UFC 250 Betting Pick: Cody Stamann vs Brian Kelleher

Brian Kelleher… My man! We hit an underdog play on Brian in his last fight just 3 weeks ago. (+175) was nice and I felt even better about the pick after some friends messaged me and said thanks for the pick.

We did get a little bit lucky but Brian’s opponent that night, Hunter Azure, was rather inexperienced with less than 10 fights. I did say that he had lazy boxing defense and Kelleher caught him with the left hook and put him away.

Do we ride with Kelleher again as a sizable underdog? He is even bigger this weekend with betting odds of (+225) at BetOnline.AG. There’s a reason for that, though.

Cody Stamann is an absolute bull. He has one of the very best double leg takedowns in the UFC. Hailing from Sparta, Michigan, it was only natural to adopt the moniker “Spartan”.

Built like a brick fit-house, Cody has a strength and explosiveness advantage over almost every opponent he will face. There is good reason he is 18-2 in his 9-year mixed martial arts career.

Brian Kelleher is not nearly as physically gifted as Stamman and it shows in his record of 21-10. The man is a gamer, though, and appears to have more power at 145.

It is important to note that these are two bantamweights that are fighting at featherweight probably just because of the short notice.

The UFC is already walking on eggshells to put these events on so they want fighters missing weight on top of that and it’s just the respectful thing to do for the athletes.

BetOnline.AG has the betting odds for this fight. Let’s get to our UFC betting predictions for Brian Kelleher vs Cody Stamman.

Cody Stamman (-252) vs Brian Kelleher (+212)

Round Total

OVER 2.5
-240
UNDER 2.5
+180

Brian Kelleher is a tough cookie who marches his opponents down, survives their striking attack, and eventually, he forces a shot from them.

When they shoot out of desperation and it is telegraphed, that’s when the wily vet takes advantage of a golden opportunity and snatches their neck for the guillotine win.

3 of his last 6 victories have come by way of horizontal hanging. You don’t want to miss one of his fights.

He is 5-3 in his UFC career and has been awarded either fight of the night or performance of the night bonuses in 4 of those contests.

Brian and his opponent have made it to the scorecards just once in those 8 fights. He beat former Bantamweight World Champion Renan Barao by unanimous decision just over 2 years ago. I mentioned it earlier but I really like his power at Featherweight.

There’s a chance he could rock Cody and change the contest but the guy has never been finished by strikes in 20 fights. I was just reading that Cody Stamman’s little brother passed away on May 27th.

He was just 18 and the cause of death has not been determined but from Cody’s statement, we can gather that athletics came so easy to him, he became bored and ended up going down the wrong path. It’s hard to believe that Cody is still fighting this weekend. This makes me want him to win quite badly.

Setting emotions aside for a second, I see Cody winning 7 out of 10 times versus Brian.

He takes down virtually everyone he fights and if nobody other than Aljamain Sterling has caught him with a submission, I don’t know if I can say Kelleher is likely to do that.

Will Cody be able to control his emotions on fight night? I hate to let this tragedy be a part of our pick. I don’t like Cody’s odds anyway. I think they are dead on without any knowledge of this tragedy so either way, we don’t have an edge on the books.

While I think there is value on the under 2.5 rounds and there’s a little bit on Kelleher now that Stamman’s emotional state is a question mark, I think Stamman by decision is a solid bet at just (-135) over at 5dimes.eu.

Kelleher will give his opponents opportunities to finish the fight in order for him to possibly come back. Many fighters will just hang on for a decision loss but Brian will keep fighting.

With that being said, I think because of Cody’s high emotions, he will go back to his base and that is controlling wrestling.

He will probably have an adrenaline dump after the first round but I still think he is strong enough to hold Kelleher in place for long enough to win the fight.

It’s not the most beautiful win for Cody but the Spartan gets one for his fallen brother.

My Pick
STAMMAN BY DECISION

In Conclusion

What a warrior or should I say Spartan, Cody Stamman is!

He said that his brother would have wanted him to go out there and compete and that’s just what he is going to do. I think we are naive to think that something so traumatic and recent as one week prior won’t have a negative effect on his performance.

For that reason, I can’t get behind the moneyline of (-240) which gives us an implied probability of over 70%. I think Cody is down at 60% for me now, unfortunately.

This does open the value door for a play on Brian Kelleher but I will stick with the much better athlete, wrestler, and younger man to get the W.

The 60% implied probability is still good enough to give us the edge we need for a bet at (-135). Maybe his emotions lead to him donkey konging Brian Kelleher’s head off the mat until the ref steps in.

He hasn’t done that yet in his UFC career and a strong BJJ guy off his back like Brian might neutralize some of the aggressive ground and pound efforts from Stamman.

If this story gets out, I could see some people fading Cody but I don’t think the betting line we like will move very far.

Bet now, though, and let’s pull for Cody on Saturday night!

Mike Pruitt / Author

Mike has been covering sports professionally since 2017 but on the amateur scene for 25 years since when he was 12. Before the internet changed the world, he would keep detailed statistical box scores of NFL and NBA contests, write recaps, and voluntarily commentate games and fights alone in his room. Mike's military experience, Bachelors Degree, and employment thereafter were always rooted in engineering, science, and teaching. Now he enjoys being able to express himself through writing about football, golf, and car racing among other sports but most of all fighting as his life has been rooted in mixed martial arts including competing and teaching for the past 15 years.