UFC 259 Best Bets – March 6

It’s now pay per view fight week once again. We had a pretty short break after the Kamaru Usman vs Gilbert Burns headliner and there are currently 15 fights scheduled for Saturday night!

I think it is rather safe to assume that we will be losing at least one or two scraps to the COV or just because as the UFC has been doing lately. They always seem to be in pretty solid betting spots too.

I’m not the only one out here saying this either but life is about opportunity and it’s difficult to seize an opportunity if you’re living in the past or in the future. Right now, we have 15 different sets of opportunities of the betting kind that is at this weekend’s UFC 259.

There are 4 current world champions on the card fighting for 3 belts. Israel Adesanya and Jan Blachowicz, both world champions, will headline the event. Jan is the man at 205 pounds now that Jon Jones has made the move up to heavyweight.

Israel Adesanya, the undefeated betting favorite isn’t giving the Pole too much time with the belt as he is making his move early in 2021 in a bid to be the double champ. He has expressed interest in becoming the heavyweight world champion as well.

I think he can do it too. Rumble, young man.

In the co-main event, we have a fight that is devoid of betting value. I have to be transparent here or you would certainly think I’m full of it. Amanda The Lioness Nunes will be defending her Featherweight World Title against Australia’s Megan Anderson.Megan has great size for the weight class and good striking but her defensive wrestling has been poor for her entire run with the UFC.

We saw how Amanda chose to deal with Germaine de Randamie. Takedown after takedown…

We are in for much of the same on Saturday. Maybe some more valuable betting props will be released later in the week but for now, the GOAT is a 12-1 favorite.

What are you gonna do?

In the co-co-main event, Aljamain Sterling challenges Petr Yan who, like the UFC’s Light Heavyweight Champion Jan Blachowicz, will be defending his world title for the first time.

Petr is the man right now at 135 but his route to the world title was beating a guy who currently had a Bantamweight record of 0-1. Sterling, clearly not pleased with the situation, spoke out on numerous occasions but his cries fell on the deaf ears of Dana White.

Aljo has a UFC Bantamweight record of 11-3 including his last 5. The man has a gripe but the time for that is over.

He has to prove it now.

The rest of the card is one of if not the best on paper that I have ever seen!

On the EARLY prelims, we have 3 one-loss fighters and 3 undefeated fighters competing. The matchups are good too but I tell you, I especially like a lot of these betting opportunities.

BetOnline.AG has been so kind to provide the odds for us today.

Let’s get to some of UFC 259’s best bets.

Amanda Lemos: -209

209? I mean, come on. How can you not bet this number? Shout out to the Diaz Brothers for always keeping it real. We talked about Amanda last week when her betting odds were much more affordable at (-150).

I thought she was an incredible bet at that price and apparently others did as well. I still like her where she is now. She is going to have an athleticism advantage over Livinha Souza. The paths to victory for Amanda are to win on points by out striking her countrywoman, take down and control or sub, and also cracking her on the feet with something and following up.

Please Note;
While both women are quite powerful and capable on the mat, the most likely scenarios are A and B which both involve Amanda winning a decision. I just believe that Amanda can match Livinha’s power, is more athletic, and could also be the stronger woman.

Lemos used to fight at 135 pounds and that is where the only loss on her record came from when she gassed from too much muscle on her frame and was beat up on the feet by Leslie Smith.

Livinha Souza really knows how to fight an ugly fight. She is tough, strong, and fearless inside of the Octagon and against most women, that is enough. Amanda is on at least one level higher in my opinion and I believe that will show at UFC 259 on Saturday night.

My Pick
Lemos

Israel Adesanya: -230

How can you not take this value here? The man is undefeated and has been smoking people with length, skill, and speed. These are three major advantages over his opponent on Saturday night, Jan Blachowicz.

They will be in the small Octagon which I think could benefit Jan is he is aggressive enough but as I’m saying this, I am picturing him in my head closing the distance too quickly and eating shots.

Adesanya does fight with his hands down and you know how the old saying goes…Hand down, man down. Izzy isn’t Luke Rockhold, I know, but Jan Blachowicz most certainly has the power to shut off anyone’s lights in the world.

(-230)…Why (-230) BetOnline?

This line opened at (-250) which is certainly affordable for those with deep pockets. So, why hasn’t it moved that way?

New weight class.

Is he going to be slow?

These are the normal concerns but he has come out and said that he isn’t putting on any weight for this fight. He is just going to cut a couple of pounds, if that.

The power boost Izzy is going to get from not nearly killing himself just a day or so before the fight is going to be felt by Blachowicz. Izzy isn’t putting on size so he will be just as fast if not faster.

His durability along with his conditioning should get a few more points as well.

My Pick
Adesanya

Parlay Adesanya and Makhachev: -115

Here is your spot, guys. I would go hard here. Izzy is undefeated and Islam Makhachev is 18-1. Granted, that one loss was a first round KO from a quick puncher much like Drew Dober.

Drew’s takedown defense has improved but hey, so did Conor’s. So did everyones but the Dagestani handcuff is a real thing and the Russian coast is too. Looking at the stats for this fight, I see where Islam has a 68% takedown accuracy rate. That is off the charts, people.

Khabib’s isn’t even that good. Oh, well maybe he doesn’t attempt very many…wrong!

He attempts 5 per 15 minutes and lands 3 of them. That’s all you need when you have the Dagestani handcuff. How about Drew’s defense? Well, just looking at the guy, you know he has a great center of gravity and is an incredible athlete and scrambler.

I can’t get past the numbers, though, and even the eye test as well. Alexander Hernandez was able to get in on his legs and get him down. He couldn’t keep him there and Drew eventually got up and got the TKO.

We just saw Hernandez struggle mightily trying to get Thiago Moises down or at least into a clinch and control him. You get the point. If the overrated Hernandez can get Dober down, then surely Mr. 68% Dagestani phenom can.

And we already talked about Izzy. I like this play a lot, guys. Usually to get a parlay this strong, you have to be on multiple events but UFC 259 as we said, isn’t playing around.

What a fight card!

My Pick
Parlay Adesanya and Makhachev

In Conclusion

Right now, these are my three best bets for Saturday night’s UFC 259 from Las Vegas, Nevada. I love the parlay the most and I would say, if you want to add onto it, use Islam as your anchor. I think the possibility of Izzy getting knocked out is actually higher than that of Makhachev.

Please Note:
I say this because the vast majority if not all of Adesanya’s fight will play out in a striking match on the feet with one of the hardest hitters in the division. I love Jan’s timing and patience as well. Not enough, though, to where I want to bet on him even as an underdog. Not against The Last Style Bender! Israel Adesanya has proven to be one of the top pound for pound fighters in the sport and on Saturday, he makes the first step towards being the UFC’s first triple champ. You gotta love his confidence and enthusiasm for the game. He seems like such a fan of his peers and his curiosity never stops.

Islam Makhachev is my dark horse to be the UFC Lightweight World Champion by the end of the year. It probably won’t happen, though. The division is so popular now, the champ will probably fight twice a year at the max.

Islam is coming, though. 68% takedown accuracy landing nearly 3.5 per 15 minutes!

Lastly, Amanda Lemos is a fighter I researched and back in her last win and I was delighted to see her name come up again in a fight opposite fellow Brazilian Livinha Souza. The Brazilian Gangsta is as tough as they come but I believe she will be outmatched technically at UFC 259.

Get your bets in pronto, guys, and enjoy one of the best UFCs on paper we have ever had.

Mike Pruitt / Author

Mike has been covering sports professionally since 2017 but on the amateur scene for 25 years since when he was 12. Before the internet changed the world, he would keep detailed statistical box scores of NFL and NBA contests, write recaps, and voluntarily commentate games and fights alone in his room. Mike's military experience, Bachelors Degree, and employment thereafter were always rooted in engineering, science, and teaching. Now he enjoys being able to express himself through writing about football, golf, and car racing among other sports but most of all fighting as his life has been rooted in mixed martial arts including competing and teaching for the past 15 years.