UFC 255 Betting Picks: Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Alex Perez

UFC 255 is this Saturday and boy does it look to an exciting star-studded fight card. As for betting value, this is a tricky one. We have had a lot of favorite-winning cards lately but I see live dogs in probably 9 of the 12 fights on the entire card.

Where, though?

That’s where it gets really difficult for me. When I first checked out the card, I saw Brandon Roval and Ariane Lipski as very capable and bettable dogs but after listening to some colleagues throughout the week, I am questioning those picks.

Lipski isn’t exactly a takedown artist but hey, neither is Katlyn Chookagian and she had her way with Antonina Shevchenko. I’m a high on Brandon Moreno as anyone but I’m just as high on what I’ve seen with Royval.

At first glance, I also thought that Alex Perez might have a good chance to defeat Deiveson Figueiredo due to his wrestling capabilities. Then, I remember that Dieveson is at his peak right now and fighting better than ever.

So, we can’t exactly use fights from a couple of years back in which he struggled to accurately define who he is now. I believe it is all coming together for Figgy now and may look for a method of victory prop play on him in the main event.

The co-main features Valentina Shevchenko defending her world title against Jennifer Maia. The odds aren’t too bad, either.

Anyone want to wager 1700 bucks to make a bill?

I know they’re lining up…We have hit on Valentina within the distance method of victory props in her last two title defenses and while Jennifer Maia is durable and a black belt on the mat, we may have to go with Shev to finish.

Bellator was a huge success for us
It was also a bounce back from going 0-3 stretching out to tug on Underdog’s cape. 0 for anything is not okay.

That’s why I busted out the old Tarot deck and summoned the betting spirits from Vegas past and they gave me some solid ones for Bellator 253.

We hit on a 3-leg parlay anchored by the main event winner, AJ McKee who locked up a “Mckee-otine” and received the tap from Caldwell just seconds later. That was for (+126) and we also got McKee by finish for (+185).

I had written down submission for (+350) and then deleted it “before playing it safe” on the (+185). It is what it is. I’ll take it. Jason Jackson also came through for a (-175) play to defeat the out-sized and elder Benson Henderson.

This makes up for and adds a few bucks to your pocket for last week’s 0-for.

Back to the UFC.

There are seriously a lot of questions on this card. I wouldn’t bet too heavily. Throw .5 units on a dog and your best Dr Dre and let it ride.

BetOnline.AG has the odds for these picks unless otherwise noted.

Let’s get after it!

Deiveson Figueiredo by Submission: +500

This is about the number here. He is like a 2 to 1 favorite or something to get it done inside the distance and barely even money to get the TKO. He has submission wins in his last 2 of 3 fights.

Alex Perez appears to have good submission defense but so did Joe B Won Kinobi Benavidez and although he didn’t tap, still lost by “submission” by way of the mata leao.

Perez is going to be putting himself in the position for his neck to get wrapped up if Figgy can sprawl and take the back, the lion kill will likely present itself once again.

Pick: Deiveson Figueiredo

Valentina Shevchenko by submission: +500

Again, we are betting the number here. We could get her by TKO but for (-115), why?

She is a 2 to 1 favorite to get the finish and that doesn’t interest me. If we can hit on either her or Figgy with a method of victory, we will be looking good.

Other than that, the betting odds are juiced.

Pick: Shevchenko by submission

Calvillo by decision: -110

Cynthia does go after the finish but Katlyn, win or loss, is primarily a decision machine. Valentina put her away but that’s the champ. Calvillo loves to take the back and get the sub but this one may play out on the feet most of the time.

Some are giving Katlyn the advantage there but I’m not buying it. Calvillo is relentless with her takedown attempts and she may have a hard time getting Chook to the mat. If so, then there will probably be a lot of clinch time.

This adds to the likelihood of a decision, of course.

Even if Cynthia gets to the back of Chookagian, she may have a harder than normal time trying to get the forearm securely under the chin.

Katlyn trains with the Danaher Death Squad and John has an entire system just on rear naked attacks. I think she is pretty well versed in Jiu Jitsu and probably won’t give her back and if she does, the finish shouldn’t come easy for Cyn.

Katlyn loves to kick to keep the range because punching air isn’t effective against everyone and that plays directly into the kick-catchingest girl since Jojo Calderwood Wood.

Pick: Calvillo by decision

Brandon Royval: +165

I’m going with the instinct here. I have heard a million reasons why Brandon Royval is overrated and I bought that bs and thought Kara France would edge a decision. Stupid!

Raw Dawg Royval is special and his opponent, Brandon Moreno, is used to being the bigger fighter. He came down to ‘25 from Bantamweight standing tall at 5’7” but the other Brandon is 5’9” with more reach.

I love Moreno and this isn’t a fade on him. I actually edge Royval as a slight favorite and at (+165), I’ll take him. We could be wrong but at the worst, this should be a close fight.

Pick: Royval

Dustin Stotzfus: +260

Again, the number! Both Dustin and his opponent at UFC 255, Kyle Daukaus, are very solid prospects who could be top ten fighters if not better in the near future.

I can get behind Kyle at (-140) or so but this is ridiculous.

  • Stoltzfus is a strong wrestler.
  • Is extremely confident.
  • Is highly intelligent.

Kyle Daukaus is longer and may have a BJJ edge but if Dustin can get past the initial darce or guillotine attempt from the Philly fighter, he is very strong and may be able to keep the fight on the mat for a bit.

The fact that Kyle goes for the anacondas and darces, tells us that he may not try too awfully hard to keep this fight standing. Stoltzfus could surprise a lot of people this weekend.

Either way, this, along with the Brandon vs Brandon war, could be the fight of the night.

Pick: Stoltzfus

Jordan Wright: +206

Size matters, y’all.

If and that is a big IF, Jordan The Beverly Hills Ninja Wright can take a couple of shots from Joaquin Buckley, I think this is his fight to win or lose.

Wright is much more skilled than Buckley and keeps his range very well.

With that being said, Joaquin will close the distance and look to unload bombs. One thing people are ignoring here is the fact that Jordan is a natural 205er who just fought a heavyweight and Buckley, while loaded with muscle mass, has a much smaller frame.

  • The undefeated Wright will have a 4-inch height advantage on his foe but only 1 in the reach department. I think Jordan can possibly get this fight to the mat as well.
  • Buckley is a beast but let’s not get too caught up in his jump spinning back kick to the face knockout form last month.

If he had not have pulled that off, where would this betting line be?

Ask yourself that.

I like Jordan here as an underdog in what could be a 50/50 fight, that is as long as he doesn’t physically or mentally crumble when Buckley catches him clean.

Pick: Wright

Place Your Bets Now!

In Conclusion

I’m pulling off of the Lipski pick. She has only attempted one takedown in her UFC and even though she landed it, it doesn’t give us very much confidence that she will even try this time around.

She likes to strike and she is going to get exactly that from Antonina Shevchenko. Nina has major holes in her game, though, which include both takedown defense and defending position from the bottom.

Roxy and Chookagian were able to do it.

One is well versed in Judo and the other is Katlyn Chookagian, a woman who primarily punches air en route to decision wins. I think Ariane will find a way to win but not confident she will follow my game plan.

Jordan Wright was my last underdog pick for a reason. I do like Royval and even the larger lined Stoltzfus better than Jordan but I believe all three are worth a shot.

Hopefully, we can go into the co and main events well ahead and not need either of the (+500) method of victory plays to get back in the green.

Get your plays in now and enjoy what is a perplexing and hopefully surprising UFC 255.

Mike Pruitt / Author

Mike has been covering sports professionally since 2017 but on the amateur scene for 25 years since when he was 12. Before the internet changed the world, he would keep detailed statistical box scores of NFL and NBA contests, write recaps, and voluntarily commentate games and fights alone in his room. Mike's military experience, Bachelors Degree, and employment thereafter were always rooted in engineering, science, and teaching. Now he enjoys being able to express himself through writing about football, golf, and car racing among other sports but most of all fighting as his life has been rooted in mixed martial arts including competing and teaching for the past 15 years.