The UFC is back in Canada tomorrow night for UFC 161 at the MTS Centre in Winnipeg. Losing the top two fights on the card due to injury sucks, but Nelson has stepped in to fight Miocic, which should be a great co-main event between two heavyweights.
The main event features two veterans. Dan Henderson and Rashad Evans meet in a fight that both need to win. There are a few great fights on the prelim card as well including Jake Shields vs. Tyron Woodley and Toronto’s Sean Pierson vs. Kenny Robertson.
UFC 161 Main Event Odds & Predictions
• Rashad Evans (17-3-1) -115 vs. Dan Henderson (29-9) +112
Evans is on a 2-fight losing streak with losses against Jon Jones and Minotoro. In those fights he has been trying to strictly box without utilizing his takedowns and wrestling. If he employs that same plan against Henderson then he will lose this fight.
Henderson still packs a big right hand that can knockout anyone. Evans still averages 3.54 takedown attempts per 15 minutes in the cage and if he works his wrestling he should have success, as Hendo has weak takedown defense (57%).
Hendo also looked pretty bad in his last fight against Machida where he lost a boring decision. I think after his L2 fights Evans is going to realize his striking isn’t up to par. He needs a win badly right now and my money is on him to win by decision.
UFC 161 Main Card Odds & Predictions
• Roy Nelson (19-7) -240 vs. Stipe Miocic (9-1) +227
Big Country has been on a roll lately. He has won his L3 fights by TKO/KO in the 1st round (Kongo, Mitrione & Herman). Nelson is taking this fight on short notice, but at the same time Miocic has had a shortened time to prepare for the big striker.
Miocic just lost his 1st career fight against Struve (TKO), which doesn’t bode well for Miocic because Nelson fought Struve in the past and knocked him out in just 39 seconds. Miocic has a 7’’ reach advantage, but that won’t matter. I’m on Nelson by TKO/KO at -140 odds at 5Dimes.
• Alexis Davis (13-5) -400 vs. Rosi Sexton (13-2) +355
The Canadian Alexis Davis has won her L2 fights by submission after losing to Kaufmann. Sexton is on a 3-fight winning streak in the CWFC promotion, but I think she’ll be in trouble in this fight. Sexton usually fights at 125lbs, but this fight is at 135lbs.
Davis is younger, bigger and stronger than Sexton. Davis should have no problem taking this fight to the ground and gaining top control over Sexton where she can finish the fight. Sexton 2 TKO/KO losses and I think the best bet here is Davis ITD at -121 odds.
• Pat Barry (8-5) -107 vs. Shawn Jordan (14-4) +105
Both of these strikers have great takedown defense, so expect this to stay standing up until someone is knocked out. Barry has 7 wins by TKO/KO and his L5 fights have ended in the 1st or 2nd round. Jordan has 10 TKO/KO wins and has plenty of power.
Jordan also rarely goes to decision, as 7 of his L9 fights have ended by stoppage. There really isn’t much separating these two fighters and I’m not betting it SU. I did bet this fight ending ITD at -250 odds on a few of my parlays this weekend.
• Ryan Jimmo (17-2) -245 vs. Igor Pokrajac (25-9) +240
Pokrajac is winless in his L2 fights while the Canadian Jimmo just lost his last fight to Te Huna. This is another close fight, but I’m going with Jimmo to win. Both fighters have explosive offense, but Jimmo is a lot more technical and has better defense.
Jimmo was only knocked out in his 1st career fight and has never been since. Pokrajac has power, but Jimmo is smart in the cage and rarely gets himself into bad situations. If Jimmo doesn’t lose the takedown battle I think he definitely wins this fight.