UFC 175 Picks: Weidman vs. Machida

The UFC is putting on a blockbuster event this Saturday, July 5th 2014 in celebration of Independence Day. It should be one of the best events of the year. UFC 175 will be hosted at the Mandalay Bay Events Center in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Chris Weidman is fighting Lyoto Machida for the middleweight title while Ronda Rousey gets back into the cage to defend her title against the Canadian Alexis Davis. When Urijah Faber is on the prelim card you know that the fight card is stacked with talent.

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UFC 175 Main Event Predictions

· Chris Weidman (11-0) –178 vs. Lyoto Machida (21-4) +167

Lyoto Machida has gone 2-0 since dropping to middleweight with wins over Munoz and Mousasi. Chris Weidman had two wins over the Spider last year and he has now won three in a row by knockout. He’s in his prime whereas Machida is no longer at his best.

The big edge in this fight should be the wrestling ability of Weidman. He has averaged 4.0 takedowns per 15 minutes in the cage and if he can takedown Machida consistently he’ll be able to utilize his ground and pound to eventually earn a late TKO/KO win.

UFC 175 Main Card Predictions

· Ronda Rousey (9-0) –1000 vs. Alexis Davis (16-5) +800

There isn’t much to say here. Ronda Rousey will win this fight, but the bigger question is can she finish the fight in R1? All but one of her fights has been finished in the opening round. Alexis Davis isn’t on the same level as Rousey, but she should survive a round.

My best bet for the co-main event is over 1.5 rounds (-101). Davis has two black belts (BJJ & JJJ), a great submission game and she’s a better striker than in the past. It’s only a matter of time before she gets stopped, but look for her to last well into the 3rd round.

· Stefan Struve (25-6) –155 vs. Matt Mitrione (7-3) +145

The question you have to ask yourself about this fight is whether Mitrione has the power to knockout Struve? Mitrione has won six of his seven fights by TKO/KO. The knock on Mitrione is that he gasses quickly and is usually stopped if he doesn’t get an early KO.

A quick glance at Struve’s record will tell you that he has been KO’ed five times. Four of those KO’s were in the UFC (JDS, Nelson, Browne & Hunt) against strikers with heavy hands. I don’t feel Mitrione is as talented as those fighters, so I’ll be on Struve to win.

· Uriah Hall (8-4) –470 vs. Thiago Santos (9-2) +375

These two fighters have a lot in common. Both prefer to stand-up and bang, both have great leg kicks and both have KO power, but Hall is slightly better in every category. Should he be priced at –470 to win? I honestly don’t think so after watching Santos.

Santos has been a massive underdog in both of his UFC fights. He was quickly knocked out in his debut, but he bounced back with a quick KO win over Markes. Hall has only ever been KO’ed by Weidman, but Santos has the power to pull off this upset.

· Russell Doane (13-3) –110 vs. Marcus Brimage (6-2) +100

If you enjoy two strikers going at it you’ll want to watch the opening fights on the main card. Doane won his UFC debut over Issa by submission earlier this year, so he’s still inexperienced. Brimage is 3-1 in the UFC after losing his last fight by TKO against McGregor.

Brimage has 1 TD in four fights and Doane is unlikely to attempt any. I’m betting on Doane, as he has much better defense (Doane 1.70 SApM vs. Brimage 4.32 SApM) and has more accurate striking (50% vs. 35%). Brimage is the bigger name, but Doane will win.