UFC 260 Betting Pick: Sean O’Malley vs Thomas Almeida

Hey everyone, it’s the Sugar Show…

See, nobody cares. This guy really plummeted his stock when he refused to accept the fact that he lost his last fight to Marlon Chito Vera. I get it at first because the kid was undefeated and he thought he was that much better than his opponent.

Chito Vera ain’t no joke, though. He is a hype train derailing specialist if I’ve ever seen one. Gritty, determined, durable, and he presses forward for the entire fight. I think going into that fight, O’Malley saw Chito as this awkward guy with a gnarly beard and figured his technical prowess would reign supreme.

The calf kicks, though! They can be a fighter and bettors worst nightmare! Chito is a specialist and Salty Sean is a tall standing duck or maybe more like a flamingo.

Those little chicken legs are practical for fast kicks but what happens when they get hit with the ax?

This will be Sean’s first fight back in the UFC since the loss to Vera and that wasn’t the only fight where he got hurt to his wittle ankles. The Thai Andre Soukhamthath had him beat if he would have just made the clown stand up but Andre stole said clown status and took the fight to the ground.

He was down 2-0 on the scorecards in the 3rd so Andre needed the finish and he had it! Ugh, this goes to show how important fight IQ is when predicting these tings. Poor Andre just doesn’t have it.

Sean’s opponent on Saturday night at UFC 260, Thomas Almeida, was once as promising a star in the UFC as O’Malley has ever been. Thomas is a hands up, shell, move forward, and from there, it is technical brawling.

He is similar to Vicente Luque but far far less durable.

That has been Thomas’s Achilles heel in his career. He can’t take a shot.

And his style makes it worse because with the shell defense, you can get away with it in boxing because the gloves are big enough to cover most of your dome. In mixed martial arts, though…not so much.

Please Note:
I don’t like when fighters use this defense because they are sitting ducks. They don’t really have a choice whether or not to evade a high kick. They usually just take it off the arms and many times, the shin or instep wraps around to the back of the head. My Thai coach Master Nop would use me to demonstrate a technique and we were just drilling the high kicks and I knew he was going to try and wrap around to touch the soft tissue in the back of my head. I knew. Every time, I knew what he was going to do and I would put my best arm helmet on but every time, it would sneak through and touch me. The Thais are so good…

I can see the same thing happening in this fight because Almeida is a gamer but he is very plodding and with that hands up shell style, he is more than likely going to get picked apart by O’Malley.

There are betting odds out for this fight and they aren’t the most attractive but all books have covers and pages. We can find some value but we just have to look.

BetOnline.AG has the betting odds for the fight between Sean O’Malley and Thomas Almeida. Let’s get to our prediction.

Sean O’Malley (-320) vs Thomas Almeida (+270)

Salty Sean is once again a heavy favorite but Thomas Almeida is not Chito Vera. The Brazilian, Almeida, is not a durable fighter and I feel like there is at least a 66% chance that Sean O’Malley knocks him out or at least gets the TKO.

66% is (-200). So, where are the knockout betting odds because I am not laying (-320) on this clown. I will, though, bet him to win by knockout for any kind of plus money.

He’s where?

(+150)? For a TKO? Om, sign me up. I’m down, Charlie Brown. The books are saying there is a 40% chance that Sean O’Malley knocks out Thomas Almeida and we are giving him 2 out of 3. That is a massive massive difference in the implied probabilities here and for that, I say we have to make a play.

I understand if you don’t want to risk your money on a guy like O’Malley. I personally don’t even risk brain cells listening to the guy talk. The only thing worse is when his yes man, ehem, I mean coach Tim gets on the mic and agrees with everything Sean says.

The two seem to have a great relationship as best friends but Tim made a mistake allowing Sean to continue with the narrative that Vera got lucky and that he really didn’t lose to Chito. He just got hurt.

Cool story bro. It doesn’t matter how many times you tell it. The truth remains the same. Chito kicked you in your leg creating enough damage to inhibit your movement and performance. This led to you falling down on your own and thus getting suuhmeshed to the mat for a quick TKO.

Maybe the dude has grown up a bit from this and he still doesn’t have the heart to come and out and say that Chito was the better man. I tell you one thing-Sean has turned down the idea of a rematch several times.

Hmm…I wonder why.

You would think that he would want to prove everyone including Marlon wrong but I guess not. Chito almost beat Jose Aldo in his last fight. The legendary Brazilian striker had to resort to a takedown and lay and pray in the third round to get the win over Chito.

Sean lost to a really good fighter.

I hope the kid grows up soon because he sure as heck has the talents to go all the way to the top. Will his poultry stilts withstand all the thrashings? Imagine Pedro Munhoz chopping those calves.

Again, I hope the guy is growing up. Having a kid usually helps with that.

There’s daddy! I hope he’s not too high.

Guys, the kid has talent but he may be extending that frame a little too far at Bantamweight. I would like to see Sean compete at 145. He already has impeccable timing so the power will still be there for him.

That, like O’Malley’s truth to himself, is neither here nor there.

I love the Sugar Show by TKO!

The Bets
O’Malley by TKO

In Conclusion

Sean O’Malley burst onto the scene in the UFC a few years ago and has received an astronomical amount of media attention for a fighter who really hasn’t beaten anybody yet.

He more or less has zero wins versus UFC level competition. His one punch knockout over Eddie Wineland was his best win but Eddie has long been on the decline in his career.

I don’t think. I know the UFC is giving him Almeida because he is a perfect stylistic matchup for him.

Please Note:
Thomas is not likely to try and get the fight to the mat, although he may but we aren’t going off of what we think may happen, especially for the first time. Almeida will walk forward with his hands high and O’Malley will dance circles around him until he finds an opening, likely a head kick that drops the glass jawed Brazilian and from there, I see the clown cracking him a few more times.

Then, we cash our bet!

Get it in now, guys, because I think this betting line will be on the move!

Mike Pruitt / Author

Mike has been covering sports professionally since 2017 but on the amateur scene for 25 years since when he was 12. Before the internet changed the world, he would keep detailed statistical box scores of NFL and NBA contests, write recaps, and voluntarily commentate games and fights alone in his room. Mike's military experience, Bachelors Degree, and employment thereafter were always rooted in engineering, science, and teaching. Now he enjoys being able to express himself through writing about football, golf, and car racing among other sports but most of all fighting as his life has been rooted in mixed martial arts including competing and teaching for the past 15 years.