UFC 258 Betting Pick: Miranda Maverick vs Gillian Robertson

I am really happy to see Gillian Robertson getting right back inside the Octagon after such a crushing defeat being outclassed by Taila Santos just weeks ago. I feel like I am pretty familiar with the feeling of getting beat at my own game. Not because it happened a lot but more so because of how much it hurt my poor not so wittle ego.

It sucks!

I take pride in what I do best and if someone outdoes me at that skill, it hurts but the important thing is to learn from it. I don’t know how much learning Gillian Robertson can do now, though.

She hasn’t really ever gotten to the point where she is comfortable on her feet in the striking realm. If she could get there and possibly threaten her opponents with strikes, then the takedowns are going to come that much easier.

The word is out on Gillian Robertson.

When fighters see that red hair, they already know the exact game plan they are up against. Sometimes, this works out well for Gillian because she is above average at what she does best.

The problem is that most people are good at what they do best and this is becoming increasingly more true in the women’s divisions as more and more females get involved with the sport and they begin to catch up with the men.

Robertson’s opponent on Saturday night in Las Vegas at UFC 258 will be Miranda Maverick and yes, that is her last name.

The Missouri-born Maverick is just 23 and a half years old right now and her ceiling is up there.

Hey, the Super Bowl is behind us and that means we have to start talking about the draft and use the word “ceiling” more than you will for the rest of the year.

Miranda Maverick grew up in Missouri outside of Kansas City, the home of Invicta FC, the largest female mixed martial arts organization in the world now owned by the UFC. This is important because it appears that she was being groomed for MMA stardom since she was a child.

She has quite the history for it as well. She grew up on a farm like Matt Hughes and is already known for her strength at the age of 23. Miranda began training in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu at the age of 16 and after wrestling for one year in high school, she was already a standout in the gym.

She joined up with Invicta after a short 1-year with 7 wins and 1 loss amateur career. At the age of just 20, she got her first loss as a professional and dropped another fight a year later to Deanna Bennett, a loss she would later avenge.

Maverick is 8-2 now and Gillian has dropped down to 9-5. Both women are very young and each has a high ceiling, albeit one noticeably higher than the other.

Who is the imposter?

BetOnline.AG has the betting odds for this fight and many others. Let’s take a look at these lines and make a strong play on the winner or possibly an over/under round total.

Miranda Maverick (-140) vs Gillian Robertson (+120)

The oddsmakers have this one pretty close. Why? Do they think Gillian can but probably won’t be able to get this fight to the mat with regularity?

They have her at (+120) and those betting odds denote an implied probability of 45%. If we think Gil is a coin flip or better to win this fight, then she is our play.

I’ll let you in on a little secret if you haven’t picked up on it already.
I don’t think Robertson has better than a 50% chance to win this fight. I actually put her betting line at (+150). I think this one is 60/40 to MM at the very least. She is a better athlete, the far better striker, more powerful, more physical, faster than her opponent overall.

Gillian Robertson is a specialist and she has given us zero reason to believe that she has evolved from her original mold. Miranda Maverick is…what?

She is a good wrestler who not only defends takedowns well but also imposes her will on her opponents by taking them down and controlling from the top.

That is how Gillian Robertson lost her last fight. She got taken down and controlled. Can Miranda Maverick do that to her?

I think it is possible.

She has done it to other female fighters, just not in the UFC.

Maverick is better than Gillian everywhere this fight goes except from bottom position with the top-heavy Robertson smeshing her. Even if the fight goes there, I feel confident that Miranda can work her way back to her feet. Now, will she give her back to do so? I hope not.

We are getting a fighter who is better everywhere for (-140). I think that is a great deal. As I said, this one should be up at (-200) for Mav. She has several paths to victory while Gillian has one.

Mav inside the distance is (+380). The sportsbooks are giving this fight about a 60% chance to go the distance and we think we have a great read on the potential winner so a method of victory prop could be in the works.

I feel like Gillian Robertson’s stand up game is on par with that of Liana Jojua and did you guys catch what Miranda Maverick was able to do to her in just a few minutes of striking?

Just look at her move out there. She is a very well rounded MMA fighter and going up against a specialist who has trouble with physical killers like herself, I think Miranda Maverick has to be highly confident going into this matchup.

Also, her head coaches have only had to prepare for one thing, takedowns and top pressure with a little bit of rear naked choke defense sprinkled on top.

Gillian’s coaches…Wait, she left American Top Team so she only has one coach right now, Din Thomas, and he was away from her for weeks on Fight Island while she was back in Florida. I listened to an interview from her today and her camp is more or less a self-admitted hot mess.

She seemed quite “que sera sera” about it but I know she is concerned. This is the last fight on her contract and the UFC is giving her a killer because they think she will lose and then have far less leverage at the negotiation table.

This one has Miranda Maverick TKO written all over it. Maycee Barber did it and I rate Miranda higher than her.

I will not force the issue here with a method of victory although I don’t see Gillian lasting 15 minutes on the feet with this House of Muay Thai-trained killer. I know those guys and have spent time training there with said fighter.

She is legit and as long as she doesn’t get taken down several times by Robertson, this is Miranda Maverick’s fight all day.

My Pick

In Conclusion

If you haven’t read any of my previews on Gillian Robertson before then you would be surprised to know that I am a huge fan of her.

There is something about that red hair.

I normally go for the natural look all around but the red hair is hot.

I don’t know why. I also made some money on Gil there for a couple of fights in a row but I stayed on the caboose for one fight too long and got to witness her freezing and quickly folding up against the cage when Maycee Barber completely let her hands and elbows go.

No hard feelings, though. So few hard feelings that I picked her to beat Taila Santos and that went absolutely not according to plan.

Please Note:
We are 1-0, though, with Miranda Maverick. I think taking her to win by stoppage was (-125) and the under 2.5 was (-120) when she fought Liana Jojua in her Octagon debut. We took the under and Miranda delivered by putting on a clinic for the young Georgian star.

I know Liana learned a lot from that fight to her credit, she didn’t want the fight stopped in between the first and second rounds but her nose was split badly and things were not looking up from there.

I think she said that Dana White was very sweet and consoled her. She got 6 stitches. I fade Jojua harder than just about anyone in the UFC not named Justin Jaynes but I feel bad for her. She wasn’t ready for the UFC but she gets in there and goes hard regardless.

Maverick is a tough matchup for anyone including Gillian Robertson and has the opportunity to be a world champion one day.

Mike Pruitt / Author

Mike has been covering sports professionally since 2017 but on the amateur scene for 25 years since when he was 12. Before the internet changed the world, he would keep detailed statistical box scores of NFL and NBA contests, write recaps, and voluntarily commentate games and fights alone in his room. Mike's military experience, Bachelors Degree, and employment thereafter were always rooted in engineering, science, and teaching. Now he enjoys being able to express himself through writing about football, golf, and car racing among other sports but most of all fighting as his life has been rooted in mixed martial arts including competing and teaching for the past 15 years.

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