UFC 261 Betting Pick: Danaa Batgeral vs Kevin Natividad

The UFC will make their return to fighting in front of a live crowd, yes, fans in attendance, this weekend at UFC 261. It is going to feel a bit weird I would imagine but we will see.

I have a feeling the fans are going to be losing their minds!

One fight where they could possibly hit a decibel high is the Bantamweight duel of strikers Kevin Natividad of Hawaii and Mongolia’s Danaa Batgeral. Both guys love to throw down and even though they are 135ers and we are back in the large Octagon for UFC 261, I still favor a finish.

Danaa is the betting favorite here. He looked solid in his first bout opposite Heili Alatang and the latter has since looked even better. Natividad isn’t quite as slick as his Mongolian opponent but he does pack some power and will be moving down from the UFC Featherweight Division in this matchup.

BetOnline.AG has the betting odds for this matchup. Let’s look at the lines and also go a little deeper on each of the combatants and their respective paths to victory.

Danaa Batgeral (-192) vs Kevin Natividad (+167)

I like Danaa Batgeral in this matchup but his price kind of worries me. (-230) is about the limit for me and I recommend the same for you when we are talking about moneyline betting in MMA.

Now, if you’re rich and you have some insider knowledge then go for it but Danaa just hasn’t done enough inside of the Octagon just be nearly a 2 to 1 favorite over a guy who is going to get the fight he wants.

Batgeral is a striker and so is Kevin Natividad.
  • Kevin brings the heat but I worry about his durability. Now, he is moving down in weight which usually means less punching power to worry about but that might not be the case here with the Mongolian.
  • Batgeral can crack and put away Guido Cannetti in the first round of his last UFC fight. That brings the total for Danaa up to 1-1. I know he will be motivated and with an entire country on his back, can get the win here.

He severely out struck Heili Alateng in his first fight and the Chinese star was forced to wrestle to win. That fight took place in China also and Heili definitely got some home country love which is to be expected especially fighting a guy from Mongolia as the two countries are bitter rivals even in the Olympics.

I believe Danaa will get it done here and I feel drawn to the method of victory prop but who knows? He might really surprise us and get a takedown of his own. The strongest grappler I have ever rolled with was about 5’11 and 170 pounds of WIRED STRENGTH.

Sugi is his name and if you’re ever in the Washington DC Metro Area and say his name, people will know. He was a bronze medalist in the Olympics for Judo and where was he from?

Mongolia. We were the same weight but it felt like he was 300 pounds of solid muscle. The craziest thing was that he wasn’t even using muscle. He was just being technical. Levels, man.

Please Note:
We don’t know that much about Danaa’s overall game yet. He had his debut against a very good opponent. It was a close fight and he got an early KO the next time out. He trains at Jackson Wink MMA and they are excellent round winners so maybe you think decision here.

Then, you look at Kevin Natividad who has been knocked out twice in his short 11 fight career. He does fight with heart but his skill is lacking and that’s a deadly combination.

I think Batgeral works him over in this spot. The UFC is setting up all of the Asian fighters this week.

  • Natividad is kill or be killed type of fighter having gone out on his shield in both of his losses and only won a couple of decisions.
  • Batgeral has finished his opponents in 6 of his 8 wins. I like him here to do the same to Kevin Natividad.

I am a little surprised at the over/under for the fight. You can get the under 2.5 for (+145). I told you about these guys’ history. When you get two guys who bite down and throw, I think someone is getting put out.

In this case, I will say it is going to be Natividad.

I have Batgeral wins inside the distance for (+210).

His odds are virtually the same for a TKO so the books don’t think the chance of a submission is very high.

We don’t know that he isn’t going to sub Kevin but let’s take advantage of the books keeping those odds close and make a play on him to win by finish.

The Bet
Batgeral Inside the distance
Batgeral moneyline

Friday Flyer

Jimmy Crute by Submission: +700

I know this one isn’t likely but the line is just so crazy. It’s Friday, just let it fly. A few bucks on The Brute to slip one under the neck isn’t the craziest thing I have ever heard.

I understand that Anthony is a very good BJJ player but that means he might resort to playing BJJ and not getting back up to his feet. Good BJJ guys get submitted more than fighters who are favorable in wrestling, and this is when guys have established professional careers and at the high level.

The wrestlers don’t play the game.

They play their game and that is based on control not tapping anyone out.

I think Anthony will play too much from the bottom, get his guard passed and then he is going to have to take a step back before he can move forward. That’s when Jimmy The Brute can not live up to his nickname and pull off something slick.

The Bet
Crute by Submission

In Conclusion

The country of Mongolia will be watching as their own, Danaa Batgeral, steps inside of the Octagon for the third time in his young career to fight Hawaii’s, Kevin Natividad.

Danaa also has the backing of the UFC President because why wouldn’t he? They both have somewhat kinda sorta female names.

It’s the same name…

They have each done well for themselves to earn respect, I would say. Johnny Cash was really onto something there.

Get your bets in now, team, and enjoy the roar of the crowd on Saturday night!

Mike Pruitt / Author

Mike has been covering sports professionally since 2017 but on the amateur scene for 25 years since when he was 12. Before the internet changed the world, he would keep detailed statistical box scores of NFL and NBA contests, write recaps, and voluntarily commentate games and fights alone in his room. Mike's military experience, Bachelors Degree, and employment thereafter were always rooted in engineering, science, and teaching. Now he enjoys being able to express himself through writing about football, golf, and car racing among other sports but most of all fighting as his life has been rooted in mixed martial arts including competing and teaching for the past 15 years.

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