UFC 250 is this Saturday night from the home of the UFC, Las Vegas, Nevada.
Here is a fight I really like!
I am leaning hard one way.
I have yet to look at the odds, though.
I wanted to do things a little bit differently this time around.
Picking fights is difficult but a lot of fun and, of course, rewarding as well.
We can go about a few different ways.
What we have been doing is looking at a fight card and at all of the different betting odds and then making a call from there what fighters’ betting lines have the best value.
I look at the actual betting odds then I make my own to see if we have the 5+ percent edge on the sportsbooks we are looking for.
It’s only natural to have a lean when you look at two fighters sometimes and that lean can influence the betting line I set.
If I am leaning toward Menifield already then I’m looking for something to prove me right, likely more than I am looking to be proven wrong.
"That's all it takes!" ?
— UFC (@ufc) June 1, 2020
Ideally, proper discipline could eliminate this from happening but we are humans and that’s not going to change anytime soon.
I don’t know, though, 2020 has been a real one.
If I just look at the matchup first without any betting odds, I can handicap the fight without any bias.
Then, hopefully, when I compare the numbers, we have several edges on the sportsbooks and we know where to attack.
It does take longer this way because we are watching tape and handicapping fights we may not even bet on but at the same time, knowledge and practice never hurt the process.
- Alonzo Menifield is undefeated and fighting out of a great camp in Dallas, Texas, Fortis MMA.
- He is 9-0 with 7 first-round finishes with 2 stoppages in the second round.
His opponent, Devin Clark, has more experience but will have a power disadvantage in the hands.
BetOnline.AG has the betting odds for this fight.
Let’s take a look at those and see how they matched up with our pre-capping betting lines.
Alonzo Menifield (-225) vs Devin Clark (+190)
Devin Clark has shown that he has some takedowns at his disposal but has failed to implement them to help him win fights.
Clark trains out of Albuquerque, New Mexico at the famed Jackson/Wink fight camp.
I would expect a solid game plan to win rounds focusing on the judges’ scorecards.
Look for Devin to throw side kicks to the knee and thigh of Menifield and spend plenty of time holding him against the cage.
That has been one of the biggest adjustments I’ve had to make because I’m a hardcore fan and very passionate about fighters’ will to finish the fight.
This is where I make a lot of enemies but there is a fight within the fight.
Some competitors go the smart route and I will never tell another man how to make money.
If Devin Clark walks into the Octagon on Saturday night with the game plan given to him by his coaches, he has a better chance to win than he does trading with someone like Alonzo Menifield.
Clark has definitely been in there with some of the division’s best fighters.
He has fought and lost to both Alexander Rakic and Jan Blachowicz.
When he is striking, Devin stands rather bladed with one foot in front of the other.
Standing sideways like can help your boxing defense at times but when there are 8 different limbs flying your way, you had better square up a little.
You are susceptible to round kicks to the leg, body, and head.
Personally, I would rather give up small shots to my midsection by standing more square than have to deal with hard round kicks when I’m already turned into them.
The outside leg kick will be there for Menifield who is more traditionally trained in Muay Thai by Saekson Janjira.
Yes, I know that Zo is still pretty green in his development but we are talking about one of the best Muay Thai coaches in the country.
I have made some good money picking fighters from this camp. It doesn’t always work out but they are well-coached by Sayif Saud.
I think sometimes he coaches his fighters to go out there, throw caution in the receptacle, and overwhelm their opponents with aggression.
Then, on the same night coaching another fighter, he leads them to a safe and sound point victory.
I’m very impressed with the guy.
I hate the Cowboys and vowed never to go to Dallas but I might have to get down there and learn a thing or two from Sayif.
When I capped this fight, my conclusion was that Menifield wins 8 out of the 10 times these two guys fight.
He is the more technical striker, the more powerful striker, and the more varied striker.
Devin Clark has a slow jab and a slow double leg.
I think he will be countered hard when he turns his body on his jab.
The question remains…
I think Alonzo will have to drastically improve his takedown defense if he wants to ever contend for the title at light heavyweight.
With that being said, I believe his defense will suffice for Saturday.
Devin Clark is not a strong grappler. He did get a win in his fight where he took his opponent to the ground but DeQuan Townsend is not a UFC caliber fighter.
Maybe he was just caught and didn’t have space but it wasn’t a good look for him.
This matchup could end inside the distance like every other Menifield fight or Clark could get behind his keg legs and push Menifield up against the fence for close to three rounds.
I don’t want to mess with the over/under odds.
The over 1.5 rounds is (-135), though. Wow, that is kind of tempting.
Menifield is (-225) to win and not far away at (-180) to win by TKO.
Devin Clark is a step up for him. I don’t think he is magically going to blow through the guy. If Devin were more willing to engage, he might get finished early.
I will take Menifield here. The over is still a lot of risk.
I almost said this was a heavyweight fight. Both guys are monsters but nope, just light heavy.
I am concerned with the weight cuts a little but these two were already scheduled to fight on the 2nd of May so we should be good.
He is, though, going to have to prove to us that he can successfully keep fights standing and possibly expand his game even more and take his opponents down.
We have seen that from him but not against strong competition.
He has actually never faced strong competition in his career.
I think he is more of an athlete, albeit not that explosive, than a martial artist at this point in his development.
I guess I never had that problem because I’ve been training 15 years and still waiting on that athlete thing to kick in.
Give me a guy who has speed, power, and a technical advantage and I would say take him down!
Clark is a strong guy and a JuCo All-American but that was at 185 pounds.
He looks like he cuts down from 230 to make the light heavyweight limit of 205 – so maybe he lost his speed when he gained all that muscle.
It happens. In fighting, sometimes it’s better to be a little wiry.
Get your bets in now, guys, and enjoy the fights!