UFC 256 Betting Pick: Deiveson Figueiredo vs Brandon Moreno

The main event!

These two little savages fought only 3 weeks ago on the same card. Both won their fights without much damage and after they were each cleared by the Nevada State Athletic Commission, the fight was set.

I love how the UFC breaks the rules! Maybe it’s because I’ve been that way my whole life and I think it’s the best way to do business. I know that’s a part of it but where would the UFC be if they hadn’t been breaking rules from the very start.

We are all familiar with what a fight is. We have all been in a fight at least once in our lives even if we were just youths. Why did the UFC just come along less than 30 years ago and about 15 years ago, reinvent itself to the global powerhouse it is today?

Fighting is pretty popular and as Dana White has always stated-it’s in our DNA. So, why haven’t we had a UFC around for the past 100 or even 1000 years? Good question but a big part is that people hate the truth.

Did I say that? That’s another conversation for another day but breaking the rules is what allowed the UFC to stay afloat when the water was calm and when that wave came…Whew, it’s been a heck of a ride!

Now, we have a main event of Deiveson Figueredo vs Brandon Moreno.

The latter will be the first Mexican-born mixed martial artist to fight for a UFC title in history. I think that is pretty rad but he will be doing so as a (+260) underdog.

BetOnline.AG has the odds for us this week.

Let’s take a look at those and make our predictions for the main event of 256, a world title fight for the Flyweight between the champion, Deiveson Figueiredo, and challenger, Brandon Moreno.

Deiveson Figueiredo (-310) vs Brandon Moreno (+260)

Okay, this line is too wide and I am not betting against Figueiredo. I love Moreno and I thought he looked tremendous a few weeks ago against the dangerous and surging Brandon Royval but Figs is just on another level right now.

I don’t think the Brazilian will be able to put him away early on. It can definitely happen but Moreno has very good striking defense of 63% to go along with a 2 inch height and reach advantage.

Moreno is also the younger man and not a small Flyweight who could compete at 115 if they had a weight class. Moreno fought at 135 pounds for the majority of his professional career. In fact, he has never lost at 125.

So, bet on him at (+260)?

Not so fast. I love the Assassin Baby but instead of taking these plusses for him and making him the favorite, maybe it’s a sign, rather, pointing towards this fight lasting longer than 2 or 3 rounds.

He has only been finished one time and that was officially an exhibition fight on The Ultimate Fighter reality show. He lost by RNC to Alexandre Pantoja, one of the best fighters in the Bantamweight Division.

That’s it, though, and I know Deiveson is a finisher but I will take Brandon Brown as my Google likes to call him to make it to the judges’ scorecards.

I realize that is a stretch but we can get the champ by decision for (+510).

It’s just a flyer and if it doesn’t hit, the main event isn’t completely ruined. I believe we will be far enough ahead by the main event that this will either be a cherry or no cherry but still a delicious pint of ice cream.

My Pick
Figueiredo Wins by Decision!

In Conclusion

Iiiittt’s almost tiiime for the main event of the evening!

Does the Assassin Baby have a chance against the seemingly unbeatable lately, Deiveson Figueiredo? I think he has a decent chance, yes, but that decent chance may play out to be him winning one or two rounds out of 5.

I don’t think we are looking at the champ coming out here and one and done’ing the Mexican born challenger. How many boxing fights have you guys watched in your life?

You do remember that Mexican fighters are notoriously difficult to finish. If Figgy does get the TKO that starts from the striking realm on the feet, I believe it will be from a body shot. I’ve said this twice already but I do have a lot of love for Moreno but he looks soft in the gut.

If you compare him to the champ, he has a beer belly. I don’t question his discipline in training but he seems like the kind of dad who sneaks some of the kids sweets in from time to time.

He isn’t shredded and when you’re opponent is, you’re giving up strength and in the case of Moreno’s win over Royval, durability as well. I think Royval poses a lot of problems for guys at 125 but he would most likely be better suited at Bantamweight.

Let’s hope Figgy headhunts his way to a decision victory. It’s not likely but we only need to give this particular method of victory a 25% chance of happening to make a play here.

(+510) denotes an implied probability of less than 17%. If we can say the champ wins a decision 25% of the time, then we should make money in the long term on plays like this one.

Mike Pruitt / Author

Mike has been covering sports professionally since 2017 but on the amateur scene for 25 years since when he was 12. Before the internet changed the world, he would keep detailed statistical box scores of NFL and NBA contests, write recaps, and voluntarily commentate games and fights alone in his room. Mike's military experience, Bachelors Degree, and employment thereafter were always rooted in engineering, science, and teaching. Now he enjoys being able to express himself through writing about football, golf, and car racing among other sports but most of all fighting as his life has been rooted in mixed martial arts including competing and teaching for the past 15 years.