UFC 249 Betting Pick: Bryce Mitchell vs Charles Rosa

If you haven’t had the chance to see Thug Nasty fight, you’re missing out.

The 25-year-old from Sherwood, Arkansas is hell on the mat.

The Brazilian Jiu Jitsu Brown Belt is 12-0 in his professional MMA career with 9 submissions.

He most recently submitted Matt Sayles via twister in the first round back in December of last year.

What is a twister?

It’s pretty rad. There has only been one other Twister tap in the UFC and fellow Featherweight The Korean Zombie pulled that one off a few years ago.

It’s not comfortable. I can promise you that.

His opponent Charles Rosa, though, is coming off a submission win of his own.

It was quite surprising as well when he tapped Manny Bermudez with an armbar from his guard.

Bermudez is known for his size and submission prowess and Rosa snatched that arm up like 3 tacos on a Tuesday.

It is going to be interesting because I give Bryce the wrestling advantage, and since the striking advantage goes to Rosa, Mitchell will likely take him down.

BetOnline.AG has the odds for us today.

Let’s go ahead and break this fight down.

I think we have some of the best value on the card with this fight.

Bryce Mitchell (-163) vs Charles Rosa (+143)

Over 1.5 Rounds
-345
Under 1.5 Rounds
+250

I really thought the line would be farther apart when it opened and even farther now but there has been money coming in on Rosa and it’s going the other way.

Bermudez was the sacrificial lamb.

He got caught in that armbar so Bryce Mitchell will not.

My big worry here is that Rosa is able to defend the takedown of Mitchell and the vet out-classes the youngster on the feet.

Here’s a clue for you guys.

The UFC does push certain fighters by giving them favorable matchups until it’s time to take the next step, and if they want you to leave, you’re going to get some unfavorable ones.

This isn’t true for every fighter but generally speaking, that’s how it goes.

Bryce Mitchell is getting the push here.

Why?

He is exciting. He has finished 9 of 12 pro fights with a submission.

He’s also as fearless on the mic as he is when he’s fighting.

Who hasn’t wanted to kick a politician’s butt before?

Thug Nasty has some other effortless lines during post-fight interviews if you get bored.

Rosa is a gamer and Mitchell a finisher, so I don’t see either guy coasting.

Mitchell will be smart to try to pass guard and eliminate the possibility of the armbar. That’s when Rosa will get squirmy and Bryce gets Thug Nasty with it.

I think both the over betting line is off and the moneyline on Mitchell.

Sportbet.com has several valuable betting options for how Mitchell will finish.

I think he might try and get the first TKO of his career with ground and pound. He likely could have done it before but the sub has been his chosen route.

That line is nearly 10 to 1.

Let’s just take the moneyline here with Bryce at (-163). This is the lowest we have seen it so far.

I think it’s a steal.

My Pick
MITCHELL

Bonus Parlay Bets

Option #1

Carla Esparza and Bryce Mitchell: Bet 100.00 to win 173.00

Option #2

Carla Esparza, Bryce Mitchell, and Anthony Pettis Bet 100.00 to win 355.00

I feel pretty good about our two anchors. I’m slightly higher on Bryce than Carla but the latter has more top control than anyone in the history of her division.

I really like Anthony Pettis too.

He doesn’t get beat by getting TKO’d by a striker.

There is always wrestling and a strong pace put on him and he wilts from being tired and the pressure.

Cowboy presents none of those problems and Pettis dominated the first fight and finished him in less than 5 minutes.

Cerrone isn’t the type of guy, either to put together the perfect game plan.

He goes out there and fights. He tried to knock your head off and if you take him down, he tries to choke you.

I believe Pettis has a hand speed and accuracy advantage that will be the difference here.

Let’s hit the 3-teamer.

My Pick
Pettis, Esparza, Mitchell Parlay

In Conclusion

I think we will see a finish in this fight. I don’t want to put my money there but I think the aggressive nature of both fighters could take us towards that outcome.

Bryce has some very slick submissions but hasn’t been able to catch each of his UFC opponents.

With that said, though, Rosa is aggressive in defensive positions on the ground.

He doesn’t mind working off of his back as opposed to always standing up immediately, or at least trying to, as soon as the fight hits the mat.

I really like that parlay as well.

Even though Carla is a much more consistent cash cow type of fighter than Anthony Pettis, I almost feel more confident in Showtime getting the win.

Their odds are almost the same but for opposite reasons.

Carla is used to being in this position with similar betting odds and she usually comes out on top.

I just think about Michelle Waterson’s massive legs and how strong they could be on a sprawl if she times the shot well.

Esparza is a machine, though, and sticks to the plan as well as anyone.

Enjoy the fights and get those bets in now!

Mike Pruitt / Author

Mike has been covering sports professionally since 2017 but on the amateur scene for 25 years since when he was 12. Before the internet changed the world, he would keep detailed statistical box scores of NFL and NBA contests, write recaps, and voluntarily commentate games and fights alone in his room. Mike's military experience, Bachelors Degree, and employment thereafter were always rooted in engineering, science, and teaching. Now he enjoys being able to express himself through writing about football, golf, and car racing among other sports but most of all fighting as his life has been rooted in mixed martial arts including competing and teaching for the past 15 years.