UFC 172 is tomorrow night and I’ll be looking to provide readers with another profitable night. We’re in for a great fight card, which will include a title fight between Jones and Teixeira. The action will unfold at the Baltimore Arena in Baltimore, Maryland with the 1st fight starting at 7PM ET.
The main card is only available on PPV, but tune in to the prelims live on UFC Fight Pass and Fox Sports 1 beforehand. Benavidez and Gomi are both fighting on the prelims. Jessamyn Duke and Bethe Correia are fighting each other and both ladies are looking to move to 2-0 in the UFC.
UFC 172 Main Event Predictions
· Jon Jones (19-1) –500 vs. Glover Teixeira (22-2) +430
Jon Jones opened up at –600 and has been bet down, which to me is surprising. Glover Teixeira is a brawler that loves to finish. He is 5-0 in the UFC with 3 TKO/KO and 2 submission wins. I question how battle tested he is though, as he has only fought one T10 LHW.
Jones had trouble against Gustafsson because of his technical ability, but Teixeira isn’t nearly as technical. He’ll look to finish Jones in this fight early, but look for Jones to use his 8.5’’ reach advantage in the stand-up to keep Teixeira at a distance early on.
I expect Jones to finish this fight and I’m betting on Jones ITD (-150 Odds), which is much better value than betting him SU. This is a 5-round fight and Teixeira has only been out of the 2nd round 4 times in 24 career fights, so his cardio is another question mark.
UFC 172 Main Card Predictions
· Phil Davis (12-1-1) –210 vs. Anthony Johnson (16-4) +190
We’ve seen the odds on Phil Davis gradually climb up this month and he’s now a –210 favorite. I’m betting on Davis, but at this point I think the best plan of attack is to wait until close to the fight and see if his odds drop a bit if late money comes in on Johnson.
Johnson has a ton of power and has won 4 of his L5 fights by TKO/KO. However, those wins weren’t with the UFC. This is his 1st fight back and he has a tough match-up. Davis will be able to weather the early storm, take this fight to the ground and win by decision.
· Luke Rockhold (11-2) –900 vs. Tim Boetsch (17-6) +700
Since 2008, Rockhold is 9-1 with the UFC and Strikeforce. His lone loss was against Belfort last year, but he has since bounced back with an impressive 1st round KO over Philippou. His opponent, Boetsch, is now 33 years old and is only 1-2 in his L3 fights.
This fight doesn’t interest me much. I like Rockhold to get the win, but I’m on the fence as to whether or not he can finish Boetsch. I most likely won’t be betting this fight tomorrow night, but if I had to I’d be betting on Rockhold to win ITD (-137 Odds).
· Jim Miller (23-4-1) –190 vs. Yancy Medeiros (9-1-1) +170
I may be falling into a trap, but I have no clue why the odds on Miller are dropping the last couple days. Medeiros lost to Khabilov in his UFC debut and followed that up with a NC against Edwards. He also took this fight on short notice although he got a full camp in.
He was supposed to fight on the prelims, but jumping up to fight Miller will be tough. Medeiros has some power, but Miller hasn’t been KO’ed in his career. I’m betting on Miller ML plus I’ll also be betting on him to win this fight ITD (+300 Odds).
· Andre Fili (13-1) –150 vs. Max Holloway (8-3) +140
Fili looked good in his UFC debut, as he won by TKO, but that was against Larsen. Holloway is just 22 years old, but he is 4-3 in the UFC already and has a lot of top level fighting experience for his age. I expect that experience to come into play on Saturday night.
If you look at Holloway’s losses they were against Poirier, Bermudez and McGregor. All three are very tough fighters. Fili I don’t think is a deserving favorite. He may win, as this will be a close fight, but I’m definitely betting on Holloway as an underdog in this fight.