It has been a little while since we had a UFC pay-per-view event. The main event title fight (Bantamweight) between Dillashaw and Barao should be awesome. However, the rest of the main card isn’t great considering this is a PPV fight card.
Ferguson vs. Castillo should be a good fight, but hardly co-main event material in my opinion. I’m also interested in seeing Ferreira get back in the cage after his impressive promotional debut. On the prelims, Brunson vs. Larkin will be a war early on.
UFC 177 Main Event Predictions
· T.J. Dillashaw (10-2) –155 vs. Renan Barao (32-2-0-1) +135
The odds on Dillashaw opened at –140 and have gone up. I’ve seen a lot of handicappers say Barao will get revenge and his title back in this rematch. I’m of the belief that the Dillashaw we’ve recently is what we can expect from the young fighter in the future.
Dillashaw dominated the first fight will excellent striking. Both fighters have incredible takedown defense and neither landed a TD in the first fight. This fight will be won on the feet where Dillashaw has an edge in SLpM, SApM, accuracy and speed.
UFC 177 Main Card Predictions
· Tony Ferguson (15-3) –260 vs. Danny Castillo (17-6) +220
Ferguson is 5-1 in the UFC and has two consecutive stoppage wins over Rio and Kikuno. Castillo won by KO over Brenneman earlier in the year and lost to Barboza prior to that. Both of these guys have a loss against Michael Johnson in the UFC.
Castillo averages over 1 TD attempt per round, but Ferguson has never been taken down in the UFC. Ferguson is lanky and will have a huge 5’’ reach advantage. Ferguson is an active striker with power and the best bet is on him to win ITD (+105 Odds).
· Bethe Correia (8-0) –140 vs. Shayna Baszler (15-8) +120
Correia is undefeated in her career and she holds a 2-0 record in the UFC. Baszler is making her UFC debut, but she has experience against some of the top women. She hasn’t fared well in those fights though, as she’s just 1-2 in her last three outings.
This fight is likely to be fought on the feet and Correia has an edge in just about every striking category. She’s more active, accurate and she absorbs fewer strikers than Baszler. At just –140 odds I really like Correia and she’s my best bet on the entire card.
· Carlos Diego Ferreira (10-0) –185 vs. Ramsey Nijem (9-4) +160
Nijem has a 5-3 UFC record, but he has won his last two fights, which were both in 2014. This is a tough fight. I like Ferreira a lot, as he looked great in his debut. Ferreira has excellent grappling and he’s also a beast on the ground, which is important to note.
It’s likely that Nijem will work takedowns like he usually does. Ferreira has a limited sample size, but I expect him to be able to hold his own on the ground and lock in a submission. Nijem has been tapped twice and Ferreira has is a submission specialist.
· Yancy Medeiros (9-2-0-1) –110 vs. Damon Jackson (9-0) –110
Jackson is not only making his debut in the UFC, but he’s moving up a weight class on nine days notice to fight Medeiros. Now I have to admit that Medeiros isn’t going to instill fear in his opposition, as he has gone 0-2-0-1 in his last three fights in the UFC.
Medeiros has a solid striking base and he’s relentless in the cage. Jackson is coming up a weight class for this fight and he’s going to have problems dealing with the aggression of The Kid. Medeiros also needs to win and I expect him to come out firing.