UFC 250 Betting Pick: Alex Perez vs Jussier Formiga

This is an interesting one!

The only flyweight matchup on Saturday’s fight card, Jussier Formiga vs Alex Perez has the potential to be the fight of the night.

The smaller cage, in all likelihood, will produce more action as it did last week in the UFC’s first event back in their home of Las Vegas, Nevada.

Alex Perez is a rising star with a lot of potential and Jussier Formiga has been one of the flyweight division’s most dangerous submission fighters for 8 years now.

Formiga was 9-4 in the UFC with 3 submission victories before he lost to Joseph Benevidez for a second time.

Ol’ Joe B better get a hall of fame nod. He has been one of the most consistent and dominant fighters to have never held a belt in the history of the organization.

Jussier will be the smaller man in this fight.

  • He could probably fight at 120 pounds but his opponent, Alex, looks more like a 135er.

Perez will have the size and, on paper, the wrestling advantage.

  • He has been wrestling since the 6th grade and was a JUCO ALL-American is his sophomore year at a small California school.

That is really impressive. He could have potentially gone on to be a national champion as a senior.

I do believe Alex will want to use his wrestling base to keep the fight standing because as athletic as he is, I don’t think he wants to get into a scrambling match on the mat with Formiga.

Jussier’s weakness is striking and that he is a bit undersized.

Can Perez exploit those weaknesses and send the 35-year-old tumbling down the rankings with a loss?

Or will the submission ace outlast the bigger stronger opponent and take his back late in the fight?

BetOnline.AG has the betting odds for us today.

Let’s get to our UFC betting predictions for the matchup between Jussier Formiga and Alex Perez.

Alex Perez (-130) vs Jussier Formiga (+110)

Over 2.5 Rounds:
-220
Under 2.5 Rounds
+180

I heard one of my colleagues say that this fight was his best pick of the week.

Man, I wish I had as much clarity.

I have already put a couple hours into researching for this fight.

We have yet to see any fighter other than Joe Benevidez, who beats almost everyone, threaten Alex Perez with takedowns.

Perez does keep his right hand up which should defend against Jussier’s best punch, the left hook.

  • Alex may have more muscle in his upper body but his legs aren’t much.
  • If Mark De La Rosa can kick your leg, I think Formiga can do the same.

I know Alex beat Mark quite handily but if that same guy steps into the Octagon on Saturday night against Jussier Formiga, he’s probably going to lose.

Jussier will have the reach advantage and I think he slows Alex’s movement early with some low kicks, possibly to the calf.

I can’t mess with the round total. It is probably going to the judges’ scorecards but the value there is long gone.

We are getting Jussier Formiga here at underdog odds, albeit teacup-sized at (+110).

I think this is a striking battle and while that’s not his forte, it isn’t Alex’s either, and Formiga should have a speed advantage in the hands and legs.

I think he wins 6 out of 10 times these two fight.

His betting odds of (+110) denote a 47% implied probability to win and if we have him at 60%, a bet is warranted.

My Pick
Jussier Formiga

In Conclusion

Jussier Formiga…

Man, I really love saying that name.

Pretty cool if you ask me.

  • Black belt in Judo.
  • Black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu.
  • American Top Team trained for the past two years.

I know he is getting up there in age at 35. That is very old for a flyweight.

His last loss to Brandon Moreno was a very close fight and I have Moreno, while similarly styled as Perez, as the better fighter hands down.

Perez has been a pro for 9 years so I don’t expect him to be improving much but 29 is his prime.

This is a tough fight to call but I like the number we are getting with Formiga.

Don’t go big here with your bet. 1-2 units should suffice.

Mike Pruitt / Author

Mike has been covering sports professionally since 2017 but on the amateur scene for 25 years since when he was 12. Before the internet changed the world, he would keep detailed statistical box scores of NFL and NBA contests, write recaps, and voluntarily commentate games and fights alone in his room. Mike's military experience, Bachelors Degree, and employment thereafter were always rooted in engineering, science, and teaching. Now he enjoys being able to express himself through writing about football, golf, and car racing among other sports but most of all fighting as his life has been rooted in mixed martial arts including competing and teaching for the past 15 years.