UFC 250 Betting Pick: Sean O’Malley vs Eddie Wineland

I promise I will keep this one short, guys.

I have been on the Sugar Sean bandwagon for a while now. Anytime another curly-headed lanky guy can put on a display like that has my fandom signed sealed and delivered.

The young man is truly something special on his feet. He burst onto the scene very quickly but has remained grounded training all the time throughout Phoenix, Arizona, and, of course, at his home gym The Lab under head coach John Crouch.

The UFC truly believes they have a star on their hands with O’Malley so they have picked his opponents carefully up until this point.

His opponent Saturday night out of Houston, Texas, Eddie Wineland, is a veteran of 38 mixed martial arts competitions and has been fighting for the UFC for over 9 years.

Over close to a decade with the promotion, Eddie has amassed a record 6-7.

This, of course, isn’t good but he has been in there with the bantamweight division’s best including Urijah Faber, John Dodson, Joe Benevidez, and Renan Barao. His fight against Renan Barao was for the world title.

It’s going to be an uphill battle for Eddie Wineland this weekend but he can do it. This fight isn’t a complete lock, even though I may have said it before when justifying a parlay with O’Malley.

I think we got him for a parlay when his odds were down around (-400) I believe. He is now up to a 5 to 1 favorite with most sportsbooks.

BetOnline.AG has the betting odds for us today. Let’s outline Eddie Wineland’s path to victory and also the probability of Sean getting the finish in this one.

Sean O’Malley (-500) vs Eddie Wineland (+375)

Round Total

OVER 1.5
-155
UNDER 1.5
+125

I told you that the line has moved from (-400) to (-500) for Sugar Sean. The over 1.5 rounds has moved from an opening price of (-135) to (-155). I still think there could be some value there, on the over that is.

Eddie Wineland is as tough and durable as they come. He does have an aggressive style that could get him in trouble early on but he has only been stopped from strikes twice in the past 15 years.

Sean likes to get a little space to work his magic and with the UFC still using the 25-foot cage, he may have to step off his bike and fire some hard shots from time to time just to keep the wiley Wineland from cutting off the cage and threatening with the right hand.

If O’Malley was more of a pressure fighter, I would lean under. Wineland does fight with his hands down, man, whew. I can see Sugar kicking his head clean off.

Are we getting any love on an O’Malley finish? (-150) at 5dimes.eu. Not bad for a guy who won by TKO in the first round in his last fight.

I think the time off Sean took from his USADA suspension truly helped him grow up not only mentally but also physically. His flow and range are going to be better than 95% of the division but as a small framed guy, he was lacking some power.

From following some of his vlogs, it really appears that during his absence he has emphasized strength and power as well as his ever-evolving ground game.

I don’t think that over 1.5 is the way I want to go. It scares me and I think Sean finishing Eddie Wineland with strikes over 15 minutes is more likely than this over hitting.

We can get him by TKO instead but not much cheaper at (-130) so let’s stick with Sugar Sean and Eddie to put on a show and the near 36-year-old with nearly two decades of professional MMA miles on his body and brain, to give out before the final bell.

My Pick
O’Malley Wins Inside Distance

In Conclusion

Please be seated but hopefully not for long and welcome ladies and gentlemen to the Sugar Show!

Sean O’Malley probably isn’t going to reach the heights of fame of the Conor McGregor’s of the world but he is well onto his way to superstardom in the UFC.

The company is firmly behind him and he has had very favorable matchups since his signing. Saturday is no different.

Eddie Wineland is a savage, though. Sean is likely going to have to hit him with something other than his fists to get the knockout. He has those capabilities, though, and then some. With a wide array of kicks that come from any angle and can even switch directions.

The question mark kick is what Bruce Lee would call a progressive indirect attack. They think a body kick is coming up the middle and when they parry down, their head is left exposed and thwack.

Sugar shouldn’t even have to use tricks, though. I think a simple look down and kick up will work just fine.

Cheers to Sean O’Malley getting it done inside the distance!

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Mike Pruitt / Author

Mike has been covering sports professionally since 2017 but on the amateur scene for 25 years since when he was 12. Before the internet changed the world, he would keep detailed statistical box scores of NFL and NBA contests, write recaps, and voluntarily commentate games and fights alone in his room. Mike's military experience, Bachelors Degree, and employment thereafter were always rooted in engineering, science, and teaching. Now he enjoys being able to express himself through writing about football, golf, and car racing among other sports but most of all fighting as his life has been rooted in mixed martial arts including competing and teaching for the past 15 years.