UFC 260 Betting Pick: Tyron Woodley vs Vicente Luque

UFC 260 is this weekend from the desert in Las Vegas, NV. The company is set to put on their first event since the lockdown that will have fans in less than a month. I believe Jacksonville, FL is the landing spot for that show, UFC 261.

But first, we have to decide the UFC world heavyweight title in Vegas this week. Stipe Miocic defends his strap against Francis Ngannou again. The first fight didn’t really go the way of the Cameroonian star.

The second fight could play out quite differently, though. Francis was much more green in the martial arts at that point and since then, he has been on a tear through the division.

Before we see the main event, the rest of the fight card is eh, alright. Tyron Woodley tries once more to get out of his own head and let his hands go.

The one good thing for Woodley is that he is going to have to throw against Luque.

The Brazilian is old school and loves to press the action and trade. He almost always wins these exchanges but if there is one thing you still have to worry about when fighting Tyron Woodley and that’s his power.

These two actually match up very well. You wouldn’t be able to tell from the betting odds that are so kindly brought to us today by the good folks over at BetOnline.

Let’s take a look at the line and see if there is any value to make a strong play.

Vicente Luque (-240) vs Tyron Woodley (+205)

Wow, I mean, I get it. Woodley appears to be done and a bet on him at this point is you just hoping that he changes. How’s that working out with relationships for ya?

Still, hoping he or she will change? Hey, we have all been there but let’s focus on the task at hand. Tyron Woodley does actually have more than one path to victory in this bout but we judge these fighters on their recent performances more than anything and he just hasn’t been there mentally.

Tyron clams up until a Gorilla like Darren Till comes in standing tall and he sleeps them! Could he do the same thing to Vicente Luque on Saturday night? Yes, for sure but I could win the lottery today as well. That doesn’t mean I’m getting double guac at Chipotle all week either.

Let’s go with the favorite here. You have to. Do you have to play that expensive moneyline, though, if you want to risk your money on Luque? No way.

There are other options for us. Let’s explore. The over 2.5 rounds is (-160). I know that people think Woodley will eventually fall to the pressure of the Brazilian or perhaps from one of his calf kicks but I see Luque playing his game and landing enough volume to win a decision.

Playing the over, though, doesn’t cover us on Tyron who is highly unlikely to win on the judges’ scorecards so it is kind of a waste. If you’re going with the fight making it to the cards then let’s play Luque by decision.

He has some solid value there too at (+160)!

The Bets
Luque by Decision

In Conclusion

Tyron Woodley is done, man. Or is he? I remember all my casual friends telling me Gilbert Burns was going to smoke him and I came back with my “expertise” and told them that Woodley is a former champ and he’s so dangerous…

I ate those words 3 meals a day for a couple of weeks. I’m sure it will happen again but I felt pretty stupid and arrogant after that. That is what keeps us hungry, though, and improving.

Vicente Luque is a killer but his weakness is that he is quite hittable standing in front of his opponents and moving forward on a straight line.

Those are just the type of fighters Tyron Woodley loves to exploit but again, we would have to go against, directly against the reality of Tyron’s career at this point and that isn’t the way we do business.

That is like betting on a baseball team that has lost 4 straight games. They’re due!

Get out of here with that. I like the Luque decision line because yes, he is aggressive but he is also a smart fighter who knows he doesn’t need a knockout to beat Woodley. Luque’s volume alone is enough to win him this fight quite comfortably and I see him doing just that.

At (+160), sure!

Mike Pruitt / Author

Mike has been covering sports professionally since 2017 but on the amateur scene for 25 years since when he was 12. Before the internet changed the world, he would keep detailed statistical box scores of NFL and NBA contests, write recaps, and voluntarily commentate games and fights alone in his room. Mike's military experience, Bachelors Degree, and employment thereafter were always rooted in engineering, science, and teaching. Now he enjoys being able to express himself through writing about football, golf, and car racing among other sports but most of all fighting as his life has been rooted in mixed martial arts including competing and teaching for the past 15 years.