UFC 157 Odds & Predictions – Rousey vs. Carmouche

Tomorrow night the UFC will feature the 1st fight between women in the promotion. This is a big shift and after UFC 157 you can bet that we’re going to see more women fighting in the UFC.

The PPV card starts at 10pm ET, so make sure you tune in. Most bars will have the fights on and this should be one of the biggest events in awhile. Lots of big favorites are on the card, but we’ll do our best to find value in a few of the fights.

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UFC 157 Main Event Odds & Picks

• Ronda Rousey (6-0) -1000
• Liz Carmouche (8-2) +800

Ronda Rousey was the Strikeforce Champion before being signed by the UFC. She was given the interim bantamweight title for women when she signed and this will be her 1st defense of her title. Rousey will be fighting veteran Liz Carmouche.

Carmouche has the edge in the stand-up without question, but Rousey is insane on the ground. She has won all six of her fights by armbar and many bettors expect her to do the same tomorrow night. However she’s over -500 to win by submission.

There is no value betting on Rousey to win this fight no matter what market you look at. My bet is O1.5 rounds (+305), as I think that Carmouche can keep this fight standing up for the 1st round. This is a 5-round fight, so O1.5 rounds is worth a shot here.

UFC 157 Main Card Odds & Picks

• Lyoto Machida (18-3)-220
• Dan Henderson (29-8) +200

This fight is very close on paper and one thing that’s for sure is we’ll see some fireworks. Machida is more accurate and better at defense in the stand-up than Hendo. The question is whether Machida shows up to fight, as he has been inconsistent.

Henderson hasn’t been in the cage for well over a year now due to a knee injury, but he should be 100%. Before going down with an injury Hendo had won his L4 fight. If Hendo wins he’ll become the #1 contender. I’m betting the underdog Hendo at 2/1.

• Urijah Faber (26-6) -360
• Ivan Menjivar (25-9) +310

Menjivar has looked good in the UFC with a 4-1 record, but his loss to Mike Easton was bad. Faber is on another level and should get back in the win column, but this win wouldn’t mean much for him. Faber should dominate the stand-up.

Faber comes into this fight with a 5’’ reach advantage and should be able to keep Menjivar at bay. Neither fighter will take this fight to the ground. Most of the fight should be done standing up. I like Faber to win, but only on parlays and not SU.

• Josh Koscheck (17-6) -435
• Robbie Lawler (19-9) +375

Koscheck can’t beat the top competition in the division, but he beats everyone else. There isn’t much to say here. Koscheck will fight Lawler in his debut after coming over from Strikeforce. Koscheck will win with his wrestling if he utilizes it properly.

• Court McGee (14-3) -290
• Josh Neer (33-12-1) +245

Both of these fighters need a win after losing their L2. Neer has good power, but this isn’t a good match-up for him. McGee has a 3.5’’ reach edge and is more active in the stand-up. McGee needs to work on his striking accuracy though, as it isn’t good.

Neer isn’t a fighter that will look for takedowns and even if he did McGee stuffs 85% of attempts on him. McGee should be able to takedown Neer also if he wants and work submissions. McGee has 7 submission wins and Neer has been submitted 5X.

Make sure you check out the FX prelims starting at 8pm ET this weekend as well because there are some great fights. Stout and Fodor will kick-off the prelims and the feature fight is between Brendan Schaub and Lavar Johnson, which should end in a KO.