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UFC 158 Picks – St. Pierre vs. Diaz

The UFC is back tomorrow night with a huge UFC 158 event that features a title fight for the welterweight championship. This is going to be a great card and the St. Pierre vs. Diaz fight is going to be one of the better fights in 2013 in my opinion.

There are two other great welterweight fights on the main card as well on Saturday night. The action will be coming to you live from the Bell Centre in Montreal, Canada where St. Pierre is going to have a huge crowd advantage in his fight against Diaz.

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UFC 158 Main Event Predictions

• Georges St. Pierre (23-2) -525
• Nick Diaz (26-8) +415

Well Diaz got this title fight because it’ll sell huge PPV numbers, but he may not be the most deserving. Diaz will be able to hold his own in the stand-up, but St. Pierre isn’t going to stand and bang with Diaz. He’ll simply take him down and pound him out.

St. Pierre averages 4.3 takedowns per 15 minutes in the cage, which is amongst the best in the UFC. Diaz has great boxing, but he isn’t going to do much damage to St. Pierre and we know that it won’t be difficult for St. Pierre to takedown Diaz.

There isn’t value betting St. Pierre to win the fight at -525 unless you put him on some parlays. However, with this fight being hyped so much I think St. Pierre is going to do his best to earn a stoppage victory, which pays +373 at 5Dimes.

UFC 158 Main Card Predictions

• Johny Hendricks -135 (14-1) -135
• Carlos Condit (28-6) +115

This fight could end up being the FOTN, as both of these guys are contenders in the welterweight division. The winner will most likely get the next shot at the title and my money is on Hendricks due to his power and ability to dominate a fight.

Condit is going to want Hendricks to fight at a slow pace, but I expect Hendricks to come out on fire in the opening round. He’ll win the 1st round due to putting on pressure on Condit and in the last two rounds he needs to utilize his wrestling.

• Jake Ellenberger (28-6) -165
• Nate Marquardt (32-11-2) +145

The other welterweight fight on the main card is Ellenberger vs. Marquardt. It’s hard not to like Ellenberger in this fight simply because you never know what you’re going to get from Marquardt in the cage while Ellenberger is typically very consistent.

Ellenberger is 7-2 in the UFC with his only questionable loss against Kampmann. Marquardt hasn’t been the same fighter as he once was and unless he can catch Ellenberger like Kampmann did I think we’ll see Ellenberger take care of business.

• Nick Ring (13-1) -120
• Chris Camozzi (18-5) +100

This fight is going to be fought standing up and banging. Camozzi doesn’t even have a takedown in the UFC and Ring has only landed takedowns in one fight. With this fight likely to be fought standing up it should be very close.

Camozzi has a small edge in the stand-up, but Ring is fighting in front of his fans in Canada. Ring only has 1 career loss and that was by decision against Boetsch. I doubt Camozzi will finish this fight and I think the Canadian will find a way to win a decision.

• Mike Ricci (7-3) -335
• Colin Fletcher (8-2) +275

To kick-off the card we have a fight that really shouldn’t be on the main card in my opinion. Both of these fighters lost in the finals of TUF and to be honest I doubt this fight will be that exciting. However, I do like the underdog at +275 odds.

Fletcher and Ricci are both fairly even on paper. Fletcher will have a nice reach advantage and he looked a lot better than Ricci did in his finals. Fletcher was active in the stand-up and he’s also a threat to submit Ricci, as 7 of his wins are by submission.