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UFC 164 Picks: Henderson vs. Pettis

Benson Henderson and Anthony Pettis will fight for the lightweight championship in the main event at UFC 164 on Saturday. There are also going to be a few other interesting fights including Frank Mir vs. Josh Barnett and Dustin Poirier vs. Erik Koch.

The pay-per-view fight card will be coming to fans live from the Bradley Center in Milwaukee. The action starts on Facebook at 6pm ET with 3 fights and then there are 4 fights on the FX prelims before the PPV gets underway.

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UFC 164 Main Event Predictions

  • Benson Henderson -115 vs. Anthony Pettis -105

Benson Henderson (19-2) is a perfect 7-0 in the UFC. His last loss was at WEC 53 against Pettis in one of the best fights ever. This is going to be a heated rematch and I’ll take Henderson at -115. He opened at -160 and the odds are likely to increase Saturday.

Henderson has improved more than Pettis since their 1st fight. The problem for Smooth in the 1st fight was he tried to brawl instead of utilizing his insane grappling. With the UFC title on the line expect Henderson to keep Pettis up against the cage most of the fight.

Pettis has looked great lately with two straight KO wins (Cerrone & Lauzon). Both KO’s earned him the KOTN bonus, but unless he can bait Smooth into another brawl his chances aren’t too good. I also like this fight going the distance at -135 odds at 5Dimes.

UFC 164 Main Card Predictions

  • Josh Barnett -175 vs. Frank Mir +155

Josh Barnett (32-6) opened up at -230 and his odds are now just -175 against Frank Mir (16-7). Mir has lost his last two fights and he has to win soon. Barnett is making his 2nd stint in the UFC where he has a 4-1 record. This is going to be a great fight.

I’d side with Barnett for sure against most heavyweights due to his submission game, but Mir has never been submitted. This fight is most likely going to stay standing up until one of them gets rocked. I won’t be betting on this fight, but if I did I’d back Mir here.

  • Chad Mendes -450 vs. Clay Guida +400

This fight will be interesting to watch and there is no way I’d back Chad Mendes (14-1) at these crazy odds. Clay Guida (30-13) is one of the toughest fighters to go up against because of his style. He’s a big guy and likes to simply lay his opponents flat on the mat.

He won’t win many fight bonuses with that style, but he has the potential to beat Mendes. Both fighters are good wrestlers, but with Guida now at featherweight he has a chance to earn a title shot. Guida knows he has to win this fight. I think it goes the distance.

  • Brandon Vera -110 vs. Ben Rothwell +100

Brandon Vera (12-6) and Ben Rothwell (32-9) are both lucky to even be on the main card of a PPV event in my opinion. Both fighters have struggled lately, but Rothwell has been fighting some tough guys and I think he should be the one favored in this fight.

Neither fighter is likely to take this fight to the mat, so expect a slugfest. With that being said I’m betting on Rothwell. Rothwell is all about power and Vera has shown he can be knocked out fairly easily. I don’t like either fighter, but Rothwell looks like a good bet.

  • Erik Koch -150 vs. Dustin Poirier +140

Erik Koch (13-2) and Dustin Poirier (13-3) both need to get back in the win column to get back into title contentions. Koch is a decent striker, but he doesn’t have over the top power or anything. Poirier is way more active in the stand-up and has a 3’’ reach advantage.

Poirier is also more capable of taking this fight to the mat and scoring points on the judges scorecards. I don’t really like the fact that I like so many underdogs this weekend, but that’s the way it is. I’m betting on Poirier to win this fight, as he’ll go all out to win here.