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UFC 182 Picks: Cormier vs. Jones

The UFC is on Saturday night on pay-per-view. It’s the first card of 2015 and the main event will sell the card. I’m not too hype on the card other than the final two fights of the night, but there is no way that I’m going to miss the battle between Jones and Cormier.

Jones and Cormier have been trash talking for months and now they’ll finally get in the cage. Cerrone vs. Jury in the co-main event is going to be a great fight as well. Apart from these two fights the rest of the main card is fairly weak, especially for a PPV event.

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UFC 182 Main Event Predictions

  • Jon Jones (20-1) –160 vs. Daniel Cormier (15-0) +150

I honestly wouldn’t mind Cormier knocking out Jones in this fight, but I just don’t see that happening and I don’t bet with emotions, so I’ll be placing a 2U bet on Jones ML. This price is too short on him. Jones is a mismatch for Cormier and it should show.

Both fighters average just over 2 TD’s every 15 minutes, but Jones has 96% TD defense and Cormier has never been taken down in a UFC fight. This fight will be fought standing up most likely and Jones will be able to utilize his 12’’ reach edge to pick Cormier apart.

UFC 182 Main Card Predictions

  • Donald Cerrone (25-6-0-1) –140 vs. Myles Jury (15-0) +130

Cerrone is on another big winning streak (5) and he has to keep winning to move up the division. Jury (15-0) is still young (26) and he’s already 6-0 in the UFC. Cerrone will look to keep this fight standing and try for the KO, but Jury is unlikely to get KO’ed.

Jury only absorbs 1.22 SLpM, which is great. I expect Jury to attempt multiple TD’s to take this to the mat. Cerrone only has 67% TD defense. I could make a case for both fighters winning, but the best bet in this fight is to take the O2.5 rounds at –165 odds.

  • Nate Marquardt (33-13-2) –135 vs. Brad Tavares (12-3) +125

Here we have two struggling fighters, but one is still young and has a future (Tavares) while the other (Marquardt) is on his way to retirement after a great career. Marquardt broke his 3-fight losing streak with a win over Te Huna, but he has lost a step.

Tavares has never been submitted and that’s the only way I see Marquardt winning this fight. Tavares has decent TD defense (69%) and in the stand-up he lands more strikes than Marquardt. Tavares is a live underdog that I’ll be taking a shot on this weekend.

  • Kyoji Horiguchi (14-1) –705 vs. Louis Gaudinot (6-3-0-1) +570</li

Horiguchi is 3-0 in the UFC and his striking is unreal for a bantamweight. He’s fast, accurate and relentless. He averages 4.56 SLpM while Gaudinot absorbs 7.80 SLpM. Gaudinot is 1-2-0-1 in the UFC. He was KO’ed by Bedford back in 2011 and will be again.

I’m surprised that we’re getting Horiguchi by TKO/KO at +120 odds, but I’ll bite. Horiguchi has nine TKO/KO wins including three in his last four fights. Gaudinot isn’t much of a threat to land TD’s and keep this on the mat, so I’ll gladly take the favorite by TKO/KO.

  • Hector Lombard (34-4-1-1) –750 vs. Josh Burkman (27-10) +600

I’ll be on Lombard ITD at –142 odds in this fight. A lot of people think this may go the distance, but Burkman has never fought any opponent like Lombard. Burkman is experienced and has never been KO’ed but don’t allow that to fool you on this fight.

I’m going with ITD because Lombard could realistically lock in a submission. Burkman has been submitted six times and Lombard has seven career submission wins although none in the UFC. Lombard should easily dominate as he’s on another level than Burkman.