UFC 250 Betting Pick: Ian Heinisch vs Gerald Meerschaert

When I close my eyes and think about this fight, I see the grind.

Ian Heinisch is the epitome of a grinder.

Well, minus the wrestling game.

We have successfully faded Ian Heinisch in his last two fights.

I didn’t think he would have the wrestling defense to stop one of the most dominant double leg takedowns in MMA against Derek Brunson.

Derrick and his poor cardio gave us a slight sweat in the third round but the judges got that one right.

He fought Omari Akhmedov next and I thought the defense, powerful hands, and offensive wrestling would be too much for Ian.

It was.

Both of those guys that beat him have had repeated cardio issues. The UFC loves the guy’s story about him being a former inmate and turning his life around and all.

They thought he matched up decent with those guys because of his unwavering cardio and unrelenting style of fighting.

He just got out-skilled for two rounds each time and it didn’t matter what happened when his opponents got tired because he didn’t have the punching power to put them away.

Just because you can TKO someone with punches doesn’t mean you are powerful.

Think about the Diaz brothers. Ian has a similar style but lacks the BJJ acumen and boxing skills of the two.

None of these men have power, though. They will knock your butt out if you’re so tired your jaw starts to hang open.

Gerald Meerschaert is a big guy, a strong grappler, and very tough as well.

  • He doesn’t have the best striking skills but has been in there with some of the best and done fairly well.
  • His biggest win for the promotion came about a year ago against Trevin Giles.
  • His “best” losses were to Jack Hermansson and Thiago Santos.
  • His worst loss was to Eryk Anders.

How dare you, Gerald!

You let that no-skill football player bully you like that?

Let’s take a look at the betting odds for this one provided to us by the always awesome BetOnline.AG, and make our predictions for the matchup between Ian Heinisch and Gerald Meerschaert.

Ian Heinisch (-125) vs Gerald Meerschaert (+105)

Round Total

  • Over 2.5 (-185)
  • Under 2.5 (+155)
Fight Goes to a Decision

  • Yes (-150)
  • No (+110)

Who wins this fight?

I think Ian Heinish wins.

The next question is: If these two men fight ten times under the same set of circumstances, how many times does Ian get his hand raised?

I think 7 but I can confidently say 6 out of 10 times, Ian will beat Gerald Meerschaert.

That gives us almost a 5% edge as his betting odds of (-125) denote an implied probability of 55.6%.

That is enough to warrant a bet. Maybe not a 4 unit play, but 1-2 should suffice.

How much is a unit?
1 unit is 1% of your bankroll.

Say you start out with 10,000 in your bankroll for betting purposes only, you are going to want to keep your bets within the 100-400 dollar range.

That is, of course, 1-4 units.

As your bankroll increases over time, you still bet 1-4% of your bankroll but through compound interest, you make more and more money.

This requires a lot of patience, though, guys.

If you’re reading this to get some action on Saturday’s fights, I hope I can help you have a good time.

Just bet responsibly and you’re likely not to have a terrible night.

Hey, I get it.

Some of you are probably asking yourself: Who the heck are Ian Heinisch and Gerald Meerschaert?

Throw 5 or more dollars down and it might as well be your little brother in there getting his butt kicked.

Betting does make things exciting to you that may not have carried that weight before.

If you’re in this, though, to build your bankroll, eventually invest, and hopefully write your own check one day, then only put your money in strong positions and we can achieve this goal together.

Back to the fight.

How do I see this one playing out?

  • I believe Ian is the more effective striker and his defensive stats are better than Gerald’s.
  • Meerschaert has a 5-inch reach advantage and is two inches taller than his opponent.

That is a concern. It’s not that Ian minds walking through punches to land his own, it’s that Ian walks through punches and those punches will score.

If Ian wins the inside battle, then you have a close fight.

I think we do have a slight edge on Heinisch here and I would love to be able to predict this one but leave the ego be and look at the round total.

The over 2.5 is at (-185). That’s expensive.

We can get the fight goes to a decision UFC betting odds from 5dimes.eu.

A yes is saying (-150) which has an implied probability of 59%.

I think this fight goes to a decision 3 out of 4 times giving us more than enough of an edge to pull the trigger in this situation.

My Pick
Fight Goes to Decision!

In Conclusion

I am glad I stayed away from picking a winner between these two fighters.

My first instinct was Ian Heinisch and even after taping both guys, I like “The Hurricane” to get it done with pressure and punching.

The longer I looked at it, though, the more I realized that Gerald does present some length and size issues.

  • Gerald does have a lot of finishes and has been finished in the UFC but Ian has not.
  • These guys will trade punches and cage position constantly for 15 minutes.

That’s my forecast.

The wrestling ability and solid cardio of Ian Heinisch should keep him out of the submission realm of Meerschaert, and the toughness and size advantage Gerald holds should keep him standing for 15 minutes as well.

Bet first, bet fast, bet hard, bet last.

Mike Pruitt / Author

Mike has been covering sports professionally since 2017 but on the amateur scene for 25 years since when he was 12. Before the internet changed the world, he would keep detailed statistical box scores of NFL and NBA contests, write recaps, and voluntarily commentate games and fights alone in his room. Mike's military experience, Bachelors Degree, and employment thereafter were always rooted in engineering, science, and teaching. Now he enjoys being able to express himself through writing about football, golf, and car racing among other sports but most of all fighting as his life has been rooted in mixed martial arts including competing and teaching for the past 15 years.