos Santos came away with a 2nd round KO victory over Velasquez at UFC on Fox 1.

The only way that Velasquez has a chance to win is if he can utilize his takedowns. Velasquez averages 6.61 takedowns per 15 minutes and executes his takedowns 71% of the time, but Dos Santos is great at stopping takedowns (88%).

This fight will be won and lost in the striking department. Both fighters average just about 7 strikes per minute in the cage and Velasquez is more accurate (61% vs. 49%). However, in the 1st fight Velasquez didn’t look comfortable in the cage. Take JDS.

• Jim Miller (21-4) -200
• Joe Lauzon (22-7) +190

Many people I’ve talked to this week like Lauzon to win tonight. I went the other way, as I’m much more confident with Miller’s striking in the stand-up department. Both fighters are very inaccurate, but Miller packs a stronger punch than Lauzon.

This fight has the makings of a grappling battle. Lauzon and Miller both work takedowns regularly with Lauzon averaging 3.58 takedowns per 15 minutes compared to 2.17 for Miller. If Miller limits takedowns and watches for submissions he’ll win.

• Tim Boetsch (16-4) -105
• Constantinos Philippou (11-2) +102

Both fighters have won their L4 bouts in the cage with Boetsch having the better quality wins recently. Boetsch is a hard hitting big man that will cause fits for the American Philippou. Philippou is great with a size advantage, but that isn’t the case tonight.

Boetsch has a small edge in height and reach. Philippou doesn’t have a ground game, but he’s great at takedown defense (85%), so this fight will stay standing up. Philippou could catch Boetsch sleeping, but it’s more likely that Boetsch wins with his striking.

• Yushin Okami (27-7) -109
• Alan Belcher (18-6) +105

Yushin Okami is struggling in the UFC despite winning his last fight against Buddy Roberts. Alan Belcher has looked like a man on a mission this year and his most recent win against Palhares was impressive. Belcher is my top underdog pick tonight.

Okami is a bit of a threat to takedown Belcher, but Okami only converts 49% of his takedown attempts. Belcher is way better on his feet than Okami and his 2’’ reach advantage tonight in the cage will help him control the speed of this fight.

• Chris Leben (22-8) -155
• Derek Brunson (9-2) +150

This is the easiest fight on the card in my opinion. Leben is getting up their in age (32), but he still has some good fights left. He’ll need to win tonight against Brunson who is on a 2-fight losing streak and making his debut in the UFC.

Brunson has some hidden power in his strikes that Leben needs to be weary of, but other than that Leben is a better striker that will have the edge when the fighters our on their feet. Souza just KO’ed Brunson and I think Leben will be able to as well.