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UFC 186 Picks: Johnson vs. Horiguchi

We finally have another pay-per-view event, as UFC 186 will be hosted in Montreal, Quebec, Canada at the Bell Centre. It’s great to have a PPV card, but unfortunately this fight card has been decimated by injuries and suspensions – leaving us with a poor card.

There were supposed to be two title fights, but T.J. Dillashaw vs. Renan Barao is no longer on the card. Demetrious Johnson is still fighting Kyoji Horiguchi and the fight is the main event now. The card isn’t great, but there’s still money to be made tomorrow.

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UFC 186 Main Event Predictions

  • Demetrious Johnson (21-2-1) –840 vs. Kyoji Horiguchi (15-1) +660

Is Horiguchi ready for a title fight? We’ll find out soon. The Japanese fighter is 4-0 in the UFC, but who has he beaten? No one really and that’s a concern heading into this fight. Mighty Mouse is one of the best fighters in MMA and he should cruise to victory.

Betting Johnson at –840 to win doesn’t interest me, but I’m taking a shot on him to win by submission (+250) at 5Dimes. Horiguchi has been put on his back in the past and Johnson will zone in on TD’s. Once on the mat, Johnson will tap out Horiguchi.

UFC 186 Main Card Predictions

  • Quinton Jackson (35-11) –270 vs. Fabio Maldonado (22-7) +248

Rampage really wants to be fighting in the UFC, as he had to win an appeal to even be allowed to fight. Maldonado is an aging vet who shows up to fight, but he’s nothing special. I lean to Jackson winning the fight, but there’s no way I’d bet him at –270 SU.

These two guys don’t have much of a wrestling or ground game, so expect a back and forth striking battle. Rampage has more power in his strikes and I expect him to buckle the Brazilian. I’m already on U2.5 rounds (+117) and will be on Rampage by TKO/KO too.

  • Michael Bisping (25-7) –145 vs. C.B. Dollaway (15-6) +135

Bisping is only 3-4 in the UFC since 2012 – with wins against Stann, Belcher and Le. Not great to be honest, plus Bisping looks to have lost a step or two recently. He’s still a point machine due to great kickboxing and he’s averaging 4.36 SLpM (39% accuracy).

I’m betting on Dollaway to win as the underdog. Standing in the pocket and banging with Bisping isn’t a good idea, but Dollaway isn’t likely to do that, despite his improved striking. Dollaway should look to land takedowns like Kennedy did when he beat Bisping.

  • John Makdessi (12-3) –160 vs. Shane Campbell (11-2) +150

Makdessi is a veteran who often fights on the prelims, but he’ll be on the main card this weekend in his home province. Makdessi is 5-3 in the UFC since joining in 2010, but he doesn’t fight too often and the newcomer Campbell will test him.

Campbell is making his UFC debut and getting better every fight. He has three TKO/KO wins in a row. Makdessi is off a questionable loss and I’ll be on Campbell to win at +150 odds. Campbell is considerably bigger and will be able to use his size to his advantage.

  • Thomas Almeida (17-0) –430 vs. Yves Jabouin (20-9) +380

Almeida is a huge favorite, but he has very little experience. He beat Gorman in his UFC debut by decision. His striking was good, but he was taken down twice. Jabouin is coming off a win against Easton – a fight where Jabouin was able to land five takedowns.

Jabouin has been KO’ed four times and it’s likely the Brazilian will finish with a TKO/KO. Almeida has 13 TKO/KO wins, but he wasn’t able to finish Gorman. I haven’t bet this fight yet, but I’ll either be betting small on Jabouin to win or nothing at all.