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UFC 163 Picks: Aldo vs. Jung

UFC 163 is on Saturday with the prelims starting at 6:30pm ET on Facebook. The FX prelims start at 8:30pm ET and the PPV card will get underway at 10pm ET at the HSBC Arena in Rio de Janeiro. The main event is for the UFC Featherweight Championship.

Jose Aldo will take on the Korean Zombie in what should be an exciting fight. Lyoto Machida takes on Phil Davis in the co-main event and that’s my underdog pick. The only downside this weekend is most fights have heavy favorites in the betting market.

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UFC 163 Main Event Predictions

  • Jose Aldo -785 vs. Chan Sung Jung +625

Jose Aldo (22-1) puts his belt on the line against Chan Sung Jung (13-3). The Korean Zombie will help PPV numbers on Saturday, but this fight is set-up for Aldo to retain the title. Aldo is quick and technical and he should be able to pick Jung apart.

Jung will move forward at a relentless pace and he can take shots, but eventually Aldo will stop him in his tracks. Aldo has won 13 fights by TKO/KO and he hasn’t lost since 2005. Jung is 3-0 in the UFC, but was KO’ed by Roop in 2010 at WEC 51.

Aldo opened up at -505 at 5Dimes when the odds were released. If you were unable to get on Aldo near those odds then there is no value betting on him now at -785. Look for Aldo to win by TKO/KO, which is -180 right now at 5Dimes.

UFC 163 Main Card Predictions

  • Lyoto Machida -370 vs. Phil Davis +310

I’m in the minority on this fight, but I think Phil Davis (11-1) can win this fight and move up the LHW ladder. Machida likes to pick his opponents apart, but Davis has a 5’’ reach advantage and can utilize his leg kicks to score points in a close decision.

If Davis is smart he’ll frustrate Machida with leg kicks and then when he can he’ll go in for the takedown. Machida is in title talks, but his last fight wasn’t impressive at all. Davis can make some noise in the division with a win and I’m on him for a ½ unit SU.

  • Cezar Ferreira -425 vs. Thiago Santos +340

Thiago Santos (8-1) hasn’t fought since last July and is making his UFC debut. Cezar Ferreira (5-2) was on TUF Brazil and he won in his UFC debut against Sergio Moraes by decision. Ferreira is a deserving favorite, but this fight doesn’t interest me.

Both fighters have questionable losses in their careers and while Ferreira is more well-rounded, but at -425 the odds are too high to interest me. The method of victory market isn’t great either, as Ferreira could win by TKO/KO, submission or decision.

  • Thales Leites -125 vs. Tom Watson +105

Tom Watson (16-5) lost a decision to Tavares in his UFC debut, but bounced back with a KO win over Nedkov in February. Tom is easily the better striker in this fight, as Leites stand-up leaves a lot to be desired, but Leites is dangerous on the ground.

Thales Leites (20-4) has 13 submission wins and will try to take this fight to the ground. Watson isn’t terrible on the ground and if he can close the distance in the stand-up game his power may come into play, but Leites has a 5’’ reach advantage.

This is going to be a close fight, but I’ve bet on Watson to win. Watson’s 1st two career losses in 2007 came by submission, but he has worked on his ground game and hasn’t been submitted since. Either way, this fight should be exciting to watch.

  • John Lineker -440 vs. Jose Maria Tome +350

John Lineker (21-6) is 2-1 in the UFC with two straight wins over Urushitani and Gashimov. He has proven to have nice power and he’s also active in the cage (6.74 SLpM). He’ll have to take this fight to Jose Tome (33-3) who’ll be making his UFC debut.

Tome hasn’t lost in 17 fights now and he’s finally got the call to the UFC at age 31. Tome has 15 TKO/KO wins and 13 wins by sub, so he’s no slouch. I think Lineker by decision +225 is the best bet. Tome’s 3 losses have been by sub, but Lineker is unlikely to sub him.